2016 Belmont Stakes Horses: Analyzing Every Contender in New York

At last we’ve reached the end of the Triple Crown season with the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes, the Test of the Champion.

No Derby winner, no problem, right?

Nyquist, the Kentucky Derby winner, won’t be in attendance to rebound from his third-place finish in the Preakness Stakes, but Exaggerator returns for the third leg looking to win the back-end races of the Triple Crown.

Several other Derby horses make their return opting for five weeks’ rest between Kentucky’s 10 furlongs and New York’s 12. They include Brody’s Cause, Destin and Suddenbreakingnews, among others.

Looking ahead, each slide corresponds to the horse’s post position and lists his morning-line odds as provided by the New York Racing Association (NYRA) line-maker. Each slide also lists the trainer, the jockey, why the horse can win and a final prediction of his running order.

Thirteen horses means we can’t waste any more time. Read on for a detailed analysis of this year’s Belmont Stakes field.

Post 1: Governor Malibu

Morning-Line Odds: 12-1

Trainer: Christophe Clement

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Why He Can Win: Governor Malibu finished a spirited second to the unbeaten Unified in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, the local prep for the Belmont Stakes.

He showed a great kick up the fence, and he has the winning trainer-jockey combo that upset California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid in 2014 aboard Tonalist.

Breaking from Post 1 gives this closer among closers the chance to save as much ground as possible.

Prediction: Fifth

Post 2: Destin

Morning-Line Odds: 6-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Why He Can Win: Destin entered the Kentucky Derby off an unprecedented eight-week layoff, unheard of even by today’s standards. The idea was to bring him to Kentucky super fresh. He ran a gutsy sixth and stands to move forward given the extra conditioning he received from the Derby.

Todd Pletcher said in a NYRA release:

"

I think Destin ran a sneaky good race in the Derby. He didn't get away from the gate the way we wanted to. We didn't get to the position that we wanted to. He had to work to kind of get to the top of the stretch in the position that we hoped he'd already naturally be in just kind of stalking the pace. He's trained well since then, he's won a race over the Belmont track, and sometimes five weeks in between is helpful when you're taking on horses like Exaggerator that are having their third race in five weeks.

"

Destin has that perfect stalking pace you like to see in a Belmont Stakes horse. The Derby likely gave him a boost in fitness and mental seasoning as well. Pletcher has won two of these races, both off five-week layoffs.

Destin is my pick.

Prediction: First

Post 3: Cherry Wine

Morning-Line Odds: 8-1

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Corey Lanerie

Why He Can Win: Cherry Wine showed a wonderful kick down the lane in the Preakness to get up and beat the Kentucky Derby winner for second.

Cherry Wine failed to catch Exaggerator, which would suggest he’s a notch below in this spot since both colts benefited from the same heated pace in Baltimore.

The post works well for Cherry Wine and trainer Dale Romans says the horse is “on the improve,” according to a NYRA release.

He’ll have to contend with other closers, including stablemate Brody’s Cause, but Cherry Wine always brings it. Saturday will be no different.

Prediction: Fourth

Post 4: Suddenbreakingnews

Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel

Jockey: Mike Smith

Why He Can Win: Yet another closer, Suddenbreakingnews made, ahem, headlines, with his big sweeping move in the Arkansas Derby before ultimately finishing second to, yes, another closer, Creator.

Horse Racing Nation’s Nick Costa noted of Suddenbreakingnews’ fifth-place Derby run that, “Once clear, he accelerated and made his big run. He served notice with his credible effort in Louisville that he's a contender in this spot. He definitely has the pedigree for the distance. Gets a major jockey upgrade.”

Yes, Mike Smith has won a bunch of Belmonts, most recently aboard Palace Malice in 2013. How Smith navigates the wave of closers in this race will be in his Hall of Fame hands.

Prediction: Third

Post 5: Stradivari

Morning-Line Odds: 5-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Why He Can Win: Stradivari earns second billing here at 5-1. He’s a wildly talented colt who made his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Preakness against the Derby winner and Derby runner-up and didn’t flake one bit.

Strad finished fourth that day in the mud and validated his place among this group.

"Stradivari, I think you can make a case that he was behind schedule a little bit leading into the Preakness and sometimes a race like that will move him forward,” Pletcher said in a release. “That's what we're hoping. I think they've both shown that on their days they're capable of running with the best of this crop."

He has a ton of ability, but as much as his trainer thinks he’ll take a step forward, he’ll likely slide back a bit against the fresher, more seasoned Derby horses.

Prediction: Ninth

Post 6: Gettysburg

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Paco Lopez

Why He Can Win: Can Gettysburg win? Technically, yes he can, but he’s in over his head here, especially at this distance.

He finished fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Arkansas Derby.

But in a race with no shortage of closers, he could be the controlling speed in the race, and there have been horses (see Da’Tara in 2008) who get loose on the lead and wobble home a winner.

There are just too many good closers here, especially his stablemate Creator, breaking from Post 13.

Costa writes, “Connections stated, without using the word 'rabbit', that the colt, who will no doubt be on the engine from the start, has been entered to ensure an honest, legitimate pace. Really, I wonder who for?”

Prediction: 10th

Post 7: Seeking the Soul

Horsephotos/Getty Images

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Why He Can Win: Dallas Stewart has inherited the underdog mantle from Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito.

Seeking the Soul comes in with a mere maiden win after not racing as a two-year-old.

He’s in deep water here, and by all accounts doesn’t belong, but as Zito once told me a few a years ago, “The only sure way to lose is to not even run.”

Prediction: 13th

Post 8: Forever d'Oro

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Why He Can Win: Stewart gets to see both his horses side-by-side for the break. That counts for something, right?

In fact, he’ll probably see them cross the wire together too.

To Forever d’Oro’s credit, he has a fine sire in Medaglia d’Oro and has won once over the Belmont oval.

By the end of the race, he’s going to see what real Grade 1 company is—and it won’t be pretty.

Prediction: 11th

Post 9: Trojan Nation

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Patrick Gallagher

Jockey: Aaron Gryder

Why He Can Win: Should this even be entertained?

At least the other donkeys in the bottom half of this field have won before. Trojan Nation earned his Derby ticket by closing for second in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in the mud.

He finished 16th in the Derby, which—sad as that was—was better than it looked.

Costa says on Horse Racing Nation:

"

Seriously folks, did his 16th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby do anything to inspire you to believe that this maiden will suddenly reserve form at the highest class level and win this race? He only finished that high in Louisville because he passed three tiring rivals and one runner that didn't finish the race.

"

On some level, it's understandable that trainers and owners sometimes get one shot at these races, and if you have a colt who technically can run, you take your chance. But at some point you need to realize you have a JV horse who needs to run in JV company so his spirit won’t completely melt.

Prediction: 12th

Post 10: Lani

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga

Jockey: Yutaka Take

Why He Can Win: Hey! Lani is one of two horses who can say he ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

Lani, the winner of the Grade 1 UAE Derby in Dubai and logger of serious airline miles (bags fly free?), is a decent horse, but still a cut below the elite here.

Lani finished ninth in the Derby and fifth in the Preakness, and he’ll probably be right around the top six in this race too, give or take.

“Fatigue could catch up with this runner,” writes Costa, “but it won't be because of the distance factor. His superb pedigree indicates he can excel at the 12 furlongs just fine, unless he becomes weary due to having danced all the Triple Crown dances.”

A tired Lani is still superior to several of these colts.

Prediction: Eighth

Post 11: Exaggerator

Morning-Line Odds: 9-5

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Why He Can Win: The horse everyone will be watching: the Preakness winner and the Derby runner-up.

This is big for Exaggerator. A win here evens the score for Champion Three-Year-Old with Nyquist.

Though Nyquist is still 8 for 9 lifetime with four wins over Exaggerator, Nyquist finished third to Exaggerator in Baltimore, and should Exaggerator win the Belmont, that’s two Triple Crown races and three Grade 1 wins in four starts for the son of Curlin.

Keith Desormeaux, trainer to Exaggerator, said in a NYRA release:

"

It's up to Kent. If the pace is fast, yeah, he'll be far back. If the pace is slow, he'll be closer. It's not a matter of how far back he is; it's a matter of being comfortable through the first half of the race. He just needs to be comfortable.

Kent has got to judge his own pace. He's got to ride with blinkers. It doesn't matter who's out there. He just needs to drop Exaggerator's head, let him get in comfortable 12 and change eighths and they can have as many speed horses as they like. But that's easy for me to say.

"

For all the talk of how deep a closer Exaggerator is, he’s more versatile than that. He can bomb in from the clouds or sit closer and stalk the pace. He’ll probably find a comfy spot in the back end of the second flight of horses and take off from there.

The question becomes: Will he get the jump on the stalkers and raters?

Prediction: Second

Post 12: Brody's Cause

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Luis Saez

Why He Can Win: With five weeks' rest, we may see the best Brody’s Cause to date.

He won the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes from way off the pace and did well to finish seventh in the Derby.

Romans is high on this horse—he always has been—and the Belmont is no different.

"I would say Brody is the more talented, but Cherry Wine is on the improve,” Romans said in a NYRA release. “They're both good horses, but the key going into these big races is they're just training so well and they feel so good and they're so healthy. We're not trying to stop any leaks.”

Both his colts will be, you guessed it, running late, and we’ll see just who is the more talented of the pair: the one with five weeks' rest or the one with three.

Prediction: Sixth

Post 13: Creator

Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Trainer: Steve Asmussen   

Jockey: Irad Ortiz

Why He Can Win: Closer No. 442 of this field of 13. You do the math.

Creator made a name for himself in the Arkansas Derby after blowing by Whitmore and holding off Suddenbreakingnews.

Creator has that rare ability to stare a horse down and emerge ahead. He had a nightmare trip in the Kentucky Derby and still took 13th. Now he gets the services of one of Belmont’s top riders in Irad Ortiz and a rabbit in Gettysburg.

If Ortiz can keep him out of traffic, we could see a return to form from a fresher Creator.

Prediction: Seventh

All quotes via NYRA releases were received first hand.