Playing Fact or Fiction with MLB's Most Shocking Records After Week 3
Last week, we said it was a fact that Minnesota wasn't as bad as its 0-9 record indicated. Lo and behold, the Twins have won five of their last seven games. While Baltimore has maintained its hold on first place in the American League East, the Orioles have gone 3-2 over their last five, which is more in line with expectations.
Of course, not all of the calls we made in last week's edition of Fact or Fiction were accurate—Houston continues to flounder, while the White Sox have slowed down just a bit. Having already touched on those clubs, we'll turn our eyes to some other shocking starts that teams have gotten off to around the game.
Our goal here remains the same: Are these teams truly as good—or as bad—as their early-season records indicate?
Let's take a look.
Fact: Chicago Cubs (12-4)
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Is anyone really surprised—or in disbelief—over Chicago's torrid start to the regular season?
After all, the Cubs won 97 games a season ago—a total that would have put them in first place in any other division besides the National League Central—and added Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist to the mix as free agents.
Sure, losing Kyle Schwarber for the season with a busted knee hurts, but the Cubs have such remarkable depth that, in the scheme of things, it really doesn't matter. Schwarber goes down, postseason sensation Jorge Soler comes in, and all is right in left at Wrigley Field.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a weakness on this team.
Offensively, the Cubs lead baseball in runs scored (97) and, per ESPN, run differential, having outscored their competition by a ridiculous 60 runs, nearly 30 runs more than St. Louis, which has the game's second-highest run differential.
The rotation has been stellar, leading baseball in ERA (2.19) and quality starts (14), while even advanced metrics are in love with the team's defense.
While there's plenty of baseball left to play, it's hard to envision a scenario in which the Cubs don't crack the 100-win plateau. Really, the only question is how far above that mark they'll finish.
Fiction: Washington Nationals (11-4)
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Washington is off to its best start since 2012, when the Nationals won a franchise-record 98 games and clinched their first NL East crown. But you'd have to be collecting a paycheck from the team to not be skeptical about those results.
After all, spending the better part of a month playing only Atlanta, Miami and Philadelphia is a great way for a team to pad its record. It's not the Nationals' fault that MLB's schedule-makers gifted them such an easy schedule to start the season, and they're beating the teams most think they should.
But that doesn't mean we should believe this is a team that's going to finish the season winning 70 percent of its games, just as we shouldn't believe that Daniel Murphy is going to hit .400 or that Gio Gonzalez and Joe Ross will be among the league leaders in ERA.
None of this is to say that the Nationals aren't a good team—they are. But it's impossible to believe that they're this good until they have the same type of success against more formidable opponents.
Fact: Texas Rangers (10-6)
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Despite getting little to no production out of Ian Desmond, Prince Fielder, Rougned Odor and the currently injured Shin-Soo Choo, Texas finds itself atop the AL West standings.
Only four teams in the American League are getting on base more frequently than the Rangers, who trail only Baltimore when it comes to producing with runners in scoring position.
Top prospect Nomar Mazara not only looks like he belongs in the everyday lineup, but he has to be considered the early favorite for American League Rookie of the Year. While the Rangers will have a glut of outfielders once Choo and Josh Hamilton are cleared for action, that's not a bad problem to have.
Cole Hamels, Derek Holland and A.J. Griffin have solidified the front half of the team's rotation and will soon be joined by former ace Yu Darvish, who could be back on the mound for the Rangers in late May, according to a report from MLB.com's John Henry.
While it's wise to temper expectations for Darvish upon his return, as the Dallas Morning News' Evan Grant suggests, his return is only going to make the Rangers pitching staff stronger, sending one current starter (Martin Perez?) to the bullpen.
Things are starting to look up in Texas, which is bad news for the rest of the AL West.
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Fiction: New York Yankees (5-9)
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The New York Yankees aren't going to finish the season having lost twice as many games as they've won—the roster is simply too talented for that to happen. And eventually, the team is going to start hitting with runners in scoring position, emerging from its current 2-for-50 funk.
“You can go through these things a couple times during the year, and when you’re going through them, they’re extremely frustrating,” manager Joe Girardi told the Wall Street Journal's Jared Diamond.
That lack of clutch hitting, and not the Yankees' oft-maligned rotation, is behind the team's worst start since 2005. That team rebounded to win 95 games and the AL East crown, and it's not outrageous to think the Bronx Bombers could once again win 60 percent of their remaining games, as they did then.
That said, this year's roster seems far more flawed than the one the Yankees boasted a decade ago, which featured a 22-year-old Robinson Cano and a trio of in-their-prime stars in Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui and Alex Rodriguez.
Are the Yankees better than their current record indicates? Absolutely. But that hardly guarantees another division crown, much less a spot in the postseason. With the organization focused on getting younger, more athletic and less expensive, "better" might not be anything more than a .500 club.
Fiction: San Francisco Giants (7-10)
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As the San Francisco Chronicle's Ann Killion writes, it's too early for panic in the streets of San Francisco.
"Seventeen games are just a blip and can’t foretell anything. Last year’s Giants started 7-10. In 2014, 2013, 2011 and 2010, the Giants started 10-7. In 2012, they were 9-8. Seventeen games are not enough to establish a pattern."
Only one member of the everyday lineup, Angel Pagan (.328), is hitting above .265. Only two, Pagan (.863) and Brandon Belt (.807), have an OPS above .800.
“We need somebody to inject some life in us and give us the big hit,” manager Bruce Bochy told Killion after the team's most recent loss, a 6-2 defeat at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks. That was San Francisco's eighth loss in its past 10 games, all coming against division rivals.
Eventually, the likes of Brandon Crawford, Matt Duffy, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey and Denard Span are going to hit, and that will go a long way toward solving what ails the Giants. With nine of their next 12 games against Colorado, Miami and San Diego, there's reason for optimism.
Besides, it's an even year, and we know those tend to culminate with a victory parade down Market Street. While the NL West is far more competitive than it's been in the past, it's far too early to count the Giants out of the race—or to believe that they can't turn things around rather quickly.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through April 21.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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