'Buy or Sell' with MLB's Top April Rookie Performances of 2016
First impressions are far from everything. No MLB rookie should start writing his Hall of Fame speech after one impressive month.
Patience, however, is a difficult virtue to master early in the season, when successes and failures stand out like giant pimples. Combine the tendency to overreact to April numbers with human instinct to judge someone immediately, and neophytes are especially susceptible to spawning overzealous reactions.
Some fresh faces will enjoy a productive season and career. Others may become a footnote by July if they can't adapt to the opposition's adjustments. It's ultimately too early to know what will become of any first-year players. But since when has that stopped anyone from trying to figure it out?
To stay focused on the true newcomers, let's look beyond Corey Seager and Steven Matz, who still have rookie eligibility despite debuting last season and participating in the postseason. And while the sample sizes are small for everyone, one start apiece isn't enough to analyze premier pitching prospects Blake Snell and Jose Berrios.
The following rookies, a majority of whom hail from the National League, have defied all reasonable expectations by starting their MLB careers in outstanding fashion. Let's dissect the top starts to determine who's for real.
Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros
1 of 8
2016 Stats: .250/.314/.500, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 6 R
This version of Tyler White is good, just probably not the one the Houston Astros expected.
As fellow first baseman A.J. Reed brandished hulking power in the minors last year, White quietly batted .325/.442/.496 in Double-A and Triple-A. While he only belted 14 long balls, he also compiled more walks (84) than strikeouts (73) while swatting 25 doubles.
After winning a big league job with a scorching spring training, the 25-year-old surprisingly homered in thee straight games during the opening week. Nine games into April, he was hitting .483 (14-for-29) with six extra-base hits.
He has since fallen to earth, batting .106 (5-for-47) with 14 strikeouts. Tagged as a potential on-base machine, the former 33rd-round pick has drawn seven walks in 86 plate appearances. After exiting the minors with a 13.9 walk and 13.1 strikeout percentage, this isn't the player Houston or anyone else projected.
Nevertheless, he's still sporting strong numbers on the strength of a sizzling start. That guy couldn't stick around forever, but White is also a more polished hitter than the one enduring growing pains over the past two weeks.
Selling this White doesn't mean he'll regress into a bad player. It's simply a bet of his power and whiffs dropping and his on-base percentage rising.
Verdict: Sell
Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
2 of 8
2016 Stats: .333/.392/.490, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 10 R
Nomar Mazara was poised to debut some time this season, but Shin-Soo Choo's calf injury prompted the Texas Rangers to promote the prospect a week into 2016. Although an early loss forced Texas' hand, the outfielder has proven more than ready for the grand stage.
Mazara loudly announced his arrival by homering in his MLB debut, and he hasn't slowed down since. Heading into May, he leads the Rangers with a .368 weighted on-base average (wOBA). He has reached base in all but one of 17 games.
Mature beyond his years at the plate, the 21-year-old has drawn seven walks while succumbing to 13 strikeouts. While he has benefited from a .373 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), the lefty has also displayed a quick, fluid swing which will lead him to future stardom.
The only concern revolving around Mazara: What happens when Choo comes back? Unless he cools down considerably, the Rangers need to clear space elsewhere, which will prove difficult with Prince Fielder filling the designated hitter role.
The way the rookie is raking, Ian Desmond may have to take a seat instead. His batting average will drop, but Mazara is no flash in the pan.
Verdict: Buy
Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies
3 of 8
2016 Stats: .261/.324/.696, 10 HR, 20 RBI, 19 R, 1 SB
Come on. Everyone knows this won't last forever. Nobody began the season hotter than Trevor Story, who crushed seven home runs in the Colorado Rockies' first six games. The shortstop dominated baseball's news cycle, and hyperbole reigned supreme.
Then, of course, he slowed down. Not even Babe Ruth could homer every day. Story stumbled for two weeks before going deep on Wednesday and Friday. His 10 long balls ties teammate Nolan Arenado for the 2016 lead and matches Jose Abreu for the most hit by a rookie in April.
Here's where the concerns come. The 23-year-old has already struck out 37 times in 22 games. After whiffing plenty in the minors, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see his average dip to .261, and it'll probably drop lower.
As noted by FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan before Story bounced back with two more deep shots, pitchers have made the proper adjustments, inducing weaker contact by working him away. Since the first week, his ground-ball rate has skyrocketed alongside all the punchouts, a dreaded combination for any batter.
Story still stores more pop than most shortstops, especially when playing at Coors Field. The early power barrage bought him time to respond to his opponents' adjustments, but Rockies fans should temper their Troy Tulowitzki 2.0 fantasies.
Verdict: Sell
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Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
4 of 8
2016 Stats: .317/.357/.683, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 11 R, 2 SB
The St. Louis Cardinals once again used their magic spell to turn a little-known minor league into a significant big league contributor.
Careful observers are forgiven for never hearing of Jeremy Hazelbaker before he went nuts in April. Last year, the outfielder didn't rank among the organization's top-30 prospects on MLB.com. He hit .313/.385/.531 in between Double-A and Triple-A, but the impressive line is less notable when produced at age 27.
He seemed like no more than a bench bat fortunate to finally earn a ticket to the majors. Instead, he surprisingly received playing time out of the gate, and he has rewarded manager Mike Matheny's faith with five homers and a .428 wOBA through 23 games.
It's one thing to bunch together a bunch of hits during a hot streak. It's another thing for Hazelbaker to hover near a .700 slugging percentage when he had never hit 20 or more homers in any of his seven minor league seasons. He's generating power despite hitting grounders on more than half of his batted balls, which means a whopping 45.5 percent of his fly balls have cleared the fences.
Common sense says Hazelbaker has a date with regression. Then again, these are the Cardinals, so maybe he's just a perennial .300, 20-homer hitter now.
Verdict: Sell
Aledmys Diaz, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 8
2016 Stats: .423/.453/.732, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 18 R, 1 SB
He didn't grab the headlines with a home run tear like Story, but Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz has made a bigger splash. Pressed into action with Jhonny Peralta sidelined, the 25-year-old sports a ridiculous .500 wOBA.
Weighted runs created (wRC+) is an advanced stat measured on a scale where 100 indicates an average hitter. Diaz has a 212 wRC+. His .310 isolated power would make a mighty fine batting average, but the public pays more attention to dingers than doubles.
Of his 30 hits, eight are doubles and four preceded a stroll around the bases. He did this all while striking out four times. Meanwhile, he collected fives hits on April 23.
The Cuban prospect foreshadowed this breakout by hitting .380/.448/.620 in 14 Triple-A games to close out 2015. He also rounded the bases four times in the Arizona Fall League, and the progress has stuck.
“I started feeling more comfortable at home plate, then I started making good contact and having quality at-bats,” Diaz told ESPN.com's Mark Saxon. “With this sport, it’s always mental.”
Since he's not a mixture of Ted Williams and Barry Bonds, his crazy stats will obviously fade back to earth. That doesn't necessarily mean he's a one-month, multiple-hit wonder. As long as he keeps making contact and utilizing his underrated strength, Diaz is going to create an intriguing dilemma for St. Louis when Peralta returns from the disabled list.
Verdict: Buy
Kenta Maeda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
6 of 8
2016 Stats: 5 GS, 32 IP, 1.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 28 K, 6 BB
When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Kenta Maeda to bolster their rotation behind Clayton Kershaw, they could have only fantasized about him properly replacing Zack Greinke as a potent second ace.
Five starts into his MLB career, the Japanese pitcher has shattered all expectations. He relinquished one run through four outings before surrendering four on Thursday in his first shaky performance. Now he only has a 1.41 ERA.
Like Greinke, Maeda is preventing runs at an elite level without top-tier stuff or strikeout tallies. He's doing so by inducing weak contact. His 22.5 hard-hit percentage is among baseball's lowest rates, and Baseball Savant credits him with a 83.14 mile-per-hour exit velocity against.
He doesn't throw in the high 90s, but he has an arsenal of four effective pitches led by one particularly lethal weapon. Per Brooks Baseball, opponents are hitting .200 with a 39.82 whiff percentage against his slider.
His ERA will eventually rise, and he'll fall out of Cy Young Award consideration once hitters gain familiarity. Maeda's success, however, is far from a complete fluke. The Dodgers found a solid No. 2 starter at a fraction of the cost they would have paid to retain Greinke.
Verdict: Buy
Ross Stripling, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 8
2016 Stats: 5 GS, 27 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 22 K, 12 BB
The Dodgers stockpiled starting pitchers during the offseason, but their depth crumbled before Opening Day. Instead of battling for a rotation spot, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy and Mike Bolsinger all began 2016 on the disabled list.
Ridiculed for chasing quantity over quality, the Dodgers, ironically, scrambled to find a healthy No. 5 starter. They turned to Ross Stripling, a 26-year-old righty who posted a 3.88 ERA in Double-A last season. MLB.com ranked a dozen Dodgers prospects ahead of him while prescribing a "ceiling of a No. 4 starter."
So of course he tossed 7.1 no-hit innings during his MLB debut. It looks like he reached his ceiling early. While his ERA has since inflated to 4.33, the Dodgers have to be grateful for an emergency option offering quality innings and a 3.26 fielding independent pitching (FIP).
To illustrate how drastically stats can change in April, he boasted a 3.33 season ERA on Saturday night with two out in the fifth inning. Then the San Diego Padres squeezed out three runs, chasing him from the contest and raising his ERA a full run.
Along with relinquishing five runs to San Diego, he didn't last four innings against the Atlanta Braves, which holds an MLB-worst .265 wOBA. He has issued a dozen walks in 27 innings, collecting 22 strikeouts after setting a career high with six on Saturday. Despite his memorable welcome, there's little to support Stripling's case as anything more than a fringe starter.
Verdict: Sell
Seung Hwan Oh, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
8 of 8
2016 Stats: 13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 19 K, 6 BB
Making his MLB debut at age 33, Seung Hwan Oh isn't the typical rookie. He also isn't the typical reliever.
He has only faced 50 batters, but the league hasn't come close to figuring him out. The Korean newcomer has allowed five hits, giving opponents a .114/.224/.140 line. Skeptics can't chalk it up to good fortune on batted balls, as nobody is even making contact.
The St. Louis Cardinals righty has registered an MLB-low 53.9 contact percentage among relievers, and his 21.2 swinging-strike percentage places third behind Hector Neris and Junichi Tazawa. Essentially, a batter's best recourse is keeping his bat on his shoulders so he either draws a walk or avoids looking like a fool when he whiffs.
He's not blowing anyone away with high heat, but the righty wields great movement and deception, particularly on his unhittable slider. That's barely a hyperbole. According to Brooks Baseball, his slider has relinquished one hit this season.
The Final Boss is now setting up the ninth inning for closer Trevor Rosenthal, but he could surpass his teammate as St. Louis' most potent reliever.
Verdict: Buy
Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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