Early Favorites for Top Pick in 2017 NFL Draft
The 2017 NFL draft is 11 months away, but it’s not too early to start digging in on top prospects. The early favorites to be first-rounders or even go No. 1 overall will be under intense microscopes as evaluators want to make sure their franchises will benefit from their additions.
We’ve identified eight of the most talented draft-eligible players in the country who could all end up being the top pick in next year’s draft.
Since the top pick is usually a quarterback, pass-rusher or offensive tackle, those are the positions that dominate the theme of this list. Just three out of eight individuals function in other roles, but they’re so good at their respective jobs that they had to be mentioned. All it takes is for the right team to finish the 2016 season with the worst record to open the door for a cornerback or running back to go first.
Which players do you think will solidify their draft stocks with a great 2016 season? And who will emerge as late bloomers for the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NFL draft? Make sure to leave your predictions and thoughts in the comments section below.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
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The early favorite to hear his name called first overall in the 2017 NFL draft is Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. The explosive and dynamic passer is also atop the Heisman Trophy discussion after he showed dominant flashes in 2015. At 6’2” and 210 pounds, Watson fits the current state of football with his dual-threat abilities.
The momentum is high for Watson off his incredible 478-yard performance against Alabama in the national championship game. He’s dynamic with his legs, but it’s his arm talent that will endear him to evaluators. Much like 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff, Watson can thread the needle with excellent accuracy, anticipation and timing to all levels of the field.
Now a true junior, Watson will be expected to improve his week-to-week consistency. It won’t be easy since the Tigers are expected to be title favorites—every opponent will bring its best effort. He can’t afford to replicate games like his 11-of-22, 97-yard effort against Notre Dame last year.
Watson is highly intelligent and projects as an above-average quarterback in the NFL if he reaches his potential. He’s the only quarterback in the country who looks like an early first-round prospect at this time, although there are others who could put their names in the hat with a massive leap in performance. The quarterback-thirsty teams at the top of the draft won’t be able to pass on Watson if he can continue to show the dominance he displayed at the end of 2015.
Myles Garrett, Edge, Texas A&M
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As likely as a quarterback is to go No. 1 overall, there’s a chance the team with the worst record will have an established quarterback in place or will have recently invested highly at the position. Whether due to injuries or a team lacking other talent, the odds of a non-quarterback going first is decent. In that event, Texas A&M edge-rusher Myles Garrett looks like the early favorite to hear his name called first.
Garrett has been a deadly pass-rusher since his true-freshman season with the Aggies. He’s already accumulated 22.5 sacks in two seasons, showing great power, speed and bend at the position. The 6’5”, 262-pounder has the ideal frame projecting to the next level as either a 3-4 linebacker or 4-3 defensive end.
His disruptiveness hasn’t just resulted in sacks. What gives Garrett the nudge over his competition is his ability to play the run. While he’s not a great edge-setter in the run game, he’s dangerous enough to bring down ball-carriers in the backfield. His 32 tackles for loss in addition to the sacks help illustrate his sky-high potential.
There are areas for improvement with Garrett, just like with every other player. His repertoire of countermoves is weak, and he’s prone to over-relying on his immense physical tools to win as a pass-rusher. Honing his technique and hand placement could elevate him to one of the rare elite pass-rushing prospects of the last decade.
Carl Lawson, Edge, Auburn
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It may seem strange to see a player with just five career sacks in 18 games as a possible No. 1 overall pick, but Auburn edge Carl Lawson is too talented to overlook. Turn on any Auburn game where Lawson played, and he quickly stands out with his incredible burst off the line and violent hands. He arguably has a higher upside than Garrett because of those two traits.
Injuries have limited the 6’2”, 257-pound defensive end in his time at Auburn, including a torn ACL in 2014 and cracked hip in 2015. Those could become issues in medical checks at the NFL Scouting Combine. But if he can put together a full campaign in 2016, Lawson will be highly rated based on his natural talent and ability to impact a defense.
Premium pass-rushers are the second-most valuable commodities in the NFL. Lawson demonstrates what the NFL’s best sack artists routinely do, which is use speed and flexibility to bend the edge and force pressure on quarterbacks. He’s more in that traditional build than Garrett with his frame and skill set.
NFL teams prefer traits to production in most instances because athleticism has been proved smart to bank on. Like Ziggy Ansah in 2013, Lawson could climb the board thanks to his physical gifts and flashes on film. Hopefully he’ll piece together a complete season of film and production to justify the excitement.
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Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
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The most explosive and well-rounded running back who could be in the 2017 NFL draft is Florida State’s Dalvin Cook. The 5’11”, 206-pounder has the rare combination of elite speed, short-area burst, elusiveness and vision. He’s my top prospect at the position despite it being a loaded class.
Cook has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in his first two seasons with the Seminoles and figures to again be the workhorse for this offense. His 1,691 rushing yards and 244 receiving yards in 2015 were filled with big plays that Cook created with little space and room to work with. He’s capable of changing the game no matter how many times he touches the ball.
Since he’s not reliant on his sheer power or wearing down defenses, Cook gets the nod over more physical backs as a potential No. 1 pick. He rarely allows defenders to deliver clean and big hits with his subtle footwork and shiftiness in tight crevices.
Contributing in the passing game is also a separator for Cook’s candidacy as the best positional player. He’s a true three-down back with his experience in pass blocking and receiving out of the backfield. Any team would immediately benefit from adding Cook to the offense.
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
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Another immensely popular running back who will have a chance at going No. 1 in 2017 is LSU’s bruiser Leonard Fournette. Fournette followed up on a solid freshman season with a freakish 2016 campaign. He totaled 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground, with another 253 yards and one touchdown through the air.
Unlike Cook, Fournette runs through defenders and wears down defenses in the second half. His motor runs high, with the capability of handling the burden of an entire offense and still producing eye-popping numbers. His fit into the NFL is especially intriguing as defenses are becoming smaller to combat the pass-happy nature.
As good as Fournette is at getting downhill, he is stiff in his hips. This is a knock often seen for Alabama’s Derrick Henry in 2016, so it’ll be interesting to see whether the 6’1”, 230-pound Fournette hears those same concerns or not. He does break tackles better than Henry thanks to his leverage advantage.
A power-rushing attack that wants to get back to a physical style of offense would love Fournette’s talent more than a spread offense. Since this running back class is so deep and diverse, which back goes first will solely depend on the identity of the team. There’s simply not a more punishing and reliable option than Fournette at this early juncture.
Jalen Tabor, CB, Florida
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While 2016 first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves III deserved the accolades and hype surrounding him, he was often the second-best cornerback on the Florida Gators last season. The bigger, more physically gifted yet similarly refined Jalen Tabor was the best NFL prospect in the Gators' talented secondary in 2015. He’ll not only emerge as the best cornerback in the 2017 class, but he’s a possible No. 1 overall pick.
At 6’0” and 199 pounds, Tabor fits into both zone and man coverage defensive schemes. His ball-hawking presence was on full display in 2015 as he finished the season with four interceptions and 14 passes defensed. His most notable matchup was against Ole Miss, when he gave receiver Laquon Treadwell fits throughout the game with his physicality and fluidity.
It’s extremely rare for a defensive back to go No. 1. It hasn’t happened since Gary Glick in 1956. But Tabor deserves to be mentioned as a possibility because of his upside and fit into the NFL.
Compared to the top defensive back in 2016 (Jalen Ramsey), Tabor is a more natural and experienced cornerback. That’s not a knock against Ramsey, who was more impressive at safety, but it rather illustrates how well Tabor has played to this point in his career.
Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
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By far the best offensive tackle prospect eligible for the 2017 NFL draft is Alabama left tackle Cam Robinson. The 6’6”, 327-pound mauler arrived on campus as a well-regarded 5-star recruit by 247Sports in 2013. He’s been what head coach Nick Saban had hoped he’d become, and it was evident early in his career his recruiting status was on the money about his potential.
Robinson was a lockdown blocker in his freshman season, then he took a step back last year thanks to a shoulder and knee injury suffered at various points of the year. He didn’t disclose the severity or specific ailments, but it was clear he was hobbled as a sophomore. Assuming he’s fully recovered, Robinson is in position to be in consideration for the No. 1 overall pick.
Recent No. 1 picks at offensive tackle have had mixed results in their first few seasons, but that should have little impact on Robinson. It’s difficult to find quality tackles, which has become the second-most valuable position on offense. If Robinson can prove he’s healthy and dominant again, he’s deserving of No. 1 consideration.
Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State
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Michigan State has been able to build one of the best football programs in the country over the last few seasons. The Spartans' on-field success has led to more high-profile recruits going to East Lansing, Michigan, to become stars. Their best prospect this coming season is defensive tackle Malik McDowell.
Comparing favorably to DeForest Buckner, who was the seventh overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft to the San Francisco 49ers, McDowell will be in the discussion for the No. 1 pick in 2017 if he reaches expectations in his junior campaign. The 6’6”, 280-pound anchor was a 5-star recruit by 247Sports and has delivered on those expectations by starting 15 consecutive games. McDowell finished 2015 as the third-best run defender off interior linemen, according to Pro Football Focus.
With six sacks on his resume to this point, McDowell must continue to develop his production as a penetrator against the passing game. Teams won’t invest overly high in just a run-stuffer, no matter how talented he is in just that regard. But if McDowell can help replace the void defensive end Shilique Calhoun left, he’ll boost his value.
We’ve seen premier interior rushers valued highly in previous drafts. Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy and Aaron Donald are recent examples of tackles who could have easily been worth the No. 1 overall pick in their respective classes.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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