NFL Rookies Guaranteed to Prove Experts Wrong in 2016
The fallout from the 2016 NFL draft class has left an opportunity to analyze specific team fits. After months of evaluating talent and projecting how individuals will play at the next level, there’s a much clearer picture of what will happen on the field. Rookies who were regarded in one light can quickly change the perception if they have the right chance to succeed.
Draft experts in the media generally do a terrific job in their proclamations, but every evaluator can be wrong. This isn’t just a statement on media members, but the NFL is incorrect often as well. As a result, we’ve found eight players who are guaranteed to prove experts wrong in 2016.
We’ll dive into each situation as to why these late-round picks will overcome the doubts. Make sure to leave your predictions for these players in the comments section below.
Tyvis Powell, S, Seattle Seahawks
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The 2016 NFL draft was kind to the Ohio State Buckeyes football program, as 12 players were selected throughout the 253 total picks. All but one of their significant contributors from the 2015 squad heard their name called, with safety Tyvis Powell going undrafted. He signed a contract with the Seattle Seahawks as an undrafted free agent after the event.
Powell going undrafted was surprising because of his production, size and pedigree earned at Ohio State. The 6’3”, 211-pound free safety was a projected fifth-round pick, which seemed low before the draft. Although it may seem high now, the experts will be proved wrong with Powell’s draft rank.
NFL.com's Lance Zierlein projected a Day 3 landing spot for Powell, remarking that he fits best as a single-high safety who can roam. While Powell won’t start for the Seahawks, he’ll outperform his undrafted status to earn a backup job. Seattle relies on free safety Earl Thomas to cover ground, but those types of safeties are hard to find.
His competition for a backup job is weak, with developmental projects Steven Terrell and Robert Smith as his peers. Powell will show the tenacity and talent that led to his 195 tackles, eight interceptions and nine passes defensed in his career and prove that he was more than a mere flier pick.
Travis Feeney, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Pittsburgh Steelers waited to address a need for an athletic linebacker, taking Washington's Travis Feeney in the sixth round. The 6'4", 230-pounder has the ideal frame for the Steelers’ 3-4 defensive front as either a rush or inside linebacker. He needs to add more lower-body strength, but he has the structure to hold up.
Feeney is a terrific athlete, and he confirmed at the NFL Scouting Combine what his film showed. He put up a 4.50-second 40-yard dash, a 40-inch vertical and 130-inch broad jump. Each mark ranked in the top 8 percent of all linebacker measurements since 1999, per Mock Draftable.
While Feeney looks the part, he's had some issues staying on the field. He's talented when he's healthy, compiling 248 tackles, 33.5 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks in his collegiate career. He also stood out in 2014 on a defense with Marcus Peters, Danny Shelton and Hau'oli Kikaha.
The health issue is a big one, as he had four shoulder surgeries in college and a hernia surgery this offseason. It's impossible to guarantee his health moving forward, but he was able to play in 51 games at Washington. Moving into a more part-time role with NFL medical staff could be the right mixture for Feeney to stay on the field.
CBS Sports projected Feeney as a fifth- or sixth-round pick, noting that he’s gangly and has an awkward build. But the Steelers can immediately benefit from his speed and open-field versatility, including his ability to drop into man coverage. He’ll see the field early with his range of motion and speed.
Willie Henry, DT, Baltimore Ravens
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At 6’3” and 303 pounds, Baltimore Ravens fourth-round pick Willie Henry is a grown man at the tender age of 22. The former Michigan Wolverines defensive tackle is an ideal 4-3 fit as a 3-technique who can penetrate upfield. He registered a career-high 6.5 sacks in 2015 under a new coaching staff that helped maximize his talent.
His fit with the Ravens is perfect as they transition to a 4-3 front. He’s strong when he anchors against one blocker but does struggle against double-teams. The Ravens can unleash him as a rotational rusher as he continues to condition his body for a bigger role.
The depth-chart situation bodes well for Henry to earn early playing time. He and Carl Davis can spell each other on passing downs to stay fresh and give offensive lines a challenge. Working next to star tackle Brandon Williams will also help him see more one-on-one situations since Williams is a disruptive force.
Media experts were low on Henry, as CBS Sports had him as the 184th-best player and 18th-ranked defensive tackle in the class. Projecting him as a fifth- or sixth-round pick, CBS Sports' Dane Brugler lauded his effort, athleticism and ability to shoot gaps. Henry's landing spot in Baltimore will maximize those strengths and make him an undervalued commodity throughout his rookie season.
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Landon Turner, OG, New Orleans Saints
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Some players fall into the perfect situation for them to flourish throughout their careers. This could be the case for former North Carolina right guard Landon Turner. He went undrafted but landed with the New Orleans Saints as a free agent after the event.
At 6’4” and 330 pounds, Turner is a physical brute as a blocker. He was a key cog in an explosive Tar Heels offense, often serving as the lead blocker for star running back Elijah Hood. He’s not explosive or even a good athlete for the position, but that’s an overblown value in power-gap run schemes.
The Saints have a massive hole at right guard as the roster stands. The rest of the line is set and is one of the best in the NFL, but there’s an opportunity for Turner to compete to start as a rookie. This will defy the odds set forth by CBS Sports' Dane Brugler, who rated him as a sixth-round value.
Brugler noted his limited athleticism and some technical aspects that must be cleaned up. These are factors that likely led to Turner being undrafted. While Brugler is correct, Turner won't be asked to reach-block often in the Saints' run-scheme. His job will be to take the man directly in front of him and overwhelm with sheer power.
The Saints have previously worked with other linemen with technique issues, including recent draft picks Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat. Armstead is now one of the top tackles in the NFL, and Peat has successfully transitioned to left guard in the last year. Turner will benefit from a high level of coaching.
Dean Lowry, DE, Green Bay Packers
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The Green Bay Packers entered the 2016 NFL draft with a massive need for help along the defensive line. The only guaranteed starter is Mike Daniels as the penetrating defensive tackle, and he’s a phenomenal player. But the lack of other proven talent on the depth chart was startling.
General manager Ted Thompson took advantage of the deep defensive line talent in this class by waiting until the fourth round to add a second player along the unit. First-round pick Kenny Clark will manage the nose tackle spot, and Northwestern defensive end Dean Lowry will immediately challenge for playing time at the 5-technique position. Lowry was the 137th overall player taken.
Lowry is 6’6” and 296 pounds but has short 31" arms for his build. His lack of length and average athleticism led to a seventh-round grade from NFL.com expert Lance Zierlein. Zierlein’s projection included a ceiling as a backup-type player who is productive based on effort.
That’s a low opinion of Lowry, who accumulated 31 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks throughout his career with Northwestern. He won’t be asked to rack up sacks for Green Bay, but he’ll battle incumbent Datone Jones for the starting job. Considering how much Jones has struggled, it wouldn’t be surprising if Lowry becomes a starter as a rookie.
Daniel Lasco, RB, New Orleans Saints
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Running back Daniel Lasco is another player the New Orleans Saints grabbed whom media experts are relatively low on. The Saints have done an excellent job of capitalizing on undervalued talent and squeezing the most out of their skill sets, even if in limited roles. This explosive offense utilizes multiple backs like few other teams can do.
Lasco is the epitome of a Saints back who can explode for a few big games and then be relegated. This frustrates fantasy football fans to no end, but there’s value in stashing physically gifted playmakers who can maximize their touches. Even as a seventh-round pick, Lasco looks like a good bet to make this final roster if he’s healthy.
He’s a terrific athlete who struggled with lower-body injuries in 2015, including a hip strain and sprained ankle. That’s partially why Bleacher Report Lead NFL Draft Writer Matt Miller graded Lasco as an undrafted free agent. Despite Lasco being productive and a difference-maker in 2014, Miller feels he is a limited player.
This could prove to be wrong and more a result of his injury-riddled 2015 season. In his more impressive junior campaign in 2014, Lasco accumulated 1,471 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 6.1 yards per touch. The Saints will rotate him to keep him fresh and effective.
Jordan Lucas, DB, Miami Dolphins
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The Miami Dolphins decided to commit most of their draft resources to their offense to give new head coach Adam Gase more playmakers. That strategy will be interesting to watch play out, but the Dolphins did add two talented defensive backs. Second-round pick Xavien Howard was well thought of by media experts, but sixth-round pick Jordan Lucas was not.
Lucas was rated as the 288th overall player by CBS Sports draft expert Dane Brugler. The versatile defensive back was a former cornerback who moved to safety in his final season with Penn State. Brugler’s concerns stem from average athleticism and lack of length.
The Nittany Lions saw good production from Lucas at safety thanks to his run-defending talent and versatility to play high in coverage or near the line of scrimmage. He’s not a ball-hawking talent, but he’s safe and doesn’t give up big plays. He finished his career with 181 total tackles, 11 tackles for loss, four sacks, three interceptions and 25 passes defensed.
The Dolphins’ depth chart is also a good fit for Lucas. He’ll battle for the fifth cornerback and second strong safety position on the roster. Considering he’s the most recent investment into the position by a new front office and coaching staff, his outlook is positive.
Maurice Canady, CB, Baltimore Ravens
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It’s not a surprise the Baltimore Ravens cleaned up the Day 3 board. General manager Ozzie Newsome has been one of the best in the NFL at acquiring talent through the draft, as he’s built a deep and competitive team for many years. It appears his 2016 haul represents another great performance.
The Ravens have significant long-term concerns in the secondary that they addressed with this class. Fourth-round pick Tavon Young could settle into Lardarius Webb’s hybrid slot corner and safety role in the next few years. But it’s sixth-round pick Maurice Canady who could make a big name for himself.
Baltimore now has several cornerbacks who play their best in the slot, including Kyle Arrington, Will Davis, Webb and Young. No. 1 cornerback Jimmy Smith is an underrated star, but he needs more help across from him. It’s conceivable that Canady could earn that starting job as a rookie at some point this season.
Canady is a long and rangy player at 6’1” and 193 pounds. He’s not the fastest player despite running a 4.49 40-yard dash at the combine, but he finds the ball and can disrupt passing windows. He finished his career at Virginia with five interceptions and 26 passes defensed.
NFL.com draft expert Lance Zierlein projected Canady as a potential backup and a late-round pick. Canady has a great opportunity to prove that wrong, as there’s a need for length and ball skills in Baltimore’s outside cornerback rotation.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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