French Open 2016 Women's Semifinals: Williams vs. Bertens Preview, Prediction
The top half of the women’s draw at the 2016 French Open has been whittled down to two players: Serena Williams and Kiki Bertens.
On the verge of a record-tying 22nd Grand Slam victory, defending champion Williams is through to her seventh consecutive major semifinal. After breezing through her first four matches, the world No. 1 faced a tougher-than-expected challenge from Yulia Putintseva in the quarterfinals. But like she usually does, Williams raised her game when it mattered most.
Trying to deny her shot at history will be the red-hot Bertens, a relative unknown who’s enjoying the run of her life. The young 24-year-old Dutch already has a few top-10 upsets under her belt this tournament. Can she add the ultimate one?
Here’s what to expect from this matchup. Though Williams is a heavy favorite, Bertens shouldn’t be underestimated.
Williams at the 2016 French Open
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The top-seeded Williams crushed Magdalena Rybarikova and Teliana Pereira in the first two rounds, dropping a combined five games in those matches.
Her next opponent, Kristina Mladenovic, made her work much harder. The Frenchwoman stayed calm while an agitated Williams struggled to capitalize on break points.
In fact, she'd break Mladenovic only once during the match, converting in the 10th game to take the first set.
Rain halted a competitive second set right before the tiebreak. Despite falling behind 2-5, Williams came back and pulled out a 6-4, 7-6 (8) win.
Spurred by that performance, she bounced Elina Svitolina 6-1, 6-1 in the next round to reach the quarterfinals against Yulia Putintseva. But the 21-year-old Russian seized the spotlight.
The counterpunching Putintseva shocked Williams by stealing the first set. Supremely athletic, it seemed like she was tracking down every ball. Not until late in the second set did the world No. 1 finally alter her tactics.
Putintseva couldn't counter that increased aggression, and Williams surged ahead to win eight of the last nine games.
Now, she's one victory away from her fourth French Open final.
Bertens at the 2016 French Open
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Bertens didn't luck into the semifinals—she earned this privilege after conquering a tough section of the draw.
In her opening match, Bertens upset third-ranked and reigning Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 for the biggest win of her career. A seesaw match went the way of the upstart, who conquered some late jitters to cross the finish line.
After making easy work of Camila Giorgi in the second round, Bertens faced elimination in a marathon match against 19-year-old Daria Kasatkina. Both women had multiple match points, but Bertens held on for a 6-2, 3-6, 10-8 victory.
Playing the underdog role yet again, Bertens tamed the power of rising star Madison Keys to reach a quarterfinal date with eighth-ranked Timea Bacsinszky. Trading breaks in the first set, Bertens battened down the hatches and secured a 7-5, 6-2 win over the Swiss.
The fairytale story continued for Bertens, who fell to the ground in disbelief at what she accomplished.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Williams holds a 1-0 lead in this head-to-head matchup, their sole meeting coming in the second round at last year's U.S. Open.
A sloppy, timid start by the American on that day enabled Bertens to serve for the first at 5-4. But she eventually crumbled, as Williams regrouped in the nick of time and found her game.
Although Bertens lost in a tiebreak, she didn't quit in the second set and kept fighting. In the end, it wasn't quite enough, as Williams sailed by her for a 7-6 (5), 6-3 victory.
Interestingly, these two played one another in doubles a few days ago. Bertens partnered with Johanna Larsson to knock the Williams sisters out in the third round.
They just can't escape one another in Paris.
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Biggest X-Factors?
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Before this event, Bertens had only advanced past the second round of a major once (2014 French Open) in her career.
She’s never dealt with the type of circus awaiting her in the semifinals. Nerves will surely be a factor for her. And a decorated champion such as Williams is the last opponent you want to face if confidence is an issue.
Nowhere will she feel that pressure more than on her own serve, which she's struggled to protect so far in Roland Garros. Hitting too many second serves to Williams could spell doom for her hopes.
A recurring theme on clay, this one will be decided by who best utilizes break-point opportunities.
Williams Will Win If...
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The formula for success isn't that complicated for Williams: power and more power.
Few players in the game can withstand her baseline artillery, which is made all the more potent when her first serve is clicking.
Even on clay, the one-two punch of a Williams serve followed by a forehand lets her take control of points. Hitting flat, hard shots will put Bertens in an uncomfortable position she may not be able to recover from.
The Bertens serve is inconsistent (and that's putting it mildly). Attacking it shouldn't be a problem for a big hitter like Williams.
By taking away Bertens' timing and keeping her on the run, Williams can cruise to victory.
Bertens Will Win If...
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Williams feeds off power. So Bertens would be wise to bring an all-court game plan rather than just camping out at the baseline.
An accomplished doubles player, Bertens should look to come to the net when opportune moments arrive to best utilize her volleying skills. And rather than trying to engage in long rallies, she needs to go for her shots when there's an opening. That mindset caught Williams off guard in their previous meeting.
Bertens must also improve her first-serve percentage and cut down on the double faults, an area of weakness that an aggressive returner like Williams will pounce on.
To give herself the best chance to pull off the upset, Bertens can't give Williams continuous looks at her second serve.
Prediction
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On paper, this match looks decidedly lopsided.
But so many prognostications have gone awry during this wacky fortnight; nothing is guaranteed. Maybe Bertens has some more magic left and can steal a set off Williams. Facing the sport’s most dominant presence, she’ll need a herculean effort to take this one the distance.
Don’t count on it happening.
Williams will seize the moment and end Bertens’ Cinderella run. Another French Open final awaits the top seed.
All statistics are courtesy of WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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