UFC 198: Demian Maia vs. Matt Brown, a Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 198 is stacked, but the main card isn't the only place you will find high-level action with heavy implications.
The Fox Sports 1 featured preliminary contest is a high-stakes welterweight showdown between Matt Brown and Demian Maia, ranked No. 5 in Bleacher Report's May rankings of the weight class.
After back-to-back decision losses to Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks, Brown submitted Tim Means in the first round to re-establish his spot in the division. A win over Maia would put him back in the running for a shot at the strap.
Maia is on a four-fight win streak, and a victory on Saturday may make him the next title contender. His UFC 194 performance against Gunnar Nelson is a shining example of just how skilled the Brazilian is.
It's time to break down the matchup between two of the upper echelon in the welterweight division, and see who makes a claim at being the next challenger for divisional gold.
Striking
1 of 5
Neither Brown nor Maia will awe you with pristine technique on their feet, but they are still competent. In fact, Brown is a great example of how MMA striking can be more effective than a specific style inside the Octagon.
Brown can make fights gritty, and according to FightMetric he lands nearly 4 significant strikes per minute inside the cage. He more than doubles Maia's totals in the category.
Maia has improved his stand-up over the years, and has a decent straight left. But Maia isn't going to win too many brawls, especially against a "technical brawler" such as Brown. He will have to rely on his defense and wits to avoid the exchanges.
The American has been able to find high levels of success with his style of striking and he may be able to do so in Brazil this weekend as well. He'll be the better striker in the cage.
Edge: Brown
Grappling
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Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza isn't the only jiu-jitsu world champion on the card this weekend.
Brown has OK wrestling and a decent jiu-jitsu game, but Maia is on a different level entirely. He may be on a different planet.
Maia's performance against noted grappler Gunnar Nelson at UFC 194 put his jiu-jitsu into perspective for those who may have forgotten. He is truly elite on the canvas.
One of the least talked-about attributes of his grappling attack is his single leg takedown against the fence. He is masterful at completing it, and if Brown allows himself to be cornered, look for Maia to utilize that technique to put him on the mat.
Edge: Maia
Submissions
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Well, this is pretty clear. Maia all day.
Maia only has two submission victories since 2010, but do not let that fool you. If he gets the opportunity to submit Brown, he will.
Brown is good enough in his jiu-jitsu to maybe avoid being submitted early, but he's not going to be able to play defense for 15 minutes. He has been submitted by much lesser competition inside the Octagon. He has to be perfect throughout to avoid tapping.
That's a tall order.
Edge: Maia
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X-Factors
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Brown's X-Factor: Aggression
Brown is one of the most exciting fighters in all of the UFC. A big reason for that is his aggression. He should tone it down a half-step, at least in the first round, against Maia.
This is going to be a striker vs. grappler matchup, and he'll need to keep the fight standing. Maia can use Brown's aggression against him to set-up easier takedowns. If Brown is more methodical in the opening round he can be much more effective and begin to tally up the points.
Maia's X-Factor: Avoiding Brawls
Maia can, at times, have a little hubris about his striking. He isn't afraid to mix it up. But he needs to avoid it on Saturday.
That is the style of fight Brown thrives in, and he is much better at it than the former middleweight title challenger. Maia may not get finished, but he won't score nearly enough point to win on the judge's scorecards if he continually brawls.
Using exchanges to get inside for a takedown is fine as long as he doesn't eat too many strikes. But if he is too prideful and tries to make a point he'll be on the wrong side of the decision.
Prediction
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This is such a wonderful fight. High-level, exciting fighters with contrasting styles. It's what makes MMA beautiful.
The oddsmakers, courtesy of Odds Shark, have Brown as a +270 (bet $100 to win $270) underdog, and that's accurate. Maia is the better fighter.
Maia has more outs to win this fight, and should get his hand raised unless he plays into Brown's hand with wild brawls. Look for Maia to cut off the cage and tie-up Brown. Once he gets his paws on Brown, the fight's complexion changes to the tone of the Brazilian.
Brown will survive the first, but not the second. Maia will take him down and patiently works until a window opens. And then he'll shut it on Brown's throat.
Dear UFC, give Maia a title shot.
Prediction: Maia defeats Brown via submission in the second round
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