Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players Heading into 2016 French Open Tennis
The 2016 French Open is finally here in all its red-clay glory, where gritty challengers flock to Paris to track down high-hopping tennis balls.
They slide into shots with brick-stained socks while whipping massive topspin beyond the baseline and into the green and white advertisements that surround the perimeter of France’s greatest battlefield, Court Philippe Chatrier.
Each of the 128 players dreams of playing in this venue for a final on the second Sunday, but only a few will truly contend for this honor. Who has the greatest chance to win the championship?
Our top-10 countdown considers two primary factors:
- What are his clay-court abilities and skills? Does he have the footwork, rallying endurance and mental strength to win several matches in Paris.
- How has he performed lately? Some players have dropped off in 2016 while others are emerging. What kind of momentum was gained or lost at important clay-court tournaments Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome?
These indicators are merely a guess as to how each player is set up, pending the French Open draw. Then more clarity will illumine his path in the French Open drama.
Missing the Cut
1 of 11
For the first time since the 20th century, Roger Federer will not play in a major. The Swiss legend has been banged up with injuries since the Australian Open, and he will now try to find his form for Wimbledon. It's the biggest blow of the tournament, and the French Open has not yet begun.
And an even later withdrawal from Gael Monfils, who had made a memorable dash to the Monte Carlo final. Too bad.
Sorry, Tomas Berdych, but it was a clay-court season to forget. Despite his No. 8 ranking, he’s been fading like an old signpost, one that might have a couple zeroes representing the 6-0, 6-0 double bagel served by David Goffin at Rome. There’s little optimism that he will make a run at Roland Garros.
Even a big server like Milos Raonic cannot win seven straight best-of-five matches on clay without supplemental support. Plus his health is a concern. Lately, when he makes it to the quarterfinals or semifinals of a big tournament, injuries pop in.
Why is David Ferrer playing at Geneva this week? Shouldn’t he be resting up his aging body? The 34-year-old is always shown up to play at level-250 pigeons, but at some point he just can’t hold up and expect to have the energy to play a strong major like the French Open.
10. Richard Gasquet
2 of 11
France just lost Gael Monfils, but veteran Richard Gasquet could be due to sneak up for French Open glory, like a quarterfinal or semifinal appearance depending upon the draw.
The Frenchman with the distinguished game, almost too gentlemanly to wreak havoc with big groundstrokes, has nevertheless been capable at various times in his career, most notably his run to the Wimbledon semifinals last year.
At the least, the 29-year-old is an enjoyable player with throwback strokes and intelligence if not the killer instinct. He could fall in the first week, but chances are stronger that he rolls forward with a blend of off-pace groundstrokes and his quiet but visible determination.
9. Nick Kyrgios
3 of 11
There are still more doubts than certainties about controversial Nick Kyrgios, but the young Aussie has been playing steadier tennis since winning his first ATP title at Marseille in February. He was a semifinalist at Miami, quarterfinalist at Madrid and fought to a three-set loss against Rafael Nadal in Rome.
It’s just a matter of time before he breaks out in a major, and although Wimbledon grass is more likely than French Open clay, the 21-year-old has proved he can win against superstars on the big stage. There’s a level of confidence or arrogance about his game and mindset, fully capable and oozing over with belief.
The real issue is between his ears. Can Kyrgios stay calm and collected when adversity strikes? He’s able to defeat powerful players like Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic, but he needs to prove he can grind with patience. He’s emotional, which is an asset that drives him to play hard, but he’s as likely to be combustible.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
8. David Goffin
4 of 11
After sizzling in the southern United States with semifinal showings at Indian Wells and Miami, world No. 13 David Goffin cooled down a bit in the clay-court tournaments leading up to the French Open.
He looked better in getting to the quarterfinals in Rome, but there’s still quite a gap to get in range of Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic.
The Belgian is an underrated player, somewhat because he lacks the size and power of a Nick Kyrgios or Stan Wawrinka. However, his backhand is exceptional and his footwork able to position himself against bigger hitters. He’s a good strategist who uses both corners to set up the right kinds of risks when the court opens up.
There’s a lot to enjoy about his complete game, even if he is a long shot for penetrating the semifinals or better. The man competes.
7. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
5 of 11
Last year, Jo-Wilfried crashed the semifinals at Roland Garros for the second time in three years, but he was ultimately put away by eventual champion Stan Wawrinka.
The Frenchman is a powerful big man, but he moves well on clay and feeds off partisan support.
Tsonga’s results the past couple months have been moderate. He defeated a shell of Roger Federer to reach the Monte Carlo semifinals, but he fizzled in a straight-sets loss to Milos Raonic at Madrid before withdrawing from Rome because of a thigh injury.
What Tsonga needs is the kind of serving and power that drove him to win the 2014 Rogers Cup. It’s a lot different on clay where his backhand needs greater steadiness and his game more patience, but if he’s truly healthy he could be a contending force deep into the second week.
6. Dominic Thiem
6 of 11
Tennis fans are on to Dominic Thiem, and the last few months has seen him grow into a tough-minded player. But he also has a lot to prove after solid but unspectacular results against stronger contenders at Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome.
His biggest win was against an ailing Roger Federer at Rome, but he lost a title match in Munich against Philipp Kohlschreiber, and he was underwhelming given the opportunity to make a statement as a French Open contender.
Thiem is still a threat but there are questions about him converting break points against the likes of Nadal and Djokovic. He hits big, but will he control the court against defensive greats who are listed in the top four spots in our ranking?
The solution for the 22-year-old will be persistent aggression at the right times. It’s one thing to move his opponents around with some of those killer strokes, but finishing off the superstars on a big stage has not happened enough to pick him as a bona fide contender. Not yet, anyway.
5. Stan Wawrinka
7 of 11
It’s hard to completely write off defending champion Stan Wawrinka, but he’s played lackluster tennis at the biggest clay-court venues in 2016, winning only three of six matches before playing a level-250 tournament at Geneva while most of the rest of the ATP was filing into Paris.
It didn’t help that he got crushed by Rafael Nadal at Monte Carlo and lost two tiebreakers to Nick Kyrgios at Madrid.
Can big-match Stan get it together for an encore march to a major title? After all, he is the only player in this draw besides Rafael Nadal who owns a French Open title. He’s shown that he is capable, if he can keep his head, keep fighting and keep the ball in the court.
This is the man who blew world No. 1 Novak Djokovic off the court last year.
But he’s not playing like a champion right now, and we’re going to stick with our prediction: Wawrinka will not win the French Open even if he survives to make things interesting into the second week.
4. Kei Nishikori
8 of 11
Three straight springs has produced strong clay-court results for Kei Nishikori.
He was bidding for three consecutive Barcelona titles until Rafael Nadal reclaimed his crown last month. Then he impressed with back-to-back Masters 1000 semifinals at Madrid and Rome, losing both times to Novak Djokovic. He nearly pulled through in Rome, but he faltered after a slim lead in the third-set tiebreaker.
But is the Japanese star ready to win a major title?
Nishikori was the 2014 runner-up, but despite his early ball-striking and sharp angles, he has to be at his absolute best to challenge the top superstars for the duration of a big match. It won’t be easy for him to win two or more superstar matches in a best-of-five format. Does he have the stamina and endurance to last?
On the other hand, he’s playing a lot better than Stan Wawrinka, he defeated Nick Kyrgios at Madrid and he halted Dominic Thiem at Rome. If the stars ahead of him flop, he might be able to slip in for a title chance.
3. Andy Murray
9 of 11
It’s not like Andy Murray has been sneaking up on anybody after a decade of sustained excellence, two majors and many other big titles in his hall-of-fame career. It’s just that he’s got a better opportunity in 2016 to win the French Open than ever before.
- He has won three clay-court titles in just over a year, including 2015 Madrid over Rafael Nadal and 2016 Rome over Novak Djokovic. That’s competence and confidence for the Scot.
- His tactics on clay are more sensible with his willingness to pick more opportunities for offensive clout, while still relying on his consistent strokes and defensive foundation.
- This is one of the few places that Novak Djokovic has not locked up. If Murray gets the Serb in the final maybe some of the doubts creep into his rival’s head if tension builds late in the match.
If he does win the French Open, Murray might be looking for his career Grand Slam at Melbourne 2017. Let’s just hold on and see how things go at Roland Garros.
2. Rafael Nadal
10 of 11
Is this Rafael Nadal’s last legitimate chance at a major? Despite his struggles with aging and injuries the past couple of years, the king of clay has edged closer to his former self, at least more like the Nadal that won the French Open in 2014.
The 29-year-old won titles at Monte Carlo and Barcelona, proving that he could beat the best in the world, at least if he didn’t cross paths with world No. 1 and nemesis Novak Djokovic.
He followed this up with good efforts at Madrid (semifinal loss to Andy Murray) and Rome (tight quarterfinal loss to Djokovic).
Nadal also won a small benefit in gaining the No. 4 seed for the French Open following Roger Federer’s withdrawal. He does not have to match up with Djokovic in the quarterfinals this time.
Most important, does he have enough of the old magic to play like his former self? He will need this and more to overcome a deep top 10, and he might need some help otherwise, such as a big upset or two to lighten his path to the final, or a very big off-day from his rivals in the second weekend.
Then again, Nadal still needs to get through that first week. Nothing comes easy these days, but that understanding seems to drive the Spaniard more. He’s going to give it his best down to the final point.
1. Novak Djokovic
11 of 11
This is everything for Novak Djokovic. While 11 major trophies sit on his shelf, none of them are the coveted Musketeers' Cup from France. He’s paid his dues in losing out to Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka. He’s the best player in the world by far. Now is the time.
Despite his brilliance and complete skills, the Serb will have moments when he is challenged. He’s almost always responded by staying the course with his air-tight defensive game and returns, selective offensive pressure and the steadiness to rise above the pressure when his opponents reach for too much.
Last year this was not enough as a hot Wawrinka powered through Djokovic’s side of the court with bludgeoning groundstrokes. Could someone else do something similar?
It won’t happen the same way. Maybe a big server has his day and everything else falls into place. Perhaps a softer, consistent player forces Djokovic to hit his way through five uncomfortable sets, like the display from Gilles Simon at the Australian Open.
But shouldn’t we be talking about Djokovic’s overwhelming advantages, ultimate motivation and absolute desire to finally win seven straight matches at Roland Garros? It’s now or never, at least in 2016.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
