What Rafael Nadal's Wrist Injury Means for Wimbledon 2016

Rafael Nadal exited the 2016 French Open earlier than expected, withdrawing prior to his third-round match against Marcel Granollers due to a wrist injury.  

Nadal announced his injury in a short post on his official Facebook page:

Christopher Clarey of the New York Times reported Nadal's injury is an inflamed tendon sheath in his left wrist, but there is no tear. 

The 29-year-old hasn't advanced past the quarterfinal of a Grand Slam tournament since winning the 2014 French Open. Even when he was dealing with health issues in 2012 and 2013, Nadal was still capable of turning it on at Roland Garros, having won the French Open in both years. Now, he can no longer count on that luxury. 

Sports Illustrated's Jon Wertheim explained some of the factors that have pointed to Nadal's steady downturn:

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In the case of Nadal, his declining confidence is apparent in all kinds of ways. You see earmarks (especially on clay, where those marks serve as forensic evidence) that his shots are not penetrating the court, that his positioning is passive. You see it on the stat sheet, too.

Reader Rohit Sudarshan noted: "It was a tough South American trip for Rafa Nadal. The problem is twofold; he's showing vulnerability to lower ranked players, and he's struggling to win decisive points/deciding sets. From 2013 to 2014, 21% of his matches went to deciding sets but he won 83% of those matches. Since the start of 2015, 30% of his matches end in deciding sets, but he's winning just 57% of those matches."

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Unless Nadal radically changes his playing style, the end will come much more swiftly for him than it has for Roger Federer. So much of Nadal's game is predicated on his insane physical conditioning. The older he gets, the harder it will be to maintain that level of conditioning.

Injuries have plagued Nadal over the previous two years. His 2014 season was interrupted due to problems with his right wrist, which forced him to withdraw from the U.S. Open, as well as a bout with appendicitis and back issues. 

Those problems lingered into 2015. Nadal posted a 58-19 record and three singles titles, which tied 2011 for his fewest in a single season during his run of prominence dating back to 2005. 

It's too early to say Nadal will never win another major tournament; his window is obviously closing but hasn't shut completely. He only needs to hit a groove over seven matches to add a 15th Grand Slam title. Not to mention he remains strong against the sport's best stars not named Novak Djokovic.

Here's Nadal's head-to-head record in his last five meetings against the top 10 in the ATP rankings:

Ranking	Player	Record (Last 5)
1	Novak Djokovic	0-5
2	Andy Murray	3-2
3	Roger Federer	4-1
4	Stan Wawrinka	3-2
6	Kei Nishikori	4-1
7	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	3-2
8	Tomas Berdych	4-1
9	Milos Raonic	4-1
10	Richard Gasquet	5-0

Given his recent history at the All England Club, expecting Nadal to turn his Grand Slam fortunes around at Wimbledon in June and July might be a bit too optimistic. Over the last four years, Nadal hasn't advanced past the fourth round of the tournament, and three of those years ended in the first or second round.

The problem extends beyond Wimbledon. Between 2012 and 2015, Nadal went a combined 10-7 in main draw events on grass, per Matchstat.

"He struggles to figure out how to get into the right positioning on the return on grass, and he's not getting free points on his serve," said Tennis Channel analyst and former pro Justin Gimelstob in July 2015, per USA Today's Nick McCarvel. "He's vulnerable against attacking players on the grass."

In 2013, six-time Grand Slam winner Boris Becker argued Nadal's history of knee injuries leaves him susceptible on the surface, per BBC Sport's David Ornstein:

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If you have a knee problem, grass is the worst surface. Hard courts are not as bad because you have a firm position, you can put your foot down and stand up to hit the ball - the bounce is higher so you don't have to bend as low. I wouldn't worry about Nadal playing on hard courts or indoors, but I always thought grass was an issue.

In terms of his whole career, he has answered the questions. He won the French Open and, in my opinion, is the player of the year so far. He is surrounded by great people and I'm not going to suggest anything to him but, from an outside point of view, he definitely has to reconsider his future on grass.

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It's also unclear at this point if Nadal will even be physically ready for Wimbledon. He said during his press conference announcing his wrist injury that he "will work hard to be fit for Wimbledon. I need a couple of weeks. At the moment it's day by day," per journalist Alison Mitchell.  

When Nadal withdrew from the U.S. Open in 2014, he originally injured his wrist on July 29. The turnaround isn't as swift this time around, since Wimbledon starts exactly one month from now on June 27. 

Nadal could have gone on to win the French Open this year, but it will instead have to be one of those unknown questions. Plus, it wouldn't remedy the problems he's had on the surface at the All England Club. 

Based on Rafa's physical condition, as well as his recent performances in Grand Slam events—he bowed out in the first round at this year's Australian Open—a potential win at Wimbledon would have to be considered a significant long shot right now.