2016 NFL Draft: The Biggest Dominoes of Day 1

This late in the draft process, no one is unearthing gem prospects. Every one of the 32 NFL franchises have a set big board by now and are focusing on a new task: trying to figure out who comes off the board when.

Front offices are running different scenarios and various mock drafts right now in an attempt to realize where they need to move in the draft to target a specific position or prospect based on the rest of the league's personnel and draft order. That, in some ways, is just as important as how you rank a big board.

We've already seen two teams, the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles, make aggressive trades to get to the top of the draft, and this was after Philadelphia traded to get into the top eight by flipping one-year Eagles Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell to the Miami Dolphins. The NFL draft has a solidified order in mocks, but in practice, the order is fluid on draft day.

Looking at the event from a big-picture standpoint, there are four different characteristics that should impact the draft greatly. Some players are extremely talented but don't fit the needs or schemes of many teams, while others are just some of the few in the supply at a high-demand position. We'll explain the cause and effect of certain players or positions coming off the board in various spots in the first round, including the impact of some potential chain of events.

Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi

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Assuming that the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles didn't just mortgage the future of their franchise on an offensive tackle, Laremy Tunsil of Mississippi won't be drafted with either of the first two picks of the 2016 draft. A popular first-overall-pick candidate when the Tennessee Titans still owned the selection, Tunsil's projection has changed drastically in the past few weeks.

The third and fourth overall picks are held by the San Diego Chargers and the Dallas Cowboys, who have invested enough money and assets at offensive tackle and guard that they would either (a) have to move a current well-paid starter to the bench, or (b) Tunsil would have to ride the pine for a year. If either team is going to sit on an asset when its quarterbacks are rapidly aging in "win-now" mode, it better be a replacement passer.

The fifth overall choice is held by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who just handed their right tackle, Jermey Parnell, a giant contract during the 2015 free-agency period. Their left tackle spot is a battle between Luke Joeckel, the second overall pick from 2013, and Kelvin Beachum, who is on a "prove it" deal. If the Jaguars bring in Tunsil, they would essentially accept moving two of those tackles to the bench immediately, which would be unheard of in the NFL.

Tunsil, who some believe is the top prospect in the draft and is a generational talent, may have to wait until the sixth overall pick to come off the board, where the Baltimore Ravens need a short-term right tackle starter and a long-term answer at left tackle. This is a similar situation as the 2015 draft, when "elite" prospect Leonard Williams, a USC defensive end, wasn't drafted until the sixth overall pick because of team needs and scheme fit. The difference is that the 2015 draft didn't see a single trade until the 15th pick, whereas there have already been five of the top 15 picks flipped in this particular draft class before the event even has kicked off.

Will a sliding Tunsil force someone's hand to trade up for the bookend? Who does that displace in the draft order? Will he fall all the way down to Baltimore, where general manager Ozzie Newsome is known to take a "best player available" in the first round? Tunsil's projection is volatile, but early, which makes when he comes off the board one of the keys to seeing how this first round shakes out.

Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

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How high can Paxton Lynch of Memphis go? With Jared Goff of California and Carson Wentz of North Dakota State presumably coming off the board with the top two picks of the draft, could Lynch go third or fourth? San Diego's quarterback, Philip Rivers, is turning 35 years old this season, and Dallas' Tony Romo just turned 36.

Rivers has played through injuries before, most notably his torn ACL in a 2008 playoff effort against the New England Patriots, but as Romo, who missed 12 games last season, can explain, an aging body has physical limits that can't be surpassed with "want." At some point, these teams need to look at quarterbacks of the future before it's too late, and Lynch is likely to be the final consensus first-round passer available by the time they come up to bat.

The San Francisco 49ers are sitting in the seventh slot in the draft, with drama surrounding Colin Kaepernick and only Blaine Gabbert pushing the former Super Bowl passer. Is San Francisco his floor?

The New York Jets don't have a starting quarterback, unless you count Geno Smith, who only threw a live pass in one game in 2016. Do they trade up from the 20th overall pick to try to take a cheap alternative at quarterback since they are struggling to find the money to pay the still-franchise-tagged Muhammad Wilkerson? Do they wait and see if Lynch drops to No. 20? Does a team jump up right before they go on the clock?

Do the Denver Broncos, who have more draft assets than they have available salary cap in the long term, decide to sell a draft pick for Lynch on a rookie contract? The third overall pick in this draft will be making less than Chase Daniel, who is the second-string quarterback in Philadelphia right now and very well might be the third-string quarterback on opening day.

According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, Denver has held up the trade for Kaepernick due to his current contract. If they're trying to save money at the position, allowing for their defense to drive them to the Super Bowl, a passer on a rookie contract has tremendous value, and Lynch is the last option on the board as a Week 1 starter.

The ripple effects of where Lynch does and doesn't go will be felt all over the NFL. It's football's equivalent of musical chairs, but he's the last seat between a half-dozen or so franchises.

The Receiver Run

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This isn't the 2014 draft class in terms of wide receivers. There isn't a plethora of wideouts like Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. who are worthy of top-10 consideration. For the most part, the top receiver in the class for the past two seasons has been Laquon Treadwell of Mississippi, who Play the Draft currently ranks as the 12th overall prospect.

Behind him are Josh Doctson of TCU, Corey Coleman of Baylor and Will Fuller of Notre Dame, who are all ranked between the 21st and 36th slot on the draft stock site. When you look at the draft order, the group of four have a great chance of coming off of the board back-to-back-to-back with the 22nd, 23rd and 24th overall picks, owned by the Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals, respectively.

Houston's entire offense ran through its one receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, last season, despite going through four different starting quarterbacks. Minnesota's only starting-caliber receiver is a second-year Day 3 selection. The top two free-agent receivers this past offseason were signed off of Cincinnati's roster.

It's fairly evident you need to move ahead of that slate of teams if you want to nab a first-round pass-catcher in this draft. The competition of the stretch may force players up the board. A player like Fuller may go from a fringe first-round choice to a top-20 selection due to the supply of receivers and the demand for the position in the later end of the round.

Do not be shocked if several trades are made to move up for wideouts on Day 1, allowing prospects who were projected higher in mock drafts to slide to playoff teams at the end of the first round. It's possible that a defensive tackle like Sheldon Rankins of Louisville or a pass-rusher like Shaq Lawson of Clemson could land with a contender because of an early run on receivers.

DeForest Buckner, DL, Oregon

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DeForest Buckner is one of the better players in the draft class, but he needs the right home. At Oregon, the Ducks ran a very conservative 3-4 scheme. They were one of the few teams in college football to line up with two 5-technique defensive ends and a nose guard consistently, and it's one reason why they're able to recruit jumbo defensive linemen like the 6'7", 291-pound Buckner and the 6'7", 292-pound Arik Armstead, who was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in the first round in 2015.

Bucker isn't dynamic enough of a pass-rusher to be considered a 4-3 defensive end. He may be an edge-setter, but you can find run defenders at edge positions as free agents. Courtney Upshaw was a run-first edge defender coming out of Alabama, and he was a second-round pick. Upshaw was just signed on a $1 million, one-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons as a 26-year-old.

Taking Buckner as a 4-3 end high in the draft would be going against how the NFL values players, and investing more in the ground game at a pass-rushing position when the league is leaning more toward the passing game every year seems like a mistake. Buckner can hold up as a 3-technique defensive tackle on passing downs and one-on-one situations, but his 6'7" frame makes him a liability against double-teams, even on the opening chips of inside zone runs.

He's a true 5-technique in a league that doesn't have many defensive coordinators who want to field 5-techniques for three downs. The San Diego Chargers need 5-technique help, but they have their choice, at least on paper, of any non-quarterback in the draft. If Buckner doesn't get selected with the third overall pick, he may slip to the San Francisco 49ers, the next 3-4 team in the draft order.

According to Andy Benoit of the MMQB, the Baltimore Ravens, who pick sixth overall, are shifting to a 4-3 defense this season. The 49ers own the seventh overall pick in the draft, and right behind them are the Cleveland Browns, who will run a hybrid 3-4 defense under Ray Horton. If San Diego passes up on Buckner, those are the only other two slots that make sense for him to land as a 5-technique in the top 10.

The range of Buckner's draft position, from the first positional player off of the board to falling out of the top 10 if San Francisco or Cleveland take Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch and just one other player, for example, means that his draft day could be a wild card, sending shock waves throughout the rest of the draft. Last year, Leonard Williams was the best 5-technique prospect in the class, ranked by several big names in the draft media as the best player in the talent pool. He wasn't taken until the sixth overall pick because of how those players fit in NFL defenses in 2016.