French Open 2016 Men's Final: Djokovic vs Murray Preview, Predictions
Somebody's going to win their first French Open title Sunday. But Novak Djokovic is probably the only man who might leave Roland Garros feeling like a colossal failure.
The 11-time Grand Slam champion simply has more to lose.
Either he or Andy Murray will make history with a win at the 2016 French Open. Murray's already broken new ground by becoming the first British man to reach the final since 1937.
Djokovic, on the other hand, is playing in his third consecutive final at Roland Garros. Anything less than the title would be a devastating defeat.
Playing in his 20th Grand Slam final, the Serbian will try to become the first man to hold all four Grand Slam titles at once since Rod Laver in 1969—the year he won a calendar Grand Slam. With a win, Djokovic would join Laver, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Andre Agassi, Roy Emerson, Don Budge and Fred Perry, as the only men to win all four major tournaments.
A win would move Djokovic ahead of Laver on the all-time Slams list and put him in the greatest-of-all- time discussion. A loss would elevate Murray to a similar status: one title short of a career Slam.
Both looked sharp in their semifinal matches. Djokovic defeated Dominic Thiem 6-2, 6-1, 6-4, and Murray took out Stan Wawrinka, 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 to set up a clash between the top two seeds.
Although they're ranked No. 1 and No. 2, the gulf between their achievements is wide. Two years ago, Djokovic took hold of the ATP World Tour, leaving Murray and the rest of the field far behind.
Murray hopes to put the brakes on the runaway Serbian train. But can he? The following is a preview and prediction of the 2016 French Open men's final.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 23-10. However, Murray snapped a four-match losing streak to Djokovic in Rome in May. Despite their long rivalry, this is only their fifth meeting on clay. Djokovic holds a 3-1 edge on the surface.
*Source: ATP World Tour
How Djokovic Has Looked So Far at the French Open
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Djokovic arrives at the final having dropped just one set (in the fourth round against Roberto Bautista Agut).
Djokovic vanquished future star Dominic Thiem with ease in the semis. Calm and in control, Djokovic limited his unforced errors to 15—the lowest for him this tournament.
After his win over Thiem, Djokovic told reporters it was his best match of the tournament. "As I was hoping after the long fourth round that I'm going to start playing better as the tournament progresses, and that's what's happening now."
In the quarterfinals, other than the first set, Djokovic had few problems with Tomas Berdych.
How Murray Has Looked So Far at the French Open
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Murray passed a huge test in dethroning defending champion Stan Wawrinka in the semifinals. Despite, Wawrinka third-set win, Murray delivered a good, old-fashioned beatdown.
Tennis writer Jacob Steinberg posted on the Guardian's blog, "In the Eurosport studio, they’re calling this Andy Murray’s best-ever performance on clay. It was some effort to beat the defending champion, and although he lost the third set, the reality is Murray thrashed Stan Wawrinka today."
It's hard to believe how bad Murray looked in the early rounds. He fell behind two sets to 37-year-old Radek Stepanek in the first round. In the second round, Murray got off to a better start, taking a 6-2, 2-0 lead over French qualifier Mathias Bourgue. But Murray failed to sustain his momentum and had to pull off another fifth-set victory.
Murray's play was so sluggish that the Telegraph questioned, "What's Behind Andy Murray's Malaise?"
Perhaps Murray just needed a big challenge. He got it, with back-to-back matches against two of the biggest servers in the game—Ivo Karlovic and John Isner. Murray defeated both in straight sets.
Although he dropped the first set against Richard Gasquet in the quarterfinals, Murray was never in serious trouble in that match.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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Djokovic's mindset is a serious X-factor. Throughout the French Open, he's appeared relaxed. Whether playing with ball boys and ball girls or borrowing an umbrella from a fan during rain delays, the Serb seems to have sought out ways to relax.
But this is the final—the place where his Roland Garros dreams have died in the dirt three times.
Weather may also be a factor. The worst of the rain appears to be over. However, conditions could change. According to Weather.com, there is a 20 percent chance of rain Sunday. Heavy conditions may favor the harder-hitting Scot.
Djokovic Will Win If...
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Djokovic will be fighting Murray and ghosts of Roland Garros' past. The Serbian must keep his mind clear of his failures and stay focused on the task at hand: beating Murray.
Murray has improved his play on clay. However, Djokovic remains the better player on this surface. It's one thing to jump out in front in a best-of-three contest. But Djokovic can take comfort in knowing he can outlast Murray in a fifth set.
Djokovic must attack the big Scot's second serve, perhaps the weakest link in Murray's game. The more consistent of the two, the Serb must extend rallies and keep balls deep, forcing Murray to defend the baseline.
Murray Will Win If...
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Murray has to get off to a quick start. In every win he has over Djokovic, Murray won the first set. He won't be able to battle back from two sets down against the title-hungry Serbian.
If Murray hopes to win, he'll have to use some of those ugly drop shots he tried against Gasquet. It won't be pretty, and that's fine. Murray's not going to win on style points.
Instead, he'll have to get downright dirty. He needs to slice and dice like a Ginsu knife. He'll also need to come in more often behind super-serving. Aces will be hard to come by on this murky red clay. However, service winners are just as effective. Murray must get a high percentage of first serves in like he did against Karlovic (75).
Prediction
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Both men are strong, physically fit and entering the finals having played perhaps their best match of the tournament.
Yet as solid as Murray looks, he lacks the type of kill shot like the backhand Wawrinka brought to last year's final. Murray won't cave or choke. Djokovic will just outplay him Sunday.
The Serbian will take down Murray in four sets and finally get the Roland-Garros monkey off his back.
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