The Top 10 2017 Draft Prospects in the SEC
The 2016 NBA draft is still weeks away, but we're already looking ahead to determine where SEC stars like Devin Robinson and Isaiah Briscoe are likely to be chosen in the 2017 NBA draft.
Most draft-projection sites have been too busy churning out 2016 content to start worrying about next year's crop of prospects just yet, but there are three that have posted full, two-round mock drafts for 2017 since late May: DraftExpress, NBA Draft Room and NBADraft.net.
Those projections were used as a sanity check for our top 10. If a player's name appears on at least two of those three mock drafts, he should probably make the cut. Conversely, if a player's name doesn't appear on any of them, perhaps he shouldn't rank in our top five.
With those way-too-early projections as a loose guide, here are the top NBA prospects to watch in the SEC during the 2016-17 college basketball season, listed in ascending order of projected pick.
Honorable Mentions
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These eight players aren't currently projected to be drafted next June, but there are always a few surprises. (Who had Ben Bentil as a possible first-round pick or Jarrod Uthoff and Rosco Allen as potential second-round picks one year ago?) With strong 2016-17 seasons, they might be able to sneak into the draft.
Mustapha Heron, Auburn
The only 5-star recruit joining an SEC school other than Kentucky, Heron should immediately become the star of Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers. Of course, that was also the prevailing sentiment about Malik Newman at Mississippi State this past season, so who knows? But there's more than enough potential here to at least warrant an honorable mention.
Quinndary Weatherspoon, Mississippi State
Newman was supposed to be the freshman star of the Bulldogs, but Weatherspoon ended up making a greater impact. Mississippi State is loaded with incoming 4-star prospects, but look for Weatherspoon to lead the team in scoring by a country mile as a sophomore.
J.J. Frazier, Georgia
Frazier is a slender, 5'10" senior. Age and body type will not be in his favor in 2017 draft evaluations, but the stats are hard to ignore. He averaged 16.9 points, 4.6 points and 4.4 assists per game last season and could be headed for even gaudier numbers in 2016-17 with Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann out of the picture.
Yante Maten, Georgia
Maten also had an impressive 2015-16 campaign for the Bulldogs, averaging 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game as a sophomore. The 6'8" power forward also teased at an expansion to his game, shooting 7-of-11 from three-point range over his last 11 games. He could be this year's Bentil and is the honorable mention most likely to crash the 2017 draft party.
Dusty Hannahs, Arkansas
There will always be a market for lights-out three-point shooters, and Hannahs shot 81-of-187 (43.3 percent) last season.
KeVaughn Allen, Florida
Allen did a lot of things well as a freshman, but he struggled to find his shooting stroke, connecting on just 47.7 percent of his two-point attempts and 31.5 percent of his three-point attempts. For a shooting guard, those numbers are less than ideal. But he could be the star for this year's Gators if he can improve those percentages—a reasonable expectation for an 84.6 percent free-throw shooter.
Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones, Kentucky
Kentucky has five incoming 5-star freshmen. Three of them sit atop our rankings and are unanimously regarded as first-round picks in the three 2017 mock drafts. But Gabriel and Killeya-Jones are nowhere to be found in any of the mocks. It's kind of bizarre that there's so much separation in those projections when there is so little separating them in the recruiting rankings.
Considering this is Kentucky we're talking about, we wouldn't be surprised in the least if either one bolted after one year to become a first-round pick.
10. Matthew Fisher-Davis, Vanderbilt
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DraftExpress Projection: Undrafted
NBADraft.net Projection: 47
NBA Draft Room Projection: Undrafted
Matthew Fisher-Davis is an outstanding three-point shooter. He shot 40.1 percent from downtown as a freshman and 44.6 percent this past season, putting up 177 attempts in each season. During a five-game stretch at the end of February, he shot 21-of-41 (51.2 percent) and averaged 16.2 points per game.
Just don't expect him to do much else.
Over the course of his two years at Vanderbilt, he has attempted more than three times as many three-pointers as two-pointers and averaged just over one free-throw attempt per game.
He occasionally grabs defensive rebounds and even managed to record a double-double against Wofford this past December, but at just 3.6 rebounds per game, it's hardly a strength of his game. Neither is passing the ball, as he averaged just 1.1 assists per game last year.
Perhaps he'll get more involved in those aspects of the game with Wade Baldwin IV and Damian Jones both leaving early for the NBA draft. Even if he doesn't, though, another year of shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc might convince some NBA team that he's enough of a specialist in that area to merit a second-round flier.
9. Moses Kingsley, Arkansas
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DraftExpress Projection: Undrafted
NBADraft.net Projection: 50
NBA Draft Room Projection: 56
One of the best breakout stories of the 2015-16 season, Moses Kingsley catapulted from 10.9 minutes, 3.6 points and 2.5 rebounds per game as a sophomore to 29.5 minutes, 15.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game as a junior. His per-game numbers as a junior were better than his per-40 numbers as a sophomore.
And while he emerged as a double-double threat, his real value remains on the defensive end, where he blocked 76 shots last season and ranked 45th in the nation in block percentage—despite blocking shots less frequently than during his first two seasons at Arkansas.
Had he displayed an all-around game this strong as a freshman, he would be a borderline lottery pick. But Kingsley is now a senior who will turn 22 less than a week into the 2016-17 season. Age is just a number, but when it's a number that high, one needs to have quite the season to be worth considering as anything other than a late second-rounder.
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8. Tyler Davis, Texas A&M
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DraftExpress Projection: Undrafted
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: Undrafted
Despite playing alongside a pair of ball hogs (Danuel House and Jalen Jones), Tyler Davis averaged 19.8 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per 40 minutes as a freshman. The Aggies lose four key players to graduation, but they're still considered a fringe preseason-top-25 team in large part because of Davis.
So what am I missing here? Why isn't anyone projecting the big man to get drafted in 2017?
Perhaps they're just waiting to make sure he can handle a full workload. According to his game log on Sports-Reference.com, Davis failed to record 30 minutes in a game last season. He also played just 17 minutes in the epic double-overtime NCAA tournament game against Northern Iowa.
Hopefully the issue was just roster congestion. With House, Jones, Alex Caruso and Anthony Collins each commanding at least 25 minutes per game and D.J. Hogg, Admon Gilder and Tonny Trocha-Morelos worthy of close to 20 minutes per game, there simply wasn't enough playing time to go around.
After losing half of that rotation as seniors, though, Davis should average at least 30 minutes per game, provided he has the stamina to do so. At that point, he should start flying up the draft boards. He's plenty big and talented enough to stick in the NBA.
7. Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky
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DraftExpress Projection: 46
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: 25
Forecasting Isaiah Briscoe's value in the 2017 NBA draft is impossible, as evidenced by the wide range of expectations just in these three mock drafts.
If he merely replicates his freshman season or even takes a step backward as a sophomore, NBADraft.net has the right idea. Thanks to terrible shooting percentages and 2.4 turnovers per 40 minutes, Briscoe had a sub-100 O-rating (99.6). He also had a below-average D-rating of 101.2.
Combine those two metrics, and it's not hard to conclude that he was the least efficient starter John Calipari has ever had at Kentucky. That may seem unduly harsh, but that's what happens when a guard shoots 46 percent from the free-throw line and 13.5 percent from three-point range.
But we've seen plenty of players improve those percentages seemingly overnight. Justin Anderson shot below 30 percent from three-point range in his first two seasons at Virginia, but before breaking a finger late in the season, he was the most lethal shooter in the country as a junior.
Utah's Jakob Poeltl shot 44.4 percent from the free-throw line as a freshman before connecting on 69.2 percent of his freebies as a sophomore.
We're not asking Briscoe to start shooting like Stephen Curry. We just need to see him start shooting better than DeAndre Jordan. If he works tirelessly this summer and that happens this year, his sheer athleticism could be worthy of a first-round pick in June 2017.
6. Luke Kornet, Vanderbilt
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DraftExpress Projection: 43
NBADraft.net Projection: 53
NBA Draft Room Projection: 44
If Luke Kornet could somehow combine his sophomore-year shooting with his junior-year peripherals, he would be a near lock for a first-round pick.
The 7'1" stretch 5 shot 40 percent from three-point range and 62.9 percent from inside the arc in 2014-15, but he didn't do quite enough in the other areas of the game to put his size to proper use. He averaged just 6.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per 40 minutes while finishing the season with more turnovers committed (41) than shots blocked (38).
Last year, he fixed all of those problems, averaging 10.6 rebounds and 4.4 blocks per 40 minutes while recording nearly three times as many blocks (84) as turnovers (31). But he forgot how to shoot along the way, converting on just 28 percent of his three-point attempts and 49.6 percent of his twos.
In an ideal world, Kornet could become an even better version of Frank Kaminsky. He's not nearly the interior weapon on offense that Frank the Tank was, but Kornet is a better defender who is slightly more committed to the perimeter game.
Kornet might take a step backward without Damian Jones as a safety net to handle the majority of the bruising in the paint, but he also might thrive as the primary frontcourt option for the Commodores.
5. Devin Robinson, Florida
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DraftExpress Projection: 31
NBADraft.net Projection: 59
NBA Draft Room Projection: 37
A 5-star recruit in the class of 2014, Devin Robinson didn't make nearly the splash that was expected of him. He shot just 25.6 percent from three-point range and averaged 2.8 rebounds per game as a freshman.
Year No. 2 went better (9.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 34.0 3P%), but not so well that he would have been drafted—even before undergoing surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot.
We don't know when the injury originated, but it certainly didn't affect his jump shot late in the season. Robinson shot 47.8 percent from downtown in SEC play.
What's strange about Robinson's numbers, though, is that he became less aggressive as a sophomore. Both his percentage of possessions used and percentage of shots taken decreased by more than three points.
With Michael Frazier, Eli Carter and Chris Walker all leaving after the 2014-15 season, it seemed a safe assumption that Robinson would become more of a focal point on offense. Instead, he shied away from the ball and had the lowest usage percentage among starters.
Perhaps the foot injury played a part in that passivity and he'll take on a bigger role at full health with Dorian Finney-Smith out of the picture. At any rate, if he expects to be a late first-round pick in 2017, he'll need to prove he can do more than he has shown thus far.
4. Antonio Blakeney, LSU
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DraftExpress Projection: Undrafted
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: 42
Out of the shadows and into the spotlight, Antonio Blakeney should be headed for a monster season with Ben Simmons, Tim Quarterman, Keith Hornsby and Josh Gray no longer on the roster—even though DraftExpress and NBADraft.net seem to disagree.
After a hot start against the likes of McNeese State and South Alabama, the freshman shooting guard struggled for the better part of two months. As December bled into January, he strung together five consecutive games with seven points or fewer and subsequently lost his starting job.
Over the final 11 games of the season, though, he was outstanding. Blakeney put up 18.6 points per game while shooting 38.3 percent from three-point range and averaging 5.5 free-throw attempts. But few seemed to notice, because we were already up to our eyeballs in stories about the projected No. 1 pick likely missing the NCAA tournament.
Blakeney was only used on 17.4 percent of possessions last season, but look for that number to nearly double as he leads the SEC in scoring for a sub-.500 team.
3. Malik Monk, Kentucky
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DraftExpress Projection: 20
NBADraft.net Projection: 23
NBA Draft Room Projection: 10
Malik Monk is the undisputed YouTube mixtape champion of this year's recruiting class. One particular video that HoopMixtape.com posted two years ago has eclipsed 1.1 million views.
He has only gotten better since then, and his hops have people saying some crazy things.
In a video about Monk that Bleacher Report posted in March, John Calipari said, "He does things normal players—even elite players—struggle to do. I've seen it one other time: Derrick Rose."
Last July, Ricky O'Donnell of SB Nation wrote, "It sounds sacrilegious to compare anyone's bounce to Russell Westbrook, but at his best, Monk can be that explosive."
There are minor concerns about his dribbling and defense, but he's such a gifted scorer at every level that those issues seem trivial. He has the talent to come in and immediately be as dominant on offense as Jamal Murray was over the latter half of last season.
2. De'Aaron Fox, Kentucky
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DraftExpress Projection: 11
NBADraft.net Projection: 6
NBA Draft Room Projection: 14
It shouldn't be long before people are comparing De'Aaron Fox to Kris Dunn.
Fox has all the attributes in a point guard that are just as valuable as they are impossible to teach. He's an elite defender with quick hands who possesses lightning-fast speed and incredible court vision. It's as if the game is being played in slow motion around him.
But he isn't a great shooter and sometimes makes poor decisions when trying to do too much on offense, which (along with injuries) were the biggest holes in Dunn's game.
Those are coachable issues, though, as Dunn proved by improving his three-point shooting and turnover rate each season. With Fox, it's just a question of how quickly he gets there.
Then again, John Wall shot 32.5 percent from three-point range and averaged 4.0 turnovers per game as a freshman at Kentucky and was still taken with the No. 1 overall pick in 2010. If Fox passes, steals and runs well enough, the occasional brick won't keep him from being a lottery pick.
1. Edrice "Bam" Adebayo, Kentucky
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DraftExpress Projection: 9
NBADraft.net Projection: 21
NBA Draft Room Projection: 8
ESPN's Jeff Borzello wrote on Wednesday, "One of the Wildcats' biggest weaknesses last season was their interior defense, with Skal Labissiere and Marcus Lee unable to consistently hold their own against opposing big men. (Bam) Adebayo brings strength and rebounding as well as one of the best motors in the 2016 class."
That motor is what will have people raving about Adebayo and comparing him to Julius Randle—the 6'9" wrecking ball who averaged 15.0 points and 10.4 rebounds per game for Kentucky before being selected with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 NBA draft.
Between the McDonald's All-American Game and the Jordan Brand Classic, Adebayo shot 13-of-17 from the field and averaged 15.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals. Of particular note, 12 of his 17 rebounds came on the offensive glass.
Feel free to chalk that up as meaningless drivel in all-star games if you choose, but that type of aggression in exhibition games will inevitably translate to results in the real thing. Adebayo should immediately be the primary frontcourt weapon in this offense and could become the most coveted big man in the entire country by next June.
Recruiting data courtesy of 247Sports.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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