2016 French Open: Bold Predictions for the 2nd Week
The second week of the 2016 French Open will move on without Roland Garros' greatest conqueror—Rafael Nadal. The Spanish champion’s shocking withdrawal has left a hollow aftermath for tennis fans who anticipated a semifinal showdown with Novak Djokovic.
Even with the drama of Nadal vs. Djokovic no longer possible, attention will turn more to the world No. 1 and his quest to finally win that first French Open title and secure his career Grand Slam, something only accomplished on three different surfaces by Nadal, Roger Federer and Andre Agassi in the Open era.
Meanwhile, the WTA has a few stars looking to get their breakthrough against Serena Williams, who has firmly re-established herself as the favorite once again.
We will also measure other significant players and matches as we complete our “Bold Predictions” column. Who could be a spoiler and which ATP and WTA star will go on to win the French Open?
It should be an exciting week to come.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas Will Defeat Defending Champion Stan Wawrinka
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Let’s start with the shocker. Could Albert Ramos-Vinolas really defeat defending French Open champion Stan Wawrinka?
Yes.
Understand that Ramos-Vinolas does not have the kind of career resume that should give him any chance to win his quarterfinal opportunity against Wawrinka. Even as a Spaniard, he has had a career losing record on clay, and he entered the French Open having lost 18 of 22 career matches in majors. He had never been past the second round at a major.
Suddenly, the lefty Ramos-Vinolas has defeated two Argentine players, survived a fifth set against American Jack Sock's power and pulled off a straight-set demolition of No. 8 seed Milos Raonic.
Why can he win against Wawrinka? Momentum and consistency. Ramos-Vinolas is facing a stronger player but one who is prone to self-destructive errors. The Swiss has picked himself up after nearly blowing his opening match, but he has played with less championship mettle the past few months. Even his latest win over Viktor Troicki was like wading through quicksand.
This could be the career highlight for Ramos-Vinolas—a stunning semifinal chance against Andy Murray. It could happen.
Elina Svitolina Will Upset Serena Williams in the 4th Round
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The time could be now for Elina Svitolina to introduce herself to more of the tennis world.
The 21-year-old Ukrainian is one of many “future stars” boasting a modern game with a variety of power and skill from the baseline in. Ranked No. 20, she needs a few big wins at major venues if she is to roar into the top 10 in the near future.
Svitolina will battle tooth and nail with world No. 1 Serena Williams, and there is a good chance she wins. She has not been scarred by Serena as other veteran stars like Maria Sharapova (2-18) and Agnieszka Radwanska (0-10), who have combined for only two wins in 28 matches against the American superstar.
It’s a match that should go three sets, and we’re taking Svitolina for the upset. She was a French Open quarterfinalist last year because of her excellent footwork, aggressive baseline strokes and the kind of steely drive that could make her a star.
If she does get this win, there’s a clear road to the semifinals, as long as she can keep her focus on pulling off the Serena upset.
Ernests Gulbis to Upset David Goffin
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David Goffin has been one of the bright stories this spring. The slight Belgian has honed his accurate strokes to win some big matches, including semifinal showings at Indian Wells and Miami, and he got to the quarterfinals in Rome.
Right now, Goffin only needs to defeat Ernests Gulbis to get to the French Open quarterfinals and enter the top 10 of the ATP rankings for the first time. He would then likely get a chance at another player hot on the trail for his entrance into the top 10 in hard-hitting Austrian Dominic Thiem.
But it’s too neat of a story.
In the way, Goffin has the talented but wildly inconsistent Gulbis—a player who defeated Roger Federer on his way to the 2014 French Open semifinals. Since, Gulbis virtually dropped off the tour with lackluster play and questionable motivation.
Now he’s suddenly back after solid wins over Andreas Seppi and Joao Sousa and a gift when Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had to withdraw with a leg injury after leading 5-2 in their third-round match.
Gulbis will not be favored, but he has plenty of ways to trouble Goffin. His backhand is strong, and his serve and power are superior. If he is rolling, Goffin will be scrambling for his life. The real key is if Gulbis can control his oft-wayward forehand.
Gulbis is rested and ready to focus, and he’s been here before. In his mind, he probably thinks he is the favorite, because he's never shied away from brash presence.
We’re picking Gulbis to pull it off.
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Dominic Thiem Will Wage War with Novak Djokovic in the Semifinals
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Although February’s player of the month Dominic Thiem has five minor clay-court titles in the past year and some good wins over strong players, it wasn't a certainty the 22-year-old Austrian could advance deep at a major. He passed a couple of tests by defeating Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Alexander Zverev.
Now that the pressure of choking in the early rounds is off, Thiem can do some real damage.
There’s still the matter of defeating veteran Marcel Granollers (who is well-rested after being granted a walkover after Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal). Then there’s the semifinals and Djokovic.
Thiem and Djokovic waged war in Miami, where Thiem lost both sets after blowing 14 of 15 breakpoints against the world No. 1. At times he crushed a heavy ball at the Serb, forcing the action, but at other times he was a little hurried with his strokes and showed a lack of patience against the seasoned champion. It cost him.
Now he needs to bring his pounding groundstrokes with the kind of composure that defines champions. When does he hit through the court against perhaps the greatest player in history, and when does he keep grinding to wear him down?
It would be a thriller to see them go five sets with the French Open final on the line, and it could happen; Sports is about playing these matches and seeing the drama unfold one point at a time. Even if the Austrian loses, Thiem will be Djokovic’s fiercest test.
Madison Keys Will Get to the French Open Final
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Every win at the French Open is another giant step of experience for Madison Keys. She’s the most talented young big hitter, but learning to control her strokes on clay could get her on the fast track to fulfilling her major potential.
Keys is ready for a spectacular second week—all the way to the French Open final.
She will need to battle through a top-10-caliber player in either the legendary Venus Williams or Timea Bacsinszky, who is beginning her career peak.
Venus is more of a mirror match with her own power and athleticism, but Keys’ steadiness in getting to the Rome final and her youthful legs should pay dividends as mid-tournament roars into gear. Bacsinszky’s consistency is laudable, but Keys’ best is superior.
It doesn’t stop there if the younger (Serena) Williams sister marches into the semifinals. Keys would be the underdog, but her game and rising confidence is enough to challenge the great champion.
But look for Keys to keep ascending. She has a shot at the French Open title.
Andy Murray Will Be Tested All the Way to the Final
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Andy Murray will continue to be tested. Richard Gasquet might not be considered a dangerous player, but the experienced Frenchman is playing at home for their quarterfinal clash, and he’s only dropped one set in four matches, including impressive wins over Nick Kyrgios and Kei Nishikori.
Murray could get Albert Ramos-Vinolas or Stan Wawrinka in the semifinals, but considering the Scot’s perseverance on clay, he is primed to get to his first French Open final and challenge for the title.
What does he need to win it all?
Unless Dominic Thiem or David Goffin somehow overcome Novak Djokovic, it won’t be ideal for Murray to face his Serbian rival. Murray defeated Djokovic in the Rome final, and for all that Djokovic has gone through the past five years in trying to track down his most coveted title, he’s not going to give anything but his best performance against Murray.
How will Murray generate the kind of offense he will need to defeat Djokovic? There’s no question he must pick his spots coming into the baseline, but he’s going to need nearly perfect execution for three of five sets and hope that Djokovic will have an off day.
Right now, it’s difficult to see exactly how that match will go, if it happens. Perhaps one player will be more fatigued or find an X-factor burdening him down. But the most likely scenario does indeed see another chance for Murray to challenge Djokovic on the Grand Slam stage.
Simona Halep to Win the French Open Title?
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It’s not the easiest path for Simona Halep to finally win a major title, not with shot sorceress Agnieszka Radwanska and Spanish star Garbine Muguruza in her half of the draw. Sometimes, a player can finally get her breakthrough just when it seems the odds have been reduced, and Halep got a boost in winning at Madrid.
Halep will need to grind out a lot of games. She has excellent footwork and control, but being only 5’6” makes it difficult for her to swipe at some of the deep, high-bouncing balls. She has to look for smart openings to punch occasional winners, but if she’s locked in, her defensive retrieving will get her through the field.
How about a final against Madison Keys? There are a half-dozen stars who could win this title, and this is a pick with reservations, but I’m not entirely confident with any of the top players given the inconsistencies and surprises of 2016.
I would not take Halep against the field, but I think she has the best individual odds to win the title from here on out. There’s a solid chance for a photoshoot at the Eiffel Tower for the Romanian star.
King Novak Djokovic Will Finally Wear the French Open Crown
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There’s no reason to get cute with a “Bold Predictions” column. There’s a fair amount of watching players and trends, but there are always match surprises and unknown factors.
The remaining ATP players are all capable of being spoilers, and a few of them could legitimately win the French Open, even if it seems Novak Djokovic is more of a favorite than ever before.
But Djokovic is an even-stronger case to win the title as the second week begins:
- Rafael Nadal has been cleared out of the draw.
- Andy Murray could have the tougher, more draining road to the final.
- Djokovic is healthy and understands he cannot let down for a single point in his quest to complete the career Grand Slam and secure an even-greater place in history.
He’s at his peak, healthy and ready to finish the job. There are always questions about suddenly facing a hot opponent or dropping his form—these things do happen—but there’s no question he is the best player on the most important remaining mission of his career.
It’s time for King Novak to claim the French crown, and he will get it done.
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