Michigan Football: Predicting the Wolverines' 2016 Win-Loss Record
The 2016 Michigan squad has College Football Playoff aspirations, but the Wolverines must capitalize on a home-heavy early schedule before hitting the road down the stretch.
Returning starters all over the roster highlight Jim Harbaugh's second year at his alma mater, so the Maize and Blue should enjoy a fast start to the season.
While that experience and a soft schedule will allow new contributors to steadily become comfortable, Michigan must be ready for a tough slate beginning on Oct. 29. The Big Ten's top three finishers from 2015 await the Wolverines.
And the level of success—or lack thereof—in those contests will determine whether Michigan reaches the Big Ten Championship Game and potentially the CFP.
Note: Some predictions may change at a later date, especially when we have a better idea of what to expect from programs like Michigan State and Ohio State. But most results won't change.
Sept. 3 vs. Hawaii
1 of 12
Similar to 2015, the nonconference slate certainly won't be confused with a difficult one. Michigan defeated Oregon State, UNLV and BYU by a combined total of 94-14.
Hawaii finished 0-6 on the road and 0-8 in the Mountain West last season. That doesn't bode well for the Rainbow Warriors.
As long as the Wolverines contain Paul Harris (1,132 yards, six touchdowns), the 2016 regular-season opener won't be remotely close.
Prediction: Win
Sept. 10 vs. UCF
2 of 12
Carrying on the "winless in 2015" trend, Central Florida provides the ultimate awful. It was 0-12.
The program hired Scott Frost as head coach, who is implementing Oregon's uptempo attack with a capable quarterback in Justin Holman. Considering UCF tallied the third-fewest points last season, Frost has brought a much-needed overhaul.
Plus, since the Wolverines had some trouble defending fast-paced spread offenses in 2015, this is a decent tune-up game—as well as a formidable test for the Knights.
But that's all. Michigan isn't losing this game.
Prediction: Win
Sept. 17 vs. Colorado
3 of 12
In 1994, Kordell Stewart stunned Wolverines players, coaches and fans with a Hail Mary touchdown as time expired.
Don't expect Miracle at Michigan II.
Colorado has struggled since joining the Pac-12, mustering just five conference victories in five seasons. Under head coach Mike MacIntyre, the Buffs are 2-25 in Pac-12 action and 10-27 overall.
"You must learn to crawl before you learn to walk," the saying goes. Colorado won't defeat a CFP contender on the road before it defeats a conference foe that didn't finish winless in the Pac-12 (2013 Cal, 0-9, and 2015 Oregon State, 0-9).
Prediction: Win
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Sept. 24 vs. Penn State
4 of 12
Three years ago, the eventual departure of Christian Hackenberg seemed like it would be a sad day in Happy Valley. But there's actually a fair bit of optimism at Penn State post-Hack.
Do the Nittany Lions have enough to overpower Michigan? Probably not. Will they get trampled? Unlikely.
Few football-related things are more dangerous than allowing a visiting opponent to hang around. Theoretically, the combination of Trace McSorley, Saquon Barkley and Chris Godwin are capable of helping Penn State do exactly that.
The Wolverines have a clear edge, but their Big Ten opener certainly won't be a blowout.
Prediction: Win
Oct. 1 vs. Wisconsin
5 of 12
Wisconsin fits a similar mold to Penn State in being a consistently tough opponent. Controlling the ball and clock increases the impact of mistakes, and the Badgers offense is a run-focused attack.
Not since 2010 has Wisconsin lost by more than seven points in Ben Ten action. Last year, it fell to Iowa 10-6 and Northwestern 13-7.
This season, Corey Clement should be available, while Bart Houston will take over for Joel Stave. The Badgers' entire front seven returns except for Joe Schobert, and the offensive line is always strong.
Although Michigan is the better team, it may have a difficult time pulling away from Wisconsin.
Prediction: Win
Oct. 8 at Rutgers
6 of 12
For the first time all season, the Wolverines won't enter the friendly environment of Michigan Stadium. Harbaugh's squad heads to Rutgers, which hired Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash as head coach.
The strength of Michigan's defensive line will be tested in this matchup. Rutgers plans to utilize a run-based uptempo attack, presumably with Robert Martin and Josh Hicks in leading roles.
But Ash still has a quarterback problem. Hayden Rettig could be the best option, but he never received a fair shot behind Chris Laviano, who was dreadful at Michigan in 2015 last year. Plus, the Scarlet Knights must replace leading receiver Leonte Carroo.
Although Rutgers should improve, it's still a year from really competing with the Wolverines and Buckeyes.
Prediction: Win
Oct. 22 vs. Illinois
7 of 12
Illinois is yet another 2016 opponent with a new head coach, but no other has Lovie Smith's level of experience.
The former Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers leader returned to the college ranks after spending 20 years in the NFL. He has a solid foundation in Wes Lunt, Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Dawuane Smoot.
However, the Illini lost a majority of their production on defense, namely Clayton Fejedelem, T.J. Neal, Mason Monheim and Jihad Ward, among others.
Stealing a road win at Michigan Stadium would be an unexpectedly great step for Illinois. But unless its defense shows serious development by mid-October, the Wolverines are the obvious pick.
Prediction: Win
Oct. 29 at Michigan State
8 of 12
Since a six-game winning streak from 2002-2007, Michigan has mustered a single victory over in-state rival Michigan State.
On paper, this is the year that should end. The Spartans lost quarterback Connor Cook and wide receiver Aaron Burbridge as well as standout offensive linemen Jack Conklin and Jack Allen.
MSU typically pounds the ball, but Cook was the difference-maker last season after the ground game trudged to 58 yards on 33 attempts. Can Tyler O'Connor match that impact?
Ever-so-tentatively, Michigan holds a small advantage. If the Spartans offer a reasonably balanced attack, though, the Wolverines' trend of shortcomings could continue.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 5 vs. Maryland
9 of 12
Maryland will be a bother.
In 2015, Michigan struggled to pull away from the Terps because of their defense. That'll be more difficult in 2016 because former U-M defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin is now Maryland's head coach.
But what hurt the Terrapins then will again: bad offense. Durkin needs to figure out if Perry Hills, Caleb Rowe, Gage Shaffer or Tyrrell Pigrome is the quarterback. That's merely the first step. Getting them to execute against the Wolverines is a different story.
The Wolverines should have control of this contest, but Maryland's defense will be annoying enough to keep it close for a while.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 12 at Iowa
10 of 12
Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa pose relatively similar problems, but the primary difference is the Hawkeyes will host Michigan.
Iowa finished 7-0 at home, but it only dominated Illinois State, North Texas and Purdue, the Big Ten's worst team. The Hawkeyes clipped Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Nebraska; they needed two late field goals to dispatch Illinois.
The Wolverines present a more arduous task, especially if their defensive line shuts down Iowa's running game. C.J. Beathard's ability to deal with pressure will determine if the Hawkeyes can record their signature win of 2015—or if Michigan continues rolling.
For now, the scales favor the Wolverines in a close one.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 19 vs. Indiana
11 of 12
Indiana's level of success in 2016 depends on a new quarterback—perhaps JUCO signee Richard Lagow—assimilating to an offense with proven talents.
Devine Redding, Simmie Cobbs Jr., Ricky Jones and Mitchell Paige present respectable options at running back and receiver. Dan Feeney leads a relatively experienced unit up front.
The Hoosiers simply didn't need to pass the ball against Michigan last season, completely dominating the line of scrimmage. Barring injuries, though, that likely won't happen to the Wolverines again. Ryan Glasgow and Rashan Gary figure to be available.
Considering Indiana's talent on offense, this is a prototypical trap game. Michigan could get caught looking ahead to Ohio State. But the Wolverines defense will do just enough to snatch the victory.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 26 at Ohio State
12 of 12
Theoretically, college football fans have learned to never doubt Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer. He's won at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida and Ohio State—particularly here, amassing a 50-4 record.
Yes, the Buckeyes just lost 12 players to the NFL and a few other undrafted free agents. But other than Alabama, no school has collected more elite talent over the last four recruiting cycles.
With J.T. Barrett at quarterback, Pat Elflein at center and Raekwon McMillan at linebacker, Ohio State's core is sturdy.
Besides, Meyer has 11 games to fine-tune his roster before hosting Michigan. It's smarter to trust Meyer will be ready for Nov. 26 and adjust accordingly if necessary.
Prediction: Loss
Regular-Season Record: 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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