2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down Pro Future of KU's Perry Ellis
Perry Ellis is a tweener who should be trying to convince NBA teams he has some Draymond Green in him.
That's the best selling point for Ellis, a playmaking power forward who can guard multiple positions. Green has made his kind much more desirable in the NBA.
Ellis doesn't have the bulk or passing acumen of Green—and that's why he's in the second-round-to-undrafted range—but he can do enough things similarly well that he could be a fit in the small-ball happy NBA.
Relevant Stats
| 2015-16 | 16.9 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 53.1 | 43.8 | 78.5 |
| 2014-15 | 13.8 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 45.7 | 39.1 | 73.0 |
| 2013-14 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 54.9 | 47.1 | 76.3 |
| 2012-13 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 47.5 | 66.7 | 73.8 |
Ellis' expanding range was his most noticeable progression as a senior. He had always shot the ball well from deep but in limited attempts.
He suddenly made as many threes as a senior (28) as he had through his first three years in school.
Strengths
Ellis works best in space, whether that's operating out of the pick-and-pop or one-on-one on the blocks. He's an efficient scorer when he has time and space.
Bill Self moved Ellis around a lot to try to create these scenarios. He got better scoring from the perimeter late in his career because he was more comfortable shooting from outside and he improved his ball-handling.
| Age | 22 (Born Sept. 14, 1993) |
| Team | Kansas |
| Height | 6'8" |
| Weight | 225 |
Ellis had the second-fastest three-quarter sprint time of any player at the NBA Draft Combine, and that quickness shows up in his first step. He's effective at attacking his defender's hips and blowing by to get to the bucket.
In the post, or when he gets within about 10 feet of the basket and doesn't have a clear path to the rim, he typically goes to his spin move over his left shoulder. The defense usually knows it's coming but still struggles to stop him. Ellis has a special ability to keep his balance and shoot his jump hook accurately out of that spin.
Ellis' biggest improvement was as a defender. He went from average to one of the key pieces of KU's defensive success—the Jayhawks ranked fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, per kenpom.com. Similar to Green, his value is in his ability to guard multiple positions. This allowed Kansas to switch ball screens 1 through 4 because Ellis could hold his own against quick guards, usually keeping the ball in front of him.
His versatility on both the offensive and defensive ends suggest that he could play power or small forward in the NBA.
Weaknesses
Ellis has always struggled to score at the rim over length. He got better at attacking shot-blockers late in his career as he got more comfortable stepping away from the bucket, but his early success in a game was always key.
If he missed his first couple shots around the bucket, it affected his confidence the rest of the way.
His final college contest against Villanova was an unfortunate reminder of this. Ellis went 1-of-5 from the field with four turnovers in the Elite Eight loss. He is fairly predictable in his go-to moves, and Villanova had him scouted well and executed. They stayed on his left shoulder, making it difficult to spin, and they also tried to minimize the air space whenever he caught the ball.
While he was predictable, he still had scored at least 17 points in the previous eight games before Villanova despite being the key piece most defenses were trying to stop. He knows what moves he wants to use and typically figures out a way to get to his spots and score.
NBA Player Comparison
Self used Ellis in similar fashion to how he used Marcus Morris during his last few years at Kansas, and their games as college players were similar: Both can score from the blocks and stretch the floor.
Their numbers in their final seasons at Kansas almost mirror each other. (Note: Morris left after his junior season, so he was a year younger than Ellis in his final season at KU.)
| Perry Ellis, 2015-16 | 16.9 | 28-64 | 24.3 | 120.1 |
| Marcus Morris, 2011-12 | 17.2 | 26-76 | 26.1 | 121.9 |
It took Morris some time to really find his place in the NBA, but he's settled into the small forward spot for the Detroit Pistons.
Ellis is not quite as strong, as big or as skilled as Morris, but he is quicker. His NBA future could come down to further developing his perimeter skills for small forward in addition to playing power forward, which Morris is able to do.
Trey Lyles is a taller, thicker version of Ellis, with a similar skill set. He had a successful first season in the league, averaging 6.1 points and shooting 38.3 percent from deep. His range on his jumper is going to give him a chance to become a starting-caliber power forward in the league. Like Ellis, he showed off a back-to-the-basket game in college, but it was his face-up skills that made him so intriguing.
Best-Case Scenario
Lyles and Morris were both lottery picks, and Ellis isn't close to that because of his lack of size. But his skill should warrant a second-round pick and should give him a chance to make a roster next season.
Early success in the league would be huge for Ellis. He always played best at Kansas when next to a true center who could serve as the rim-protector and allow him to roam on both ends. Ideally, he'll end up on a team that slots him next to a similar post.
Worst-Case Scenario
Height is almost less important in the evaluation process as length. Ellis doesn't have ideal measurements either way—he measured 6'8 ¼" (with shoes) and had a wingspan of 6'10 ¼" at the combine. Draymond Green is able to make up for his lack of height (6'7") with great length—his wingspan measured 7'1 ¼" at the 2012 Combine—and Ellis doesn't have that luxury.
Green has been fortunate that he ended up with a franchise who realized how to utilize his skill set and embraced spacing. The worst-case scenario is Ellis ending up with a franchise that doesn't feature small-ball lineups and tries to play him in a role that just doesn't fit his strengths.
It's also possible Ellis goes late enough in the draft (or undrafted) and doesn't receive a guaranteed contract this summer. That's rare for a guy who had such a decorated career, but his age and measurables are working against him.
Prediction
Ellis is visibly a quiet guy. He also comes across in person as very coachable when led by a strong personality like Self. A franchise that values culture and has those types of personalities in charge would be a good fit.
Expect him to land with a playoff team that wants guys on the end of the bench who are skilled and model citizens. Ellis checks both of those boxes, and that should buy him some time to figure out what role he can play in the league.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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