2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down Pro Future of KU's Wayne Selden

Wayne Selden was in the weird spot of having to reinvent himself a few years into his college career.

Selden arrived at Kansas, along with classmate Andrew Wiggins, with the expectation that he would be a one-and-done player. Selden appeared in the lottery in mock drafts as a freshman, and it was easy to see why. He had a grown man's body before he ever stepped foot on KU's campus, and he could overwhelm his peers with his strength.

But that didn't exactly fly at the college level.

Age	21 (Born Sept. 30, 1994)
Team	Kansas
Height	6'5"
Weight	230

"He was just so much more physically impressive than guys his age," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report during this past season. "He had enough of a serviceable handle in a straight line where he could just, boom, knock the defender off balance, get to the basket and there's not two 7-foot guys there waiting for him at the rim.

"I think over the course of his college career, he's shown an adaptability. Wait a minute, this isn't working. There's two 6'10" guys at the rim every time I get there. I'm not athletic enough to finish over the top of those guys, so I have to become a better shooter, and it's worked."

Selden's jumper improved, and he evolved into more of an NBA-friendly 3-and-D wing during his junior season. He's no longer a lottery pick, but he's now more draftable than he was following his freshman or sophomore years. 

Relevant Stats

	PPG	APG	RPG	FG%	3PM/3PA	3P%
2015-16	13.8	2.6	3.4	47.4	74-189	39.2
2014-15	9.4	2.6	2.8	38.2	46-126	36.5
2013-14	9.7	2.5	2.6	43.7	42-128	32.8

Selden was a much more efficient scorer as a junior. In addition to upping his three-point accuracy, he also shot much better from inside the arc. He made only 39.5 percent of his twos as a sophomore, and that number jumped to 54.7 percent this past season.

Strengths

Selden's efficiency this past season had a lot to do with one simple change: Bill Self moved him from shooting guard to small forward. This relieved Selden of some ball-handling duties—Self opted to go with two point guards in his starting lineup—and allowed him to focus on finding easier scoring opportunities.

"I just know my role better," Selden told B/R during the season. "My first year, I didn't know what to do. I was just out there at times, hoping to make shots. I used to worry about scoring. I used to think about it, but now it just comes naturally. All my plays are easy. I don't have to do much to score the ball when you have those two guards. I've just got to get open."

This willingness to change sits well with scouts.

"What's happened to him in college is he's become more of an NBA player now," the scout said. "Generally those guys don't, McDonald's All-Americans, they kind of are what they are, and they just become incrementally better. The way that he's shooting the ball now, that's what is going to give him the greatest opportunity, because he didn't have a polished shooting resume coming into school."

Selden made some subtle changes to his jumper between his freshman and sophomore season: He used to bring the ball over his head and that made it difficult to keep his elbow in. His release is more fundamentally sound now, as he brings the ball in front of his face before he releases it.

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

Improved shot selection also helped bring his percentages up. He would force long twos off the bounce as a sophomore, while most of his shots this past season were either face-up threes or opportunities at the rim off straight-line drives.

Selden has also become much more effective at attacking close-outs and finishing strong around the bucket. He went from shooting 50.7 percent at the rim in 2014-15 to 71.3 percent last year, per Hoop-Math.com. This was a positive return to his pre-college days, when he had a ton of confidence once he got in the lane and wanted to punish those in his path.

(Our thoughts and best wishes are still with Baylor's Ishmail Wainright.)

Selden also improved as a defender under Self's tutelage. He's more aware off the ball than he was earlier in his career, and his long wingspan (measured at 6'10 1/2"at the NBA Draft Combine) helps him contest shots. He also has a knack for coming from behind to block shots in transition.

Weaknesses

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Selden gets himself in trouble when he tries to get too cute off the bounce. He doesn't have a good enough handle to shake defenders off the dribble and is better sticking to straight-line drives. 

Does he have the burst to get to the rim regularly against NBA athletes? He looked super athletic last summer when Kansas played in the World University Games. Selden was the best player in the tournament and helped the Jayhawks win gold, averaging 19.3 points per game.

That had some carryover to KU's regular season, but he didn't look quite as quick against college athletes as he did overseas.

A small meniscus tear in his right knee, first reported by Shams Charania of The Vertical, could have been slowing him down. The injury kept Selden from participating in on-court activities at the Combine, and Selden reportedly played with the injury during part of his junior season. 

While this past year was the most consistent of Selden's career, he still had stretches where he'd struggle shooting and scoring the ball. He could have helped himself during these slumps by attacking the offensive glass, which should be a strength considering his build. Selden would show glimpses, but he never put up rebounding numbers on either end. In fact, teammate Frank Mason, who is six inches shorter, out-rebounded Selden by almost a board per game.

NBA Player Comparison

Selden would be smart to model his game in the pros after Boston Celtics wing Jae Crowder, a physical specimen who keeps things simple. Crowder has improved his jumper over the years to fit the 3-and-D prototype.

	Selden 3P%	Matthews 3P%
Freshman	39.2	43.8
Sophomore	36.5	28.8
Junior	32.8	31.3
Senior	n/a	36.8

Another physical wing with a similar build is Wesley Matthews. He's a superior shooter to Selden, but his college three-point shooting numbers were not as good (see chart). Matthews has also developed a killer post-up game, which is something that Selden lacks but would be smart to add to his skill set.

Best-Case Scenario

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Selden has always looked the part of a NBA shooting guard. He needs to continue improving his jumper and game, but he has the body and physical tools to become a regular in an NBA rotation. He'll likely be a second-round pick, but that doesn't mean he cannot one day become a starter in the league.

Matthews went undrafted and Crowder was a second-round pick. Both Marquette products eventually worked their way into starting roles.

Worst-Case Scenario

Selden must make shots to stick. The worst-case scenario for him is that he loses confidence in his jumper and gets the basketball equivalent of the yips. 

His knees could also be a concern. In addition to his most recent issue with his right knee, Selden had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee following his freshman season. He never missed a game in three seasons at Kansas, so it's possible those were isolated incidents and there's nothing chronic to worry about.

NBA teams are likely having their physicians take a close look at Selden during the pre-draft process. If they find something troubling, it could cause him to go undrafted. 

Prediction

Selden's case is a good example of why guys who don't live up to expectations initially should consider staying in school and not be in a rush to cash in on potential. 

"If he were to come out after his freshman or sophomore year, the results might have been negative for him," the scout said. "But anyone that evaluates him has seen the improvement he's made and is retuning their opinion on him.

"He's not 19. He doesn't have this wild upside, where at full maturation, boy, he's gonna be good. He's almost there. He is what he is. He's got to come in with that same mindset that he's approached last year to this year and continue to improve in little ways." 

Selden did enough as a junior to get drafted, and his improvements suggest he has the work ethic to succeed in the NBA. Plus, it's hard to find guards with a natural build like he has, and now he's learned to play to his strengths. 

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.