French Open 2016 Men's Semifinals: Murray vs. Wawrinka Preview, Predictions
Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka survived wet weather and brushed aside their competition to arrive at the 2016 French Open semifinals. They came in as the favorites in the bottom half of the draw, and they will duel on Friday for one spot in the final at Roland Garros.
On one side, you have No. 2-ranked Murray with his tight-fitting white-and-black attire, which signifies more of the usual. He’s back with ferocious retrieving and a cerebral offense, lately with a dash of calculated aggressiveness. His feistiness has matured on red clay, and he looks to dictate with his superior consistency.
In contrast, the blocky Swiss has donned bright yellow, hoping that the sheer weight of his groundstrokes will be too overbearing for his opponent. The defending champion has picked up his game in the past week and looks more like the championship contender that his supporters had hoped to see.
It’s a level match in some ways but is a contrast in styles and methodology. Yet, for all their talent and accomplishments, it might be an important X-factor that will spell the difference for who moves on and who goes home.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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It's been a close and competitive rivalry, but Wawrinka deserves the edge despite trailing 8-7 in his 15 head-to-head matches with Murray. There are two reasons.
First, Wawrinka has won all three meetings since 2013, which was when he began to rise up the rankings as a legitimate contender. He defeated Murray at 2013 Monte Carlo and the 2013 U.S. Open when Murray was at his peak, although the Scot had back problems when Wawrinka knocked him off in the latter.
Wawrinka also took out Murray in the 2015 year-end round robin, but the Scot had his attention divided with his upcoming Davis Cup final.
Second, they met on clay in 2008 and 2013, and Wawrinka swept Murray both times. The Swiss needs the slower courts to wind up his bigger strokes, and it's usually been a more comfortable surface for him.
Murray and Wawrinka both made it as far as the French Open semifinals a year ago, with Murray pushing Novak Djokovic to five sets and Wawrinka defeating Djokovic in the final. As the defending champion, Wawrinka is a target, but he has also proved he can finish the job.
Murray at 2016 French Open
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The early going at the French Open was not as scripted for the Scot. Murray had defeated Djokovic for the Rome title and looked for all the world as the star with the most momentum, but by Round 3 he was sputtering.
Murray had to rally from a two-set deficit against veteran Radek Stepanek, and then he followed up with another five-set struggle against Frenchman Mathias Bourgue. Some observers wondered if Murray would survive the first week.
The turnaround occurred with back-to-back sweeps over two massive servers in Ivo Karlovic and John Isner. Points were shorter, and Murray’s focus was keener, as he knew he had to make returns and not fritter away his offensive control. The Scot was able to gain extra rest during the rain, and he went out and destroyed another Frenchman’s dreams of the final weekend, rallying for a strong four-set victory against the accomplished Richard Gasquet.
The Gasquet match showed some of his chippiness, and the snarl that he needs for Wawrinka will definitely be there.
Wawrinka at 2016 French Open
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Like Murray, Wawrinka was nearly ousted in the first round. He traded blows with Lukas Rosol, with each topping 50 winners and 40 unforced errors. It was a dangerous affair that illustrated some of Wawrinka’s disappointing upsets from the past.
Could he control his big strokes or would he self-destruct? He won the fourth and fifth sets and got his scare out of the way.
But the bruising Wawrinka has played the only way that he knows how. High-risk blasts have poked holes through his opponents, and he will continue to win so long as he keeps his unforced errors under control. Here are his winners (listed first) and unforced errors in each of his matches so far, according to the Roland Garros website:
- First round vs. Lukas Rosol (56-46)
- Second round vs. Taro Daniel (62-40)
- Third round vs. Jeremy Chardy (36-22)
- Fourth round vs. Viktor Troicki (67-50)
- Quarterfinal vs. Albert Ramos-Vinolas (49-43)
Wawrinka has now navigated the less predictable matches, and he is set to let it all hang out against Murray.
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The Biggest X-Factor
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Murray and Wawrinka are going to play to their strengths, which will be physical blows from the Swiss and scrambling strokes from the Scot. We’ll look at their strategies and methods for attack in the slides that follow, but the deciding X-factor could be how well they contain their emotions.
In short, who will be more composed?
Against Gasquet, Murray flashed some of his cantankerous nature. He groused about the overhead cameras and yelled toward his box as if calling for them to match his intensity. It’s interesting because Murray does not have a head coach right now, but the sparks were flying as the Scot pulled away in his latest match.
Does he have to play this way in order to stay fired up and exhibit a dose of flair? Or does Murray become victim of too much emotion, like his famous meltdown in the 2015 Australian Open final, that was the downfall in his defeat to Djokovic?
Wawrinka has been known to battle himself as well. Never mind that he broke his racket in this year’s Monte Carlo loss to Nadal. There are times when Wawrinka’s inconsistencies lead to questionable effort. When things go downhill, his physical game becomes too impatient; it's as if he is trying to get it all back with one winning blast after another. It’s not that he’s giving up, but it looks as if he gives up on his game plan in those instances.
The Swiss also admitted to Simon Briggs of the Telegraph last November that the French Open title affected his follow-up efforts. Will he feel self-imposed pressure against Murray?
Who will crack first, and how will he respond? There’s a good chance that a late second-set crisis for the trailing player or perhaps a key moment in the third or fourth set could test someone’s emotions. The winner will probably do a better job of keeping it all together.
Murray Will WIn French Open Semifinal If...
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Although Andy Murray has been a star for the past decade, it has been difficult for him to win big matches against Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. They are bigger champions with bigger weapons, and Murray has usually needed his best play to coincide with an off day from his rival.
Given a more favorable matchup, Murray can play the way he wants, which is a strong defensive game with the time and patience to outgrind a lesser opponent. Against Wawrinka, he wants to grind out as many long rallies as possible and coerce the Swiss to try for low-percentage shots.
Murray will need to convert a high percentage of first serves to move around Wawrinka’s return box. He would like 70 percent like he served against Richard Gasquet. It will take pressure off his weaker second serve, especially for important points late in close games. Wawrinka is not a great returner, but he can take advantage of short balls.
One nagging problem for Murray has been his less than reliable backhand. Known as a consistent asset, it was sporadic against Gasquet, producing eight winners but 18 unforced errors. He will find it difficult to defeat Wawrinka without a solid backhand.
Above all, Murray must force Wawrinka to hit on the run. If the Swiss constantly has time to blast from a stationary position, his power could leave pockmarks all over the court. Murray must use both corners and win with his legs as much as with his endurance and head.
Wawrinka Will Win French Open Semifinal If...
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I’m surprised that Wawrinka was able to recover from his spring swoon, similar to last year. He had not fared well at Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome, and some writers dismissed his chances to defend his French Open title. To his credit, Wawrinka has picked up momentum against middle-of-the-pack contenders, but now the real test begins.
Earlier, we cited how important it is for Wawrinka to control a healthy ratio of winners to unforced errors. Against Murray, this will be even more crucial because Wawrinka is not going to win a game of cat and mouse. Can he get the time to swing from the heels, and will there be enough short balls for him to put away?
Part of the reason behind Wawrinka’s success is not his stylistic and powerful one-handed backhand but how much damage he can do with his forehand. For his first five matches, he has produced twice as many winners (104) with the forehand compared to his backhand (52).
The main thing for Wawrinka’s backhand is to apply steady pressure on Murray’s backhand. The Swiss is able to force errors with bigger pace, but it will not be as easy against the returning abilities of the Scot. If Wawrinka goes big and errors pile up, it will be his undoing.
Wawrinka’s serve and forehand will probably be there, but his key is consistency and time with a powerful backhand.
Prediction
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This has the potential to be a classic match. The baseline bashing from the defending champion Wawrinka must overcome the steadier Murray, who has also been prone to big-match hiccups. Both are sitting on two career majors with a chance at the final, and neither will want to give an inch.
Two weeks ago, Murray was cruising at a higher level than Wawrinka, but the gap has closed, and it's Murray who must prove he can finish off Wawrinka on clay. It will not be easy, and there will be times the Swiss pushes him around, but the Scot is a fighter, even if his reputation is somewhat maligned against the Big Three.
Unless Wawrinka is lights out with his execution, Murray should have enough for four tough sets, or barring a slow start, he will rally back for a five-set victory. If it comes down to a few errors, the Scot will be steadier when the pressure reaches its crescendo.
Murray will finally play for the French Open title.
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