What Roger Federer's Loss to Milos Raonic Means for US Open 2016

Roger Federer is a 17-time Grand Slam winner and one of the best tennis players in the history of the sport, but the 34-year-old's loss to Milos Raonic at Wimbledon on Friday is another sign his brilliant prime is likely behind him. 

The sixth-seeded Canadian won the final two sets to earn a 6-3, 6-7 (3), 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 win. Raonic is headed to his first Grand Slam final, where he will take on either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych. 

Federer is still without a championship during the 2016 season, and it is fair to wonder if age and health have finally caught up to the legend.

Aging in professional sports is concerning enough, but injuries have also hindered Federer’s ability to compete at the elite level fans have grown accustomed to seeing from him.

He withdrew from the French Open, and Charlotte Wilder of USA Today’s For the Win noted it was the first time he sat out a Grand Slam since 1999.

Wilder also wrote that Federer “didn’t specify what injury it was that made him decide not to play at Roland Garros, saying instead that he just wasn’t physically at 100 percent. He also said that he felt as though participating would pose an ‘unnecessary risk’ for the rest of his season.”

What’s more, Federer’s back forced him to pull out of the Madrid Open, and the Press Association (h/t the Daily Mail) provided a list of his physical setbacks this year. Federer required surgery in February for a knee injury that sidelined him for about two months, and he became ill right before he was about to come back for the Miami Open. 

He finally returned at the Monte Carlo Masters but lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals. 

While Federer has been a shell of himself this year, he does have a tendency to play at his best on the U.S. Open stage. He reached the final last year (where he lost to Novak Djokovic) and has five titles and a sparkling 78-11 record at the tournament, per his ATP World Tour profile.

Federer boasts a sterling track record of excellence at the event, and he understands how to win and handle the pressure.

However, his recent play in 2016 doesn’t suggest he will find that magic this year. In addition to the loss to Tsonga, he fell to Dominic Thiem in the Italian Open and Mercedes Cup.

Thiem is 22 years old, and the age and athleticism differential between the two opponents was clear at this point of Federer’s career. His injuries have sapped much of his overall physical ability in 2016, which means he will likely have to rely on his veteran guile and tendency to rise to the moment at Grand Slam events to compete at the U.S. Open.

Federer did reach the semifinals of the Australian Open in January and Friday's semifinal using those tactics, but he lost to younger players in both instances. Raonic is 25 and coming into his prime, and Djokovic breezed his way to another Aussie title. 

The Serb’s overall dominance may be the largest obstacle facing Federer and the rest of the field vying for a crown at the upcoming major.

He is the top-ranked player in the world and nearly impossible to beat when he is playing at his best. He is also the defending U.S. Open champion and, much like Federer, knows what it takes to win on this stage.

Djokovic holds a narrow 23-22 lead in head-to-head matchups from a historical standpoint against Federer, but he is 6-2 in their last eight showdowns. The 29-year-old is in the middle of his prime and has surpassed Federer at this point of their careers.

Djokovic will also be motivated given his early exit at the All-England Club. 

Between the age, injuries and Djokovic roadblock, it is difficult to envision Federer parlaying this latest loss into triumph at the U.S. Open.