2016 NFL Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions and Assessing Buzz on Top Prospects

A pair of risky knees, one talented running back, an iffy quarterback class encouraging reaches and more smoke than the last five years combined define the 2016 NFL draft.

The 2016 class will find itself defined by the reaches and falls of top prospects. There are prospects with serious injury histories, others with off-field issues and beyond. Then there's the scarcity at the most important position of all, which suggests more than the big three quarterbacks could come off the board in the first round.

Not that the NFL would want it any other way. The intrigue means viewers are locked to screens and entertained; it's why the Los Angeles Rams won't reveal who the pick is at No. 1 even though a team wouldn't sell the farm to move up without knowing who it is.

Alas, let the fun begin. Here's a look at an updated mock and some notable prospects receiving plenty of buzz.

2016 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
1	Los Angeles Rams	Jared Goff	QB	California
2	Philadelphia Eagles	Carson Wentz	QB	North Dakota State
3	San Diego Chargers	Jalen Ramsey	CB/S	Florida State
4	Dallas Cowboys	Myles Jack	LB	UCLA
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	Florida
6	Baltimore Ravens	Laremy Tunsil	OT	Ole Miss
7	San Francisco 49ers	Joey Bosa	DL	Ohio State
8	Cleveland Browns	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Darron Lee	LB	Ohio State
10	New York Giants	DeForest Buckner	DE	Oregon
11	Chicago Bears	Shaq Lawson	LB	Clemson
12	New Orleans Saints	Noah Spence	DE/LB	Eastern Kentucky
13	Miami Dolphins	Eli Apple	CB	Ohio State
14	Oakland Raiders	William Jackson III	CB	Houston
15	Tennessee Titans	Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
16	Detroit Lions	Jack Conklin	OT	Michigan State
17	Atlanta Falcons	Reggie Ragland	LB	Alabama
18	Indianapolis Colts	A'Shawn Robinson	DT	Alabama
19	Buffalo Bills	Paxton Lynch	QB	Memphis
20	New York Jets	Jonathan Bullard	DE	Florida
21	Washington	Corey Coleman	WR	Baylor
22	Houston Texans	Mackensie Alexander	CB	Clemson
23	Minnesota Vikings	Josh Doctson	WR	TCU
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Laquon Treadwell	WR	Ole Miss
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	T.J. Green	S	Clemson
26	Seattle Seahawks	Will Fuller	WR	Notre Dame
27	Green Bay Packers	Sheldon Rankins	DT	Louisville
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Michael Thomas	WR	Ohio State
29	Arizona Cardinals	Leonard Floyd	LB	Georgia
30	Carolina Panthers	Kendall Fuller	CB	Virginia Tech
31	Denver Broncos	Jason Spriggs	OT	Indiana

Assessing Buzz on Top Prospects

4. Dallas Cowboys: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

Myles Jack is one of the biggest question marks in the draft because of a knee injury he suffered last year.

For shame, too, because he's also one of the best linebackers to come out in a long time. It's why NFL.com's Lance Zierlein compared him to NaVorro Bowman and an NFL executive told him, "I wouldn't get cute with him. I would stick him at 'Will' and just let him be a free-running chaser. He has the speed to get to everything, and his cover talent will set him apart." 

A rare player indeed, Jack is the subject of never-ending smokescreen material thanks to the knee. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport summed it up well:

Within, Rapoport explained the latest rumblings about Jack's issue:

"

The repair of the lateral meniscus that tore off the bone when he suffered the injury in September is not the issue, according to several sources with direct knowledge of Jack's situation. Instead, the cartilage and bone have begun to separate, creating what is referred to by medical professionals as an osteochondral defect.

"

Remember, though, mid-round teams debating about Jack implies he'll fall. Some teams will have Jack off their draft boards completely, while others won't worry about the issue—understanding each player in the first round comes with an implied risk.

A team such as the Dallas Cowboys, who haven't been great at filling the linebacker position for years, won't have a problem rolling the dice. Jack could wind up as the best player in the class, so an injury gamble seems worth it.

8. Cleveland Browns: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

The lone running back worth a first-round pick this year—which actually does how great a prospect he is a disservice—Ezekiel Elliott is also the most unpredictable.

A popular theory suggests Elliott will land with the Dallas Cowboys at No. 4. Though many admit a running back in the top 10 isn't the greatest use of resources, many believe it makes sense if the prospect is good enough and the impact on the offense would create the equivalent of moving mountains.

Still, as NFL.com's Chris Wesseling recently wrote, Dallas' recent behavior with DeMarco Murray cuts through the smokescreen: "When owner Jerry Jones opted against signing DeMarco Murray to a mega contract last offseason, he espoused a belief that investing too heavily in one running back 'might not be the way to go.' This team has too many needs to splurge on the backfield."

Of course, it doesn't help that the buzz continues to grow around Elliott, as CollegeFootball 24/7 captured:

If Dallas really felt a strong running back was going to put the offense over the top and help the team contend for titles, it probably would have kept Murray and swallowed the costly contract as opposed to leaning on an unproven rookie.

Elliott looks like a better fit with the Cleveland Browns. While still a questionable use of resources at No. 8, the team already traded down once and amassed extra assets, giving itself some wiggle room for a bit of a reach and recouping the value later.

With new head coach Hue Jackson on board, the offense needs an every-down back to shoulder the burden while the coach gets what he can out of Robert Griffin III or a rookie drafted later.

19. Buffalo Bills: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch is the biggest winner of the wild draft process thus far.

With trades defining the top two picks in a weak quarterback class, it's clear Jared Goff and Carson Wentz will be the first players off the board.

Whereas one or both could have taken a dive had the order not changed, thus pushing Lynch down the board, having both gone creates a void a team will look to fill with Lynch. Jenny Vrentas of SI.com's The MMQB concurs:

"

I think the player who benefited the most by the two trades up the board by the Rams and Eagles—besides Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, of course—may very well be Paxton Lynch. Quarterbacks being drafted at No. 1 and No. 2, as is expected, could pull up the rest of the position group. And for many teams, Lynch is next in line. He’s a developmental quarterback, but we could see him go in the Top 20. 

"

Interesting, but this makes Lynch the subject of endless smokescreens. Does Jackson in Cleveland take the dive? What about the New Orleans Saints grabbing a Drew Brees successor? Or the New York Jets after a miserable trip to free agency?

The best bet seems to be the Buffalo Bills at No. 19, something that makes even more sense after digesting a nugget from Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News:

Jackson can develop anyone he wants. New Orleans drafted a Brees successor recently in Garrett Grayson. The Jets can still get Ryan Fitzpatrick back.

Buffalo, on the other hand, hasn't shown commitment to surprise starter Tyrod Taylor, having yet to give him an extension. Given Lynch's status as a project player, letting Taylor start for the duration of his contract and then giving Lynch the controls makes sense.

A 6'7" quarterback who can make plays with his feet but needs time to adjust as a passer, Lynch fits the same mold as Taylor. The difference is not only contractual cash but long-term upside.

Stats are courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of April 27. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.