How Dominic Thiem Has Become a Grand Slam Title Threat Ahead of Wimbledon 2016
Dominic Thiem is a Wimbledon contender. It’s a surprising transition given that the 22-year-old has spent more than a year establishing a growing resume as a clay-court winner. Suddenly, the strapping Austrian star has put together a respectable streak on grass as he continues to evolve into one of the top players on the ATP World Tour.
There will be skeptics about Thiem’s body of work, namely that six of his seven titles have come at level-250 tournaments with rare clashes against the very best stars. He has followed the David Ferrer formula of playing and winning small tournaments to pile up rankings points through volume. His iron-man approach, with 15 tournaments played so far in 2016, has made him a top-20 player.
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It's important to note that he often goes deep in his draws, but is willing to come back the next week and put out his best efforts, which is what he is doing at Halle this week.
The big question about Thiem was if he could start performing well in Masters 1000 and major tournaments. Success had been slow in arriving in deep draws despite scattered wins against Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer.
That is, until the French Open, where he drove all the way to the semifinals. His ranking has climbed to No. 7 in the world, and he trails only Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Nadal for total points in 2016. His taste of major success is just beginning.
But Wimbledon? What makes “Dream Thiem” a legitimate threat to contend for the most hallowed title in tennis?
Grass Not Greener
Once upon a time, clay-court specialists came to die at the All England Club. Through the Pete Sampras era, the court was slicker, faster and produced more skidding effects from flatter strokes and big serves, like squirting a watermelon seed across ice.
Wimbledon’s own site explains that since 2001 the grass seed mix was changed to 100 percent perennial rye and that the soil is packed harder and smoother, all to ensure more durability and consistency for the players who pound away for two weeks. During colder, damper days, the ball is heavier and slower; during hot, dry days, the ball plays lighter and faster.
Clay king Rafael Nadal won two Wimbledon titles in five final appearances (2006-11) in large part because he had more time to execute shots on slightly bigger hops. By the second week of the tournament, he used to look stronger when the hard-packed soil helped take away more of the slicker speeds.
These are all factors that can help Thiem’s grinding but powerful groundstrokes. Like Stan Wawrinka, Thiem needs that added time to wind up his longer strokes and play aggressive, powerful baseline tennis.
Except Thiem is not just a clay-court specialist. He is the only player to win titles on clay, hard courts and grass in 2016 with his talents. Unlike his legendary countryman Thomas Muster, who dominated the clay world 20 years ago, Thiem can augment his biggest weapons with more versatility.
Added Dimensions
Thiem’s promising career has been refined on clay. The past year he has had to put in the work to grind, win tough points and outlast his competition. He hits a heavy ball that could probably chip and topple most walls after a couple of hours of incessant pounding, and he would probably be one of the few to make the attempt.
Perhaps more important, Thiem gained a lot of experience pulling out three-setters against mid-level competition. In short, he had to learn how to build leads, blow leads, regroup and find ways to win tight matches. Schooling on the ATP tour has paid off.
Meanwhile, Thiem came into Stuttgart last week as mostly an afterthought, with a career 2-6 record on grass. But watching him defeat Roger Federer and Philipp Kohlschreiber—a very tough out on German grass who will meet him shortly in the Halle quarterfinals—showcased under-the-radar elements to his game.
He has a strong serve, even if he falls in love a little too much with his kick serves. He can dial up for power at well over 130 mph (over 209 km/h), and he’s effective coming into the T and hitting deep volleys. He has the footwork and reflexes to finish at net, and his mid-range game is solid.
Thiem has improved his return game in 2016. Nobody’s going to compare him to Djokovic or Andy Murray (Thiem is ranked No. 24 on ATP World Tour’s return leaderboard), but he is reading the ball earlier and creating more break-point opportunities. He’s also chalked up a 18-10 record for the year in tiebreakers, a true test of pressure tennis that frequently separates the winners from the losers.
Wimbledon Forecast
The Austrian is a dynamic player, but the best thing to trust is that he competes hard. He’s willing to travel and play at a high level without making excuses about fatigue or tanking on back-to-back tournament weeks. It’s this kind of mentality that he uses during each point, running hard to set up his footwork, unleashing powerful offense and diving after a ball although up a set and 4-0 in his recent win over Teymuraz Gabashvili.
This is the kind of quality that has made special champions, and these are the habits that have been honed through years of practice and business-like devotion to tennis. Thiem has that “it” quality that is often more the exception than the norm with young, talented players.
He also has the tools to trouble the top players on a given day. A month ago, few observers would have thought of him as a top-10 threat at Wimbledon regardless of his ranking, but depending on his draw and how well he imposes his offense, he could very well be bidding for the quarterfinals or better.
Beyond that, there are bigger goals and challenges for Dream Thiem. If he keeps developing and scoring big wins, watch out.
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