Kentucky Derby Odds 2016: Last-Minute Updates and Picks
It’s that time of year again, the first Saturday of May and a field of 20 three-year-olds will thunder around historic Churchill Downs looking to be adorned with roses after winning the first jewel of the Triple Crown.
Over 170,000 fans and bettors showed up at Churchill Downs last year to witness history as American Pharoah won as the wagering favorite and went on to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.
What do we have in store for us this year? The undefeated Nyquist will garner the most support at the betting windows, but he has 19 foes he has to beat under the Twin Spires.
With the race fast approaching, let's look at a few last-minute updates and predictions on the outcome:
*Odds current through May 6 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Sun Shines Above Twin Spires
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Mother Nature is indeed a racing fan.
For the third year in a row, the main track will be fast for the Run for the Roses. According to Weather.com, the forecast is going to be just about perfect.
The sun will be out with a high of 84 degrees and 50 percent humidity. The only downside could be the ice melting in the Mint Juleps, but perfect for the horses and their connections.
We had sloppy tracks in 2009, 2010 and 2013, but no need for an umbrella this year, just sunscreen and sunglasses.
Nyquist Early Betting Favorite
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Nyquist has remained the betting favorite for the race since his victory over Mohaymen in the Florida Derby (G1) on April 2. His current odds at Odds Shark stand at 3-1, and the colt is installed as the 3-1 on the official morning line provided by Churchill Downs.
In advanced wagering from KentuckyDerby.com on Friday with $590,000 in the win pool as of 4:30 p.m. ET, the colt has been bet down to the 2-1 favorite.
Exaggerator is the second choice in early betting at 5-1, down from his 8-1 morning line while Gun Runner is at 9-1, a click lower than his 10-1 morning line.
Mohaymen was listed at 10-1 on the morning line but has drifted up to 13-1 in the early wagering. Mor Spirit is right on his morning line odds of 12-1.
Shagaf has the honor of being the biggest long shot in the early betting at 71-1. The colt was listed at 20-1 on the morning line.
Pletcher Drought Continues
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He has won over 4,000 races and was named the Eclipse Award winner for outstanding trainer seven times so far in his career, but Todd Pletcher seems to have trouble finding his way to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs.
He lost with his first 24 Derby starters, finally getting the job done with Super Saver in 2010, and he has gone without a win since—his current record in the race standing at 1 for 43.
He sends out Destin and Outwork this year.
Destin has not raced since winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 12, a 56-day break. His current betting odds are 14-1.
Outwork won the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct in his last start and is currently at betting odds of 16-1.
Destin appears to have the most talent, but no horse has won the race off a 56-day or more break since Sir Barton in 1918.
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Betting Favorite Streak Ends
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As wide-open as the Kentucky Derby usually is, and with recent winners that pair over $100, we go into this year’s edition with Nyquist attempting to become the fourth consecutive betting favorite to win the race.
Orb at a lukewarm 5-1 won in 2013, California Chrome got the job done in 2014 at 5-2 and last year’s winner American Pharoah was also sent off as the favorite at odds of 5-2.
The last time we have seen four betting favorites win in consecutive years was from 1972 to 1975. We had three in a row from 2006 to 2008.
Nyquist is likely to go off as the favorite this year, but despite being the champion juvenile of 2015 and undefeated in seven career starts, he does not exactly tower over the rest of the field.
“On speed figures, Nyquist does not stand out,” wrote Jay Privman of The Daily Racing Form. “His career-best Beyer Speed Figure is a 101, earned sprinting in the San Vicente Stakes. His best two-turn figure, a 94 earned in the Florida Derby, is no better than many others in here – of his 19 rivals, nine have run at least that fast in a two-turn race.”
It seems more likely the streak ends and the toteboard lights up.
Long Shots with a Fighting Chance
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If you are not a chalk player, there are plenty of viable options for you in this year’s race. Nyquist is going to be the betting favorite, but there is value to be found elsewhere.
Mor Spirit is at odds of 12-1 at Odds Shark and it is hard to knock a colt sent out by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert with a Hall of Fame rider in Gary Stevens.
Destin is at odds of 14-1 and while his trainer Todd Pletcher has a poor record in the Run for the Roses, he earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the Tampa Bay Derby. Only Exaggerator’s 103 for his Santa Anita Derby victory is higher.
Creator is 12-1 and coming off a victory in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, a race American Pharoah used as a prep last year, as did Super Saver in 2010.
Feel free to swing for the fences, this is a wide-open Derby.
Prediction for Show
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Mohaymen was the early wagering favorite for the Kentucky Derby, down as low as +225 (moneyline odd of +225—bet $100 to win $225) at Odds Shark back on March 10.
However, the colt came up short at odds of 4-5 in his final prep, the Florida Derby (G1) where he was fourth, beaten 8 ¼ lengths by the winner Nyquist.
It’s tough to win the Kentucky Derby without a sharp prep. The last five winners came into the race off a victory and since 1996, only two horses have finished fourth and come back to win the Kentucky Derby. They were Mine That Bird and Giacomo—two of the biggest upsets in the history of the race.
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has not lost any confidence, and it seems likely this talented colt is going to bounce back with a much better effort on Saturday, but it may not be good enough to pick up the win.
McLaughlin, via KentuckyDerby.com:
"Everything’s gone great. We haven’t lost any confidence. We like our chances. We just hope for a clean trip, that’s the most important thing. We just want him to break well and try to have a clean trip. He’s been doing great. He has a good energy level.
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Prediction for Place
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Exaggerator comes into the race off the most impressive Road to the Kentucky Derby points race, winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in the slop and earning a 103 Beyer—the top last out number in the field.
The colt was beaten by Nyquist in the San Vicente (G2) in February and was behind both Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit in the San Felipe (G2) but put it all together in his last start.
His trainer Keith Desormeaux will give a leg up to his brother Kent, a Hall of Fame rider.
The colt won last out as if he still has a little left in the tank, and he figures to be in the mix and looks like decent value at his current Kentucky Derby betting odds of 7.5-1.
Prediction for Win
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Mor Spirit is going to offer some value, currently at betting odds of 14-1 at Odds Shark. It also does not hurt to have Hall of Fame connections Bob Baffert and Gary Stevens in your corner.
Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby four times and Stevens has booted home three. They team up again trying to turn the tables on a couple of foes that beat the colt in his last two starts.
Second to Danzing Candy in the San Felipe (G2) and the runner up in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) to Exaggerator, we could see this colt win at a generous price.
Baffert knows how to get them ready to win on the first Saturday of May, and Stevens is as good as it gets making adjustments after a loss.
Together they could head to Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes (G1) with another Triple Crown bid hanging in the balance.
Betting odds via Oddsshark.com.
Statistics via Churchill Downs and Equibase.
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport.
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