Kentucky Derby 2016 Post Positions: Latest Odds, Historical Stats for Each Slot
The Kentucky Derby is one of the biggest spectacles in horse racing, and this year's Run for the Roses figures to live up to that billing Saturday when Nyquist attempts to embark on a Triple Crown quest on the heels of American Pharoah's historic 2015 effort.
Before breaking down historical stats worth considering for all 20 post positions, here's a look at the odds and the complete starting order for this year's field:
| 1 | Trojan Nation | Aaron Gryder | Patrick Gallagher | +6600 |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | Luis Quinonez | Donnie Von Hemel | +2000 |
| 3 | Creator | Ricardo Santana Jr. | Steven Asmussen | +1200 |
| 4 | Mo Tom | Corey Lanerie | Thomas Amoss | +2200 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | Florent Geroux | Steven Asmussen | +900 |
| 6 | My Man Sam | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Chad Brown | +2000 |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated | Julien Leparoux | Michael Maker | +6600 |
| 8 | Lani | Yukata Take | Mikio Matsunaga | +2800 |
| 9 | Destin | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | +1400 |
| 10 | Whitmore | Victor Espinoza | Ron Moquett | +1800 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | Kent Desormeaux | J. Keith Desormeaux | +750 |
| 12 | Tom's Ready | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Dallas Stewart | +4000 |
| 13 | Nyquist | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | +300 |
| 14 | Mohaymen | Junior Alvarado | Kiaran McLaughlin | +800 |
| 15 | Outwork | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | +1600 |
| 16 | Shagaf | Joel Rosario | Chad Brown | +2800 |
| 17 | Mor Spirit | Gary Stevens | Bob Baffert | +1400 |
| 18 | Majesto | Emisael Jaramillo | Gustavo Delgado | +3300 |
| 19 | Brody's Cause | Luis Saez | Dale Romans | +1400 |
| 20 | Danzing Candy | Mike Smith | Clifford Sise Jr. | +2000 |
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Post Position Stats and Trends
Post No. 1
To say the odds are stacked against Trojan Nation would be a bit of an understatement. While the first post has produced 12 Derby winners all-time, a horse hasn't scampered to victory out of the inside position since 1986.
All told, horses running out of the first gate are 0 for 17 since 1999.
Post No. 2
Suddenbreakingnews is an intriguing 20-1 long shot, but historical trends indicate this year's winner won't be running out of the second post.
Affirmed in 1978 was the last horse to win the Run for the Roses out of the two spot, and contenders running out of the unenviable position have generally been pushed toward the back of the pack of late.
Post No. 3
Like the one and two posts, the third gate is also winless dating back to 1999. However, Real Quiet did burst out of post three to capture a Derby crown in 1998—so it wouldn't be unheard of for Creator (12-1) to find some success just off the rail.
Post No. 4
The fourth post has churned out 11 winners all-time, which ranks tied for third among starting gates dating back to 1900.
Super Saver in 2010 was the last to taste victory running out of gate No. 4, but two wins for the post in six years would be a surprise considering it has produced just one winner since 1999.
Post No. 5
Here's the big one.
The fifth post has produced an all-time Derby-best 13 winners since 1900, with California Chrome representing the most recent in 2014.
Those trends make Louisiana Derby winner and Derby points leader Gun Runner a great value at 9-1 as the chestnut colt seeks an upset of Nyquist.
Post No. 6
Unlike the fifth post, the sixth post hasn't experienced tremendous success over the years. Only six Derby winners can call the six spot home, and there hasn't been a victor out of the spot since Sea Hero in 1993.
Factor in My Man Sam's status as a 20-1 outsider, and the sixth post's drought should continue for another year.
Post No. 7
Along with Trojan Nation, Oscar Nominated has the longest odds of any horse in this year's Kentucky Derby.
However, it should be noted the seventh post has been a sneaky-good play over the past few years. Street Sense won the Derby running out of post seven in 2007, and Dortmund ran to a third-place finish from that some spot a year ago.
Post No. 8
The eighth post has been responsible for a stellar 11 wins since 1900, including Mine That Bird in 2009, but Lani has developed into somewhat of an afterthought at 28-1 due to his infamous attitude.
"He’s not a horse with a temperament willing to run always," jockey Yutaka Take told reporters, according to USA Today's Dan Wolken. "I can’t tell you if he’ll want to run on Derby Day or not."
Post No. 9
Destin is an intriguing under-the-radar option at 14-1, but the ninth post does not have a particularly happy history over the years at Churchill Downs.
It's been 44 years since Riva Ridge won out of post nine, and only four winners have bolted out of that gate en route to a title since 1900.
Post No. 10
Whitmore isn't garnering much buzz out of a 10th post that last produced a winner in 2005 (Giacomo), but the chestnut gelding will be paced by legendary jockey Victor Espinoza—who's coming off of a legendary run with American Pharoah.
"I’m with a different horse and a different team," Espinoza said, according to WWD.com's Rosemary Feitelberg. "But I always think that no matter what happens, I will have a chance to win the Kentucky Derby as long as I have a horse in the race."
Post No. 11
Buzz has been building for Exaggerator as a trendy pick, but it would undoubtedly be an upset for a horse to win out of the 11th post position.
The 11th post's last winner was Winning Colors in 1988, and, additionally, only three horses have found championship success from the spot since 1900.
Post No. 12
The odds were already stacked against Tom's Ready at 40-1, and the fact that the 12th post hasn't been responsible for a winner since Canonero II in 1971 should put thoughts of an upset bid to rest.
Post No. 13
Nyquist has earned the title of morning-line favorite at 3-1, but the 13th post position is responsible for just four Kentucky Derby wins since 1900. On top of that, it's been 12 years since Smarty Jones blasted onto horse racing's radar with a 2004 Derby win out of the 13 post.
However, Nyquist's camp doesn't appear concerned.
"Breaking from the 13 is fine," Nyquist trainer Doug O'Neill said, according to NBCSports.com (via SB Nation's Kurt Mensching). "(Nyquist) was No. 13 when he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. So the post draw didn't matter to us a ton. But we're happy being more outside for sure."
More good news for Nyquist: Each of the last three morning-line favorites has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Post No. 14
Mohaymen recently suffered his first loss after falling flat at the Florida Derby, and the gray colt didn't receive particularly good news during Wednesday's draw.
Carry Back was the last horse to win out of the 14th post in 1961, and a grand total of two entrants in the position have gone on to win titles over the past 115 years.
Post No. 15
The auxiliary gates are where things get fun.
Not only did American Pharoah win out of post No. 15 last year, but the first auxiliary gate has produced three winners since 1999.
Outwork has somewhat steep odds at 16-1, but the bay colt deserves consideration as a sleeper given recent trends.
Post No. 16
Just like post No. 15, post 16 has cranked out three winners since 1999.
Combined with the fact that Animal Kingdom ran to victory out of gate No. 16 in 2011, Shagaf's team should be eyeing an upset despite owning 28-1 odds.
Post No. 17
No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby coming out of the 17th post, so it would be a stunner to see trainer Bob Baffert's Mor Spirit buck a nearly four-decade-long trend on Saturday.
"The last time I had the 17 post was Point Given with Gary Stevens (fifth in 2001), and here we are again," Baffert said, according to the Associated Press (via the New York Daily News). "I wanted the 16. All the speed is on the outside, so there will probably be two different races going on."
Post No. 18
Horses running out of the 18th post are just one for 29 all-time, with the lone win coming in 1982 when Gato Del Sol darted to victory.
But with Majesto owning 33-1 odds, the gate's winless skid figures to increase to 34 years by the time Saturday's race comes to a close.
Post No. 19
I'll Have Another became the first horse to ever win out of the 19th post in 2012, so there's certainly some hope for Brody's Cause.
However, replicating that success figures to be a challenge. The bay colt isn't a burner, and he could fall behind early surrounded by several speedsters on the outside.
Post No. 20
Speaking of quick starters, Danzing Candy will need to bolt to the front of the pack out of the far outside post in order to have a shot at joining Big Brown (2008) as the only winners out of the 20th post since 1999.
Furthermore, only two horses have captured Derby wins out of the 20th gate since 1900.
Stats courtesy of America's Best Racing and OddsShark.com. All odds retrieved from OddsShark.com.
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