French Open 2016: 10 Bold Predictions at Roland Garros
The French Open used to be the most predictable major in the past decade, at least when it came to confidently picking Rafael Nadal to win the championship and Novak Djokovic to go through more agony.
But times are changing, perhaps no more symbolic than Swiss legend Roger Federer's absence at a major for the first time since 1999. The game of tennis has become more powerful year by year, producing a big-hitting champion like 2015 French Open winner Stan Wawrinka who replaced Nadal’s big topspin forehand. It’s no longer defined by retrievers and backboards.
All of which demands more from the ATP and WTA players who will survive and advance at Week 1 of the French Open. Both men’s and women’s fields are deep with plenty of surprises awaiting the favorites.
Our “Bold Predictions” column this week will focus on the top stars for Week 1, project pools of players who could be facing upsets and set up the second-week outlook for French Open madness. We will start with a few slides on the WTA and transition to possibilities in the ATP.
Sit back, grab a chocolate croissant and prepare for baseline bashing on Roland Garros’ famed red clay. No matter what happens, it should be very entertaining.
Serena Williams Will Not Win the French Open
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We’re starting right from the top at the WTA. Serena Williams will not win the French Open.
The top-ranked superstar sits on 21 majors, but clay is her most difficult surface. It blunts some of her serving and power advantage while causing her to slide and move on defense a lot more than on American hard courts. The draw is filled with plenty of capable Europeans who will make her work hard over the two weeks, even if they only serve to wear her down a bit in Week 1.
Serena has at least wiped away some of the worries about her lack of consistent playing time since September’s U.S. Open. She conquered the field to win the Italian Open, showing that when she is in the groove, she is still the top player to beat, even on clay.
But consistency is more of a problem as she ages, at least in her powers of recovering from one match to the next, or staying strong on every single point at critical stages. Some of this was apparent in her loss to Angelique Kerber in the Ausrtalian Open final.
The great Serena is more likely to tie the legendary Steffi Graf with major No. 22 at Wimbledon than the French Open. The first week should go well, but her draw toughens up considerably by week two. More on that in next week’s column if Serena is still in Paris.
Simona Halep and Lucie Safarova on Collision Course for 4th Round
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A lot of tennis observers have suddenly jumped back on Simona Halep’s bandwagon after the Romanian star won Madrid. Halep, the 2014 French Open runner-up, is built more as a traditional French Open champion with her abilities to retrieve and hit with accuracy from the baseline.
Halep has a nice draw for the first three rounds and should get by despite her history of playing three-setters against inferior competition.
Then it could be a war. Unlike Halep, few might remember that Lucie Safarova was the 2015 French Open runner-up. She’s not playing with the same intensity and success as a year ago, but she has the ideal footwork and mentality to grind away with her heavy lefty topspin. She’s a veteran who has come of age with her toughness and game.
Next week prepare for a fourth-round war between Halep and Safarova.
Five WTA Top-10 Seeds Will Fall in the First Week
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Get ready for more inexplicable star upsets in the women’s draw. It’s been the dominant theme for 2016. Top stars have been fatigued, riddled with nagging injuries and have often taken several weeks or more away from tournaments. The top stars have rarely looked like they are in peak performance, biding their time and hoping to get in shape for the all-important French Open.
We will go out on a limb and predict that five of the 10 seeds will be out before the second week. None of them are a lock, but the following top-10 players are the most likely candidates to lose early:
- No. 7 Roberta Vinci really does not have a clay-court game. She’s savvy and able to slice, scatter shots and attack the net, but she’s going to find it difficult against mid-level players this week.
- No. 8 Timea Bacsinsky has played her best tennis, but her top-10 ranking will be on the line by Round 2 against either Eugenie Bouchard or Laura Siegemund. It will be a battle to stay alive.
- No. 9 Venus Williams has an easy draw for a few rounds, but her results have been sporadic with her health and aging the last several years.
- No. 5 Victoria Azarenka has a nice first-week draw, but she has historically struggled on clay and has not been playing well since her sizzling terror in March. Throw in her sore back that caused struggles in Madrid and Rome and it’s hard to see her making a deep run after so much optimism following Miami.
- No. 3 Angelique Kerber has tried to take on her role as a top favorite since winning the 2016 Australian Open, but it hasn’t been easy. Will the pressure undo her in the first few rounds?
Maybe a couple of the players listed above will hang in for a deep run in Week 2, but other top players like Serena Williams or Agnieszka Radwanska could tumble as well. Five players is what we have marked.
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French Open Distractions Will Be Significant
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There are always distractions at majors, and the first day of play was largely undone by the rain. The effects could show for a few days with players cramming in two matches in a short time, perhaps leading to some tough breaks for favorite players. Hopefully, weather will not be a memorable cause of the final the way it was in 2012 in the men’s final when Rafael Nadal finished off Novak Djokovic in two days.
Often other distractions can mar the good feelings of watching and playing tennis. Will the Maria Sharapova story about meldonium and her timeline to return continue to gain press and discussion?
Maybe Rafael Nadal will get more coverage for suing Roselyne Bachelot, former French minister of health and sports, because he is tired of accusations that he was doping to enhance his tennis performances. Will the story undermine some of the fan support he might get in Paris?
Then there is the never-ending UK press on Andy Murray as he looks to go after the French Open title. He’s used to being in the fishbowl, but there’s only so much one athlete can take, especially if he has any kind of struggle or flare up on court.
Will Novak Djokovic break through the pressure? How many times will the media print articles about his quest to finally win this title and complete the career Grand Slam? He has to hear some of it, and even so the tension at Roland Garros will be palpable and thick for the world No. 1.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez Will Shock Dominic Thiem in the Second Round
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Fresh off a level-250 title at Nice, Dominic Thiem should be at least one of the outside favorites to win the French Open. The 22-year-old Austrian has become a tough clay-court player with five titles in one year on the red stuff (plus one hard-court title in Mexico), and he defeated Rafael Nadal (Argentina) and Roger Federer (Rome) along the way.
But he's thus far been unable to go deep in the Masters 1000 and major venues. Whether it's the tougher competition or the pressures to capitalize on break points, Thiem has not looked quite the same when the stakes are highest. He’s more prone to errors with his eagerness to power through opponents.
Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is the definition of a troubling opponent on clay. He’s experienced at bothering and beating favored opponents, such as his 1st-round win in the 2014 French Open over Stan Wawrinka. He’s a veteran used to these matches and the pressure for him could be negligible.
Thiem will need to be on his game to advance deep into the second week, but there’s a good chance he won’t get out of the second round.
Fading Top-10 Veterans Will Fall
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We say farewell to three perennial top-10 players who have been fading in 2016. They will continue their late-career declines at Roland Garros, and none of them will survive into the second week.
David Ferrer has finally looked his age in 2016. The 34-year-old is no longer in the top 10, and his 18-10 record includes zero titles and losses to Marin Cilic, Lucas Pouille (twice), Tomas Berdych and Dominic Thiem. He’s no longer dominating mid-major events, and he’s not even getting matches against the very top players. He will go down by the third round.
Speaking of Berdych, the Czech used to be a lock for the second week of majors, but now he’s getting blown out by the top players, and David Goffin served him a double bagel at Rome. He could very possibly lose to Vasek Pospisil in the first round, but let’s call our shot by backing Pablo Cuevas in the third round. Tough times for “Big Bird” who split with coach Daniel Vallverdu last week. (Would Vallverdu consider reuniting with Andy Murray?)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga usually performs well behind French support, and he was a semifinalist at Roland Garros last year. Except he has not played well in recent weeks, and he withdrew from Rome with a thigh injury. Despite an easy draw ahead, there are more questions than answers about his form, health and potential to go deep for a second year in a row at Roland Garros.
These three players could all be sliding down in 2016, and it’s very likely they will not qualify in November to play the ATP World Tour Finals reserved for the top eight players.
Pablo Cuevas Will Get to the Quarterfinals
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Pablo Cuevas will make a run all the way to the quarterfinals.
Who?
Clay-court fans are aware of the 30-year-old from Uruguay who has quietly been a top-30 player in the past year. In February, he defeated Rafael Nadal on his way to the title at Rio de Janeiro. A week later, he capped off a second title at Sao Paulo. Call Cuevas the king of Brazil.
He was tough at Madrid, defeating Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gael Monfils before falling in a tight match against Nick Kyrgios.
His French Open draw sets up nicely for him to win his first four matches if he can continue to play feisty, physical tennis and get through possible opponents Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer in the 3rd and 4th rounds.
It’s still against the odds, but Cuevas has the experience, clay-court comfort and chance to get through opponents who have hardly played their best tennis in 2016. But the quarterfinals will probably have to do. Novak Djokovic will probably be waiting and ready.
Big Hitters Will Fall in the First Week
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Time might be short for a few contending big hitters this first week. That means a yellow caution sign for Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic and Nick Kyrgios. It’s nice to have power, but relying heavily on a big serve or powerful groundstrokes is not enough. There are plenty of fit players who will retrieve and put pressure on their defense.
Wawrinka has an easy first three matches on paper, but that doesn’t mean he won’t sputter against Lukas Rosol, Martin Klizan, Leonardo Mayer or Jeremy Chardy. He could go down.
The enigmatic Marin Cilic has been on cruise control for so long, it's hard to remember he should be a contender.
There’s more danger for Milos Raonic in the third round if he faces rising clay-court specialist Lucas Pouille who has fared well since Monte Carlo with wins over Richard Gasquet, David Goffin and David Ferrer. He got to the final at Bucharest and the semifinals at Rome. He’s 12-4 during this stretch and might be the favorite over the more cumbersome and injury-plagued Raonic.
Nick Kyrgios has been more consistent in the past few months, but he’s still shaky at times. He needed two tiebreakers to survive his first-round match, and an upcoming match against Steve Johnson or Fernando Verdasco could also be close. Surviving that, he will be an underdog against the steadier Kei Nishikori who defeated Kyrgios at Miami and Madrid.
Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray Will Not Drop a Set
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The first week of a major is less about a star putting himself in position to win the title. It's more about not losing to an inspired underdog or surviving a close match. The very top superstars hope to blitz through their opening matches as fast as possible in order to conserve energy and strength for the second week.
Novak Djokovic should have a cake walk into the second week against the likes of Yen Hsun Lu a qualifier in the first round, Marsel Ilhan or veteran Steve Darcis in the second round and then a potential third-rounder against Federico Delbonis. The world No. 1 shouldn't drop a set, and it's a good bet he wins over two-thirds the games played.
Andy Murray has too much baseline game for Radek Stepanek who is much better on faster courts. Then a nondescript Frenchman or Spaniard in the second round and possibly a third-rounder against big server Ivo Karlovic. Perhaps he survives a tiebreaker in that one, but otherwise Murray shouldn't be tested. He will not drop a set.
Djokovic and Murray fresh off celebrating their 28th birthdays, should be charged ready for the second week. Then the tournament truly begins for them.
Rafael Nadal Will Have a Scare in the First Week
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Rafael Nadal has looked more like his 2014 self with titles at Monte Carlo and Barcelona and more competitive play in a Rome loss to Novak Djokovic. On the other hand, the Spanish superstar’s best play cannot overshadow that he is more inconsistent late in his career in the so-called easy matches.
For example, Nadal cruised to a 6-0 first-set shellacking of Joao Sousa in Madrid’s quarterfinals, but then he had to fight hard for a three-set win. It left him more fatigued and perhaps less confident in losing to Murray in the semifinals. Nadal doesn’t steamroll the easy matches the way he once did, and that can cost him energy that he needs for a final weekend at the French Open.
This week, Nadal will have to survive a scare, maybe a tough five-set match or perhaps a four-hour affair in the third round against familiar foe Fabio Fognini. There will be a match he doesn't play well, that leaves fans scratching their head and nervously anticipating his chances for the later rounds.
A match like this could undermine Nadal’s chances in the second week, or he could bounce back with a quick win and eventually come into the semifinals to face Djokovic with all the bullets in his chamber.
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