2016 MLB Rookie of the Year Stock Watch, May Edition
Another year, another season of Major League Baseball having more talented rookies than it knows what to do with. And if nothing else, that makes for enticing Rookie of the Year races.
This year's Rookie of the Year contestants might not be quite as strong as a 2015 class that was among the best in recent memory, but it's no slouch. There are good competitions going for the American League and National League Rookie of the Year awards, and our aim is to break down how they're looking.
That involves weighing two things: total body of work and the way each player is trending. And in these rankings, the second thing matters just as much as the first.
We'll begin with a quick look at some rookies who are on the edges of the races, and then dive into the top five contenders for each league.
Keeping Tabs
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These guys aren't quite top-five Rookie of the Year contenders just yet, but they're worth keeping tabs on.
American League
- Tyler Naquin, OF, Cleveland Indians: His .317 average is nice, but he doesn't have much else and has cooled in May.
- Tony Barnette, RP, Texas Rangers: He has a 2.33 ERA in 19 appearances, but has done so without eye-catching strikeout numbers or a high ground-ball rate.
- Ryan Dull, RP, Oakland A's: He's struck out 26 in 24.2 innings, but has had some long-ball troubles in May.
National League
- Brandon Drury, OF/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks: There's plenty to like about his .840 OPS, but he's been a major liability on defense.
- Trayce Thompson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: NBA All-Star Klay Thompson's brother hasn't played great defense, but he is making a charge in May that's bumped his overall OPS up to .889.
- Seung Hwan Oh, RP, St. Louis Cardinals: The Final Boss has a 2.19 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 24.2 innings, admittedly leaving little to nitpick.
- Ryan Buchter, RP, San Diego Padres: His 11 walks are a bit much for 22.2 innings, but there's no complaining about his 32 strikeouts and 0.79 ERA.
AL No. 5: Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros
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For a time, whether anyone could get Tyler White out seemed like a fair question.
An afterthought going into spring training with the Houston Astros, White seized the club's first base gig by hitting .353 with a 1.031 OPS. He then kept right on hitting once the games started to count, racking up a .340 average and 1.124 OPS through his first 15 regular-season games.
Since then, however, White has been in a slump bad enough to make even Giancarlo Stanton cringe. The 25-year-old has hit only .158 with a .516 OPS since his hot start. According to his manager, such is life when the league adjusts to you.
"His mechanics, his body rhythms, his timing all seemed to take a hit as the league adjusted to him," Astros manager A.J. Hinch said recently, per Angel Verdejo Jr. of the Houston Chronicle.
The good news is White's slump hasn't completely undone the damage he did in his hot start. He has a .758 OPS that easily tops the AL average of .729. Between that and his body of work (40 games, 141 plate appearances), he still makes the grade as one of the AL's top rookies.
But the way he's trending, he shouldn't get too used to that label.
Stock: Down
AL No. 4: Dae-Ho Lee, 1B, Seattle Mariners
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He hasn't been getting the kind of attention that another rookie power hitter from Korea has gotten, but Dae-Ho Lee's bat has had plenty to say up in Seattle.
The 33-year-old veteran of the Korean Baseball Organization and Nippon Professional Baseball is slugging .531 with six home runs. And with an .825 OPS, he trails only Texas Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara among qualified American League rookies.
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise is that Lee, who the Mariners have mostly used in a platoon role against left-handed pitching, has actually hit right-handed pitching well. He's also played a solid first base, making zero errors and drawing above-average ratings from the defensive metrics.
Now, if only Lee could specialize in consistency too. He's hitting just .250 with a .294 on-base percentage, and he's only been making those numbers worse recently. Over his last 13 games, he's hit just .219 with a .242 OBP, striking out 10 times in 33 plate appearances.
According to Brooks Baseball, this correlates to Lee seeing more breaking balls. Now that pitchers have adjusted to him, it's on him to adjust back.
Stock: Down
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AL No. 3: Mychal Givens, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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The American League features some quality rookie relievers in 2016, but none of the others have cut down opposing batters like Mychal Givens has.
Givens teased his potential at the end of 2015, posting a 1.80 ERA and striking out 38 batters in 30 innings. That prompted Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs to whisper about Givens being the Baltimore Orioles' "secret weapon."
If the secret isn't out yet, it soon will be.
Givens' 1.83 ERA is the best among AL rookie relievers who've made at least 15 appearances. And though the right-hander has walked nine batters in 19.2 innings, he's also struck out 29. That wreckage comes from his combination of a funky sidearm delivery, a mid-90s fastball and a sharp slider.
"I believe I can throw it at any count," Givens said of his slider, according to Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com. "And that [slider] is a pitch…you better have some comfortability that you can throw any pitch in any count."
The fly in Givens' ointment is his platoon split against left-handed batters. That's not slowing him down, though. After a rocky start, he's allowed only one earned run in his last 15 appearances.
Stock: Up
AL No. 2: Byung Ho Park, DH, Minnesota Twins
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Lee is a good Korean success story, but he's no Byung Ho Park.
The power that led to 105 home runs over Park's last two seasons in the KBO has translated well to the majors. The 29-year-old has given the Minnesota Twins a .790 OPS and nine home runs, the most of any AL rookie.
Park's home runs have been easy on the eyes, too. According to ESPN Stats and Information, they've traveled an average of 421.1 feet. Only four players in the majors are averaging more distance on their dingers.
Like Lee for the Mariners, Park has also played a solid first base for the Twins when Joe Mauer has needed a breather. He hasn't yet booted a ball and is getting good ratings from the metrics.
Also like Lee, however, consistency has not been Park's strong suit. He swings and misses a lot, striking out in 32 percent of his plate appearances. He's only hitting .224 with a .305 OBP, and has been slumping with just two hits in his last 25 at-bats.
You know that one Bleacher Report dingbat who tabbed Park as the leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year last week? He wants you to know it seemed like a good idea at the time.
Stock: Down
AL No. 1: Nomar Mazara, RF, Texas Rangers
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Nomar Mazara let the AL Rookie of the Year race get neck and neck for a second there, but he's since found his second wind.
Mazara made a heck of a first impression, hitting .323 with an .861 OPS through his first 24 games after the Texas Rangers promoted him. After a brief slump, he once again has his rake out. The 21-year-old has spent his last seven games hitting .393 with four homers, the most recent of which was a 491-foot clout that came down with moon dust on it.
Not that anyone should be too surprised. Mazara hit everything in his path in 2014 and 2015, earning him looks as one of baseball's top prospects. And now, the Rangers see the same great hitter the numbers see.
"Nomar is a guy that we've seen that stays calm in the box, and when he gets a quality pitch to hit, he finds the barrel," Rangers manager Jeff Banister said, per Alden Gonzalez and Ryan Posner of MLB.com.
All told, Mazara owns a .320 average and .865 OPS that are both tops among AL rookies. Factor in his terrific defense in right field, and the AL Rookie of the Year race is firmly in his pocket.
Stock: Up
NL No. 5: Kenta Maeda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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There's a strong host of National League rookies clawing at the door of Kenta Maeda's spot on this list. But for now, they can't break through just yet.
Maeda's season looks good when viewed as a whole. The 28-year-old Japan native has put up a 3.29 ERA across 52 innings in nine starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers, striking out 48 and walking only 15.
He's also been tough to square up. According to Baseball Savant, Maeda began Wednesday with an average exit velocity of 85.4 miles per hour. That topped Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard and many others.
But times are changing. Maeda's red-hot start has given way to a cold stretch, as he's posted a 6.08 ERA over his last five starts.
"I haven't been able to execute my plan," the 28-year-old said recently, per Doug Padilla of ESPN.com. "During the good times I'm a little bit more careful. When with runners on base I've been able to get out of jams, but a lot of situations these days that hasn't been the case."
It's either that, or Maeda's subpar fastball velocity is catching up to him. As Brooks Baseball can show, hitters have been wearing out his fastballs in his last five starts.
Stock: Down
NL No. 4: Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies
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What Tyler White is to the AL Rookie of the Year race, Trevor Story is to the NL Rookie of the Year race.
What Story did at the opening of the 2016 season still looms large. Without his history-making stretch of seven home runs in his first six games, he would have neither his .272 average nor his .904 OPS. Among NL rookies with over 150 plate appearances, the latter is second only to St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz.
It's been a different, um, story for the Colorado Rockies shortstop since then. In 37 games, he's hit just .261 with an .805 OPS. Adjusted for Coors Field, wRC+ reveals he's been a slightly below-average hitter.
Still, it's too soon to quit on Story as a Rookie of the Year candidate. His overall numbers are still good, and he's been making a go at some necessary adjustments in May. He's bumped his strikeout rate down a tad, and he hasn't been as reliant on his pull side.
Story's offense could become less centered on his power if he's able to stick with these adjustments, which could allow him to get back on track. If not, well, he was literally and figuratively a fun story while he lasted.
Stock: Down
NL No. 3: Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Corey Seager entered 2016 as everyone's favorite prospect. With that kind of label comes expectations typically reserved for new Game of Thrones episodes.
Seager could be doing a much worse job of living up to those. The Dodgers' young shortstop is hitting a solid .263 with a .775 OPS and seven home runs, placing him among the NL's top rookie hitters.
This has much to do with how strong Seager has come on in May. He's hitting .278 with an .848 OPS this month, in which the 22-year-old has sharpened up his approach and made all sorts of loud contact.
It's not all good, though. Seager has run into a minislump with just two hits in his last 23 at-bats, highlighted by a 1-for-8 showing in the Dodgers' recent marathon game in San Diego.
Then there's the defense question. Seager's glove has never been as well-regarded as his bat, and the early returns this season are mixed. On the one hand, ultimate zone rating rates him as a strong defensive shortstop. On the other hand, he has six errors and is in the red in defensive runs saved.
So, though Seager is tracking better than Maeda and Story, he still has some ground to make up in the NL Rookie of the Year race.
Stock: Steady
NL No. 2: Aledmys Diaz, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
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For a longer-lasting version of Trevor Story's rookie breakout, see Aledmys Diaz.
Diaz's job at the beginning of the year was to simply hold down shortstop for the St. Louis Cardinals until Jhonny Peralta got healthy. But he's done so much more than that. He was hitting over .400 as recently as May 2, and is still hitting .331 with a .920 OPS. Both lead fellow NL rookies.
The big knock against Diaz has been that he's struggled defensively, but he's knocked back against that in May. He made a series of highlight-reel plays against the Los Angeles Angels earlier this month, and recently wowed everyone with a great catch this week.
"He was a little more tentative early," Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said of Diaz's defense, according to Nick Krueger of MLB.com, "and now you see him much more in control and aggressive."
But just as Diaz's defense may be turning around, his offense has hit the skids. He's hitting just .253 in May. There's a cause for this, as pitchers have begun to acknowledge Diaz's talent by pounding him low and away.
He's still a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, but maybe not for much longer if he doesn't adjust.
Stock: Down
NL No. 1: Steven Matz, SP, New York Mets
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The elbow scare Steven Matz dealt with earlier this month turned out to be nothing. He's celebrating accordingly.
Following eight innings of shutout ball against the Washington Nationals Wednesday afternoon, the New York Mets' young southpaw now has a 2.36 ERA in eight starts. Never mind just fellow NL rookies; that ERA places Matz among the NL's top 10 starters, period.
And at this point, there seems to be no stopping Matz. After opening the season with a dud in which he surrendered seven earned runs in 1.2 innings, he's allowed just six earned runs in 48 innings since. That's a 1.13 ERA, and it comes with a 49-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
"He's got great confidence," Mets skipper Terry Collins said after Matz silenced the Milwaukee Brewers last Friday, per Dan Martin of the New York Post. "This guy's got a chance to be as good as anybody because of his stuff, his command and his confidence. If his health stays good, he's gonna win a lot of games."
In light of Matz's recent elbow scare and his trouble with injuries in the past, continued good health is not something to take for granted. But if his health does hold, there could be a shiny award in his future.
Stock: Up
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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