Winners and Losers for the Week Heading into the 2016 Madrid Masters
As the ATP and WTA tours dive into the Madrid Masters, the past week featured entertaining performances by players other than Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. It was a chance for journeyman veterans to shine as they outlasted a few of the bright, young players for titles at Istanbul, Munich and Estoril, Portugal.
We did learn some players are not ready to be factors at Madrid, which once again exposed "Lost Generation" athletes like Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic and David Goffin.
Meanwhile, the WTA had a light week, and two fringe contenders took advantage of building for the French Open.
All of this and more as this week’s “Winners and Losers” column sets up the pinnacle of French Open competition from Madrid to Rome to Paris.
Winner: Dominic Thiem vs. Alexander Zverev
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What a thriller in Munich for the match of the week. Young regional talents in Austria’s Dominic Thiem and Germany’s Alexander Zverev hooked up for a thrilling duel that could very well be a future rivalry at the top of the ATP.
This time around, it was Thiem rallying back from a one-set deficit to land enough heavy bombs and outlast his younger but strapping competitor, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3. Thiem has been one of the more accomplished clay-court players of the past year, and his strength and growing experience was the difference down the stretch.
"It's unbelievable how he plays at 19 years old,” Thiem said of Zverev in ATP World Tour. “I lost the first set and then I changed a little bit...more slice, more drop shots, and I think this was one of the key points to win it."
Perhaps most important, Thiem capitalized on five of 11 breakpoints. In previous losses to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, Thiem had squandered a combined 29 of 32 breakpoints, which was instrumental in his defeat despite threatening the two modern legends.
Props also to Zverez for defeating David Goffin in a three-setter in the quarterfinals, setting up his showdown with Thiem. There’s no question Zverev is quickly developing his skill set. A few more tough challenges will only help him progress sooner than later.
Loser: Bernard Tomic
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Bernard Tomic is obviously not playing well after missing time with a wrist injury. The beleaguered Aussie has been a perennial lightning rod in his home nation’s press, ranging from untapped potential to off-court problems and Davis Cup inconsistencies.
Perhaps Tomic figured flying into Bucharest the previous week as the No. 1 seed and showing up as the favorite at Istanbul would help him get a few wins and tune up for greater challenges at Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. He crashed out in his first match both times.
In reality, the 6’5” Tomic has mediocre footwork, and it’s especially true on clay where conditioning and desire require players to duel in longer rallies. For his career, Tomic has won 54 percent of his matches, but his record on clay is a dismal 16-27.
Don’t expect him to get through Fabio Fognini in his first match at Madrid, but if so, there will be a well-rested Kei Nishikori waiting in the wings.
Winner: Timea Bacsinszky and Lucie Safarova
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With no dominant WTA favorite for the French Open, there is plenty of parity with several capable stars. Throw Timea Bacsinszky's name into the hat. The world No. 15 picked up her first clay-court title in winning against a weak field in Morocco, but she proved herself last year in getting to the French Open semifinals.
Not to be outdone, No. 16-ranked Lucie Safarova, last year’s French Open runner-up, cruised to victory in Prague against a slightly stronger field than that in Morocco. This is Safarova’s best surface, and with her lefty topspin and excellent footwork, she could make another run at the French Open.
There are more questions than certainties at the top of the WTA. Maria Sharapova, the “Queen of Clay,” will not be competing. Simona Halep has been down. Serena Williams is showing her age. Victoria Azarenka has traditionally been less than her best on clay.
Roland Garros could host a very wild draw with more surprises on its menu than a street-corner cafe.
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Loser: Dominic Thiem
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German veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber loves to play in his home country, and his latest success was his third title at Munich. Six of his seven career titles have been lifted in Germany or Austria. He’s a sound competitor with court intelligence and a throwback attacking at net, even on clay.
But it was finalist opponent Dominic Thiem who lost the opportunity to build his clay-court resume. The Austrian is a hard worker, but as he pointed out in ATP World Tour, it’s difficult to close out every final against other world-class competitors: “Almost every final is close because both players never give up. They want to win the title. I've won the last five finals...now I've lost one.”
Thiem will have his work cut out for him in Madrid. On clay, he should be favored to defeat Roger Federer in the round of 16, but the Swiss has superior big-match success, to say the least, and Thiem will have to expect greater attacking than Kohlschreiber.
Surviving to the quarterfinals, we could see a third battle in three months against a resurgence Rafael Nadal. Is Thiem ready to take that elite step, or will there always be something the other superstars can call upon to distance themselves?
Winner: Nicolas Almagro
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It’s just not that easy to win an ATP title no matter how much talent someone has. Take Nicolas Almagro, a Spaniard with all of the power and footwork necessary to be a star on clay. In his younger and prime years, he looked like he could go toe-to-toe with countryman Rafael Nadal and form what should have been a nice mini-rivalry.
Things rarely follow the script, and Almagro was more erratic than consistent. He was afflicted with stubborn tendencies to always keep hitting harder, and he has often struggled to calm down in the big moments.
This week, with the pressure gone and Almagro seemingly forgotten, the Spaniard scored a huge semifinal victory over young Nick Kyrgios, and then he followed it up with a three-hour final over feisty clay-courter Pablo Carreno Busta.
Will Almagro carry some momentum to Madrid against Borna Coric and Djokovic? Nobody said the ATP is easy, and today’s victory is quickly put on ice when the next day brings a hungry challenger.
Loser: Grigor Dimitrov
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Enough has been written about Grigor Dimitrov’s potential, but by now he has become exactly what he has been for a few years. The Bulgarian is an incredible shotmaker, but he rarely has demonstrated the consistency from match to match to be a big winner.
Dimitrov looked to be a heavy favorite in the Istanbul final against 5’7” clay-courter Diego Schwartzman, but things quickly unraveled. Up a set and 5-2, Dimitrov cramped and fell apart. He nosedived in the final set, losing with an ignominious 6-0 score as he broke his racket for the third time to end the match on a game penalty.
"I started cramping at 5-2 in the second set," said Dimitrov in ATP World Tour. "It was very unfortunate that I couldn’t close out the match. I have to give credit to Diego."
Was it cramping or choking?
Is Dimitrov unwilling to improve his fitness like the top superstars? A couple of years ago, things were looking good under hard-nosed coach Roger Rasheed, but Dimitrov didn’t follow through for the long haul, and they eventually parted ways.
He’s still a successful top-30 player and a former Wimbledon semifinalist with big wins ahead, but unless he takes a leap, we might be seeing Dimitrov exactly for who he is.
Winner: Madrid's Draw
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All the ATP superstars are ready to go in Madrid's stacked draw. Djokovic could be tested immediately against Coric or Almagro, followed by a bevy of clay-courters.
Stars like Federer and Nadal will have their hands full with tough competitors like Goffin and Thiem in the early rounds, and then they could see each other in the quarterfinals.
Will Stan Wawrinka start building his momentum, including a second-round possibility in Kyrgios who will no doubt bring out all kinds of emotions and challenges?
Maybe Andy Murray gets the best opportunity tucked way down at the bottom of the bracket. The Scot will need a few good matches to reestablish that he is a strong French Open contender.
It's the first time in years that Madrid has had a legitimate tournament on red clay with all the big contenders ready to go. From the first round to the last, there are great matchups, and there will be plenty of upsets and surprises.
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