French Open 2016 Women's Semifinals: Muguruza vs. Stosur Preview, Prediction
Mother Nature is wreaking havoc at the 2016 French Open.
After several days of rain-soaked calamity, the quarterfinals finally kicked off on Wednesday. While the skies may have still been overcast, Garbine Muguruza and Samantha Stosur absolutely shined. Now, they’ll battle one another for a shot at the title on Friday.
The fourth-seeded Muguruza’s presence in the semifinals isn’t all that surprising. A rising force in the game, she’s inching closer to breaking through the Grand Slam barrier.
Because of several top-10 players falling and an upset win of her own, the veteran Stosur will oppose Muguruza in a heavyweight semifinal. With a victory, she’ll reach her second championship match in Paris.
These two power hitters are ready to push each other to the limit.
Who’ll best weather the storm?
Muguruza at the 2016 French Open
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Muguruza’s French Open campaign started off with a whimper when she lost the first set of her opening match to 353rd-ranked Anna Karolina Schmiedlova.
But she wouldn’t let that stumble send her to an early exit.
She’s been all business from there, winning her last 10 sets without much resistance. After storming back against Schmiedlova, Muguruza coasted by Myrtille Georges and Yanina Wickmayer to reach the fourth round.
There, she took out an in-form Svetlana Kuznetsova for a straightforward 6-3, 6-4 victory. A match that on paper could’ve gone either way instead went to the surging Muguruza.
In the quarterfinals, she went down an early break to Shelby Rogers, an American appearing in her first Grand Slam quarterfinal. Muguruza didn’t panic, eventually breaking Rogers twice on the way to a 7-5, 6-3 win.
On the big points versus Rogers, Muguruza proved her mettle.
She’ll need that same grit to get past Stosur.
Stosur at the 2016 French Open
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It took four years, but Stosur is back in a major semifinal.
The Aussie's results steadily dipped during that span, leaving many to wonder if the 2011 U.S. Open champion would ever reach this point again.
She's proved the naysayers wrong during the last two weeks in Paris.
Turning back the clock, Stosur survived a stiff 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 test from Misaki Doi in the first round. She followed up that win with an easier one over Shuai Zhang to book a clash with last year's Roland Garros runner-up, Lucie Safarova.
Coming into their match, Stosur owned a dismal 3-11 record against Safarova. But this time, she wouldn't back down from her lefty foe. Plenty of twists and turns followed in a roller-coaster match. Ultimately, Stosur gutted out a 6-3, 6-7 (0), 7-5 victory.
Buoyed by that performance, she toppled sixth seed Simona Halep 7-6 (3), 6-3 to earn payback for a brutal loss to the Romanian in last month's Madrid Open. Rain stretched out their duel over the course of three days, leaving Stosur little time to rest for her quarterfinal meeting with Tsvetana Pironkova.
Fighting from behind for most of the day, Stosur clawed ahead for a 6-4, 7-6 (8) win. Reeling off four straight games to win the first set and coming back from a 1-5 hole in the second set tiebreak, Stosur refused to quit.
Her reward for that resilience is the biggest match she's played in years.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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They’ve played one another only once before: a 7-5, 3-6, 6-1 win for Stosur in the second round at the 2014 Madrid Open.
That meeting took place before Muguruza’s breakthrough, and she’s come a long way since then. A different caliber player in 2016, it’s tough to draw too much from her performance in that match.
While there’s not any recent history between these two to study, if their sole matchup is any indication, we should be in store for a physical battle.
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Biggest X-Factors?
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Stosur's reached this stage three previous times (2009, 2010 and 2012), so she won't be intimidated by the enormity of the situation. This environment is nothing new to her.
On the other side, Muguruza is playing her first semifinal in Paris—only the second time she's advanced this far at a major in her career. There's going to be a lot of stress on her shoulders, something the Spaniard can't let rattle her.
One factor Muguruza, 22, has working in her favor is the 10-year age gap between her and Stosur, 32. After needing three days just to take out Halep in the fourth round, Stosur's sluggish start against Pironkova may be a sign of fatigue setting in. She had to work extremely hard to come back in that match, draining even more energy.
The younger Muguruza's legs will be fresher should this match go the distance.
Muguruza Will Win If...
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If the Spaniard plays to her strengths of seeing the ball and hitting the ball, this match can be hers.
When Muguruza gets going, watch out, because she can smoke shots from both wings. One of the elite strikers in women's tennis, she thrives on clay, which gives her even more time to load up and bash winners.
Staying aggressive and targeting Stosur's backhand is a must if Muguruza wants to advance to the final.
While returning serve, Muguruza has to be wary of Stosur's heavy kick. She'll have to make a concerted effort to step in and take the ball a little earlier rather than being pulled off court. If she does, Muguruza can create precious break-point opportunities.
Stosur Will Win If...
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On the flip side, Stosur can't let Muguruza bully her from side to side.
Although she has a huge forehand of her own, Stosur would do well to mix things up and throw different looks at Muguruza. Give her some off-speed stuff to hit rather than pace on every shot. Well-timed slices and drop shots can throw off Muguruza's rhythm and keep her out of her comfort zone.
The same mentality applies to Stosur's serve. Yes, she has an awesome kick. But relying on it too much isn't the way to go. While that serve is her bread and butter, Stosur needs to make Muguruza guess on returns.
Wisdom and guile can guide Stosur past her young challenger.
Prediction
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Both women are peaking at the perfect time and are on a roll. Yet only one of them can keep their journey going.
Will youth or experience prevail?
Expect a competitive matchup. This one will be decided from the baseline with Stosur and Muguruza looking to dictate with their powerful forehands. They’ll keep throwing haymakers at one another, though Stosur’s craftiness can make things interesting.
A three-set battle is definitely possible. In the end, Muguruza will seize the opportunity to play in her first French Open final on Saturday.
All statistics are courtesy of WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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