Updated Predictions for Clay-Court Season After the Monte Carlo Masters
If men’s tennis lacked parity in lieu of Novak Djokovic’s unrivaled dominance, Monte Carlo proved how quickly things can change.
Bounced in his first match, the world No. 1’s exit opened the door. And who gladly waltzed through? None other than much-maligned former champion Rafael Nadal.
Picking up one spectacular win after another, Nadal finally achieved the type of tournament victory he’s been seeking for so long. Could the balance of power (at least on this surface) be shifting back in his direction?
We’ll know soon enough in the coming weeks.
Not all were as fortunate as Nadal. Other stars like Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka couldn’t find a spark when they most needed it, and they face even more scrutiny about their form.
So with the French Open approaching, it’s time to reassess expectations for these and other top contenders based on how they performed in Monte Carlo and their outlook for the rest of the clay-court season.
Dominic Thiem Remains a Wild Card
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Fast-rising Dominic Thiem received a lesson in the art of clay-court tennis from Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo.
The Spaniard's superior return game led him to victory in their blockbuster fourth-round match. Thiem had plenty of chances to seize control, but he squandered 15 of the 17 break points he generated. The fact Thiem was able to continually get into Nadal's service games so easily is a positive he can take away from an otherwise disappointing result.
In the midst of a breakout season, 22-year-old Thiem isn't immune to growing pains. He'll hit the Top 10 sooner rather than later, perhaps even this summer. He's shown so many flashes of brilliance in the past few months, something he can build on the rest of this clay-court season.
Phenomenally quick with great movement, Thiem is a versatile defender. Like Stan Wawrinka, he has a powerful forehand and one-handed backhand that grow more effective when he has extra time to set them up. It's no wonder he's won four titles on this surface in the last two years.
That set of skills and resume make Thiem a trendy pick to be a dark horse at the French Open.
Gael Monfils Can Play the Role of Spoiler
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Is there a more mercurial guy on the tour than Gael Monfils?
Blessed with extraordinary talent and athleticism, he's struggled to consistently utilize those gifts throughout his career. Make no mistake: When he's on, Monfils can beat anyone. Yet his biggest adversary has always been himself.
At age 29, maybe things are beginning to click for him. Don't call it a full-fledged renaissance, but Monfils is building a steady 2016 season. With his surprising run to the Monte Carlo final, he's up to No. 14 in the rankings and owns a 20-6 record. Of the six events Monfils has played, he's reached at least the quarterfinals in five of them, including two finals.
Taking advantage of a generous draw, the Frenchman rolled through his first four matches in Monte Carlo without breaking much of a sweat. In the semifinals, he'd meet a higher-quality opponent in countryman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. That showdown ended in a rout for Monfils.
Advancing to only his third Masters final (and first on clay), he ran into a hungry Rafael Nadal. For over two scintillating hours, they traded brilliance, putting together some of the best tennis witnessed in 2016. Nadal prevailed thanks to a dominant third set, but he was forced to work extremely hard for the win.
Was that run a flash in the pan or a sign of things to come from Monfils? Either way, he demonstrated why he'll be a tough opponent for anyone to face in the coming weeks.
Stan Wawrinka Will Vacate His Crown at the French Open
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Stan Wawrinka's bid for a title defense at the French Open may prove a short one based off his current level.
Shellacked by Rafael Nadal in the Monte Carlo quarterfinals, the fourth-ranked Swiss is mired in a spring slump. Since winning Dubai in February, Wawrinka is 4-3, with an opening-round loss in Miami to Andrey Kuznetsov the low point. Unfocused and sloppy play have doomed him, which Nadal gladly used to his advantage.
“I really need to work on two or three things that I want to improve on," Wawrinka told the ATP World Tour website after the loss. "I have two weeks, or a bit more, before I go to Madrid. I will try to prepare well during that period.”
Wawrinka doesn't sound panicked, but he can't rely on just flipping a switch once he gets to Paris. He needs to put the pieces back together in Madrid and Rome to build some momentum. Poor showings there may vault Nadal past him in the rankings, which could be devastating for his draw.
He showed us last year what a deadly force he can be on clay. Channeling that magic again won't be so easy this time.
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Andy Murray Will Not Defend His Title in Madrid
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We witnessed the ascension of Andy Murray on clay in 2015. Now comes the hard part: backing up those results.
The Scot picked up his first titles on dirt in Munich and Madrid last year, easily defeating Rafael Nadal in the latter tournament. Going into the French Open semifinals, Murray sported a perfect 17-0 clay record. Were it not for a clutch fifth set from Novak Djokovic in their match, he would've had a shot at the Roland Garros crown.
Murray may not be capable of replicating that stretch in 2016. He's been up-and-down since the Australian Open, letting a one-set lead slip away against Nadal in last week's Monte Carlo semifinals. He had the match in hand before completely unraveling.
Jawing with himself and the chair umpire, a frazzled Murray wasted a prime opportunity. And in doing so, he may have awoken a sleeping giant in Nadal.
The heat will only turn up with all those points to defend in Madrid. Lately, overcoming pressure hasn't exactly been his forte. His own game a source of frustration, as well as a resurgent Nadal and (potentially) Roger Federer to contend with, there will be too many obstacles to overcome for Murray in the Spanish capital.
Roger Federer Won't Be Hindered by Recent Knee Surgery
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We didn't really know what to expect from Roger Federer upon his return from knee surgery.
It turns out, there wasn't much to worry about at all.
Between his exit from the Australian Open and the start of the Monte Carlo Masters, Federer sat out over two months to let his torn meniscus heal (and deal with sudden illness in Miami). At age 34 and going under the knife for the first time, Federer surely had uncertainties about how quickly he'd be able to get back in top form.
Based on his first two matches—straight-set wins over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Roberto Bautista Agut—rust wasn't a factor. Federer moved crisply along the baseline and stayed on the offensive. Appearing fit and strong, he assuaged doubts about his health.
A few points away from making the semifinal, Federer succumbed to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in a tight three-set battle. But even in defeat, he passed a big physical test and showed his body is ready for the grind again.
Where he plays next before the French Open is unclear. Yet one thing is certain: Federer is recovering well from his injury.
Rafael Nadal Is Poised for a Deep Run in Paris
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That turn-back-the-clock elixir Nadal’s been searching for? He may have found it on the red dirt in Monte Carlo.
Storming to his record-equalling ninth title at the tournament, Nadal navigated through a daunting draw that included Top 15 players Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray and Gael Monfils. With each victory, you could see the confidence brewing within him.
Nadal played his best stretch of tennis since winning the 2014 French Open, taking home his first Masters Series title in over two years. More importantly, he did so on clay—the surface he once ruled without opposition but had betrayed him in the last year. This type of result is one that could eventually steer him back on the path toward greater glory.
He showed glimpses of the old "King of Clay," hitting his forehand with more depth and consistency than we've seen in some time and playing tremendous defense as he refused to let winners go by him. Even when he encountered adversity against Murray and Monfils, Nadal's resolve grew in those situations. No doubt that did wonders for his psyche.
Revitalized, the Spaniard looks poised to seriously challenge for the French Open crown once again.
Novak Djokovic Remains the Man to Beat
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He’s human after all.
Just when we started to wonder if Novak Djokovic is actually the Terminator sent to Earth for tennis destruction, he found himself at the wrong end of an opening-round defeat to 55th-ranked Jiri Vesely in Monte Carlo. Even the best have off days.
Uncharacteristically flat and lacking his usual zest, Djokovic vacated the crown as his clay-court season careened to an inauspicious start.
“It's been a tough four or five months,” Djokovic told ATP World Tour website after the loss. “It's going to be rest. Complete rest. I'm really looking forward to that.”
By virtue of making the final in almost every tournament he plays, it’s not shocking all that mileage would eventually catch up to him. He’s already played 30 matches this year, winning titles at four events. At least now he can catch his breath for the first time in months.
Will that unexpected loss prove a bad omen for his voyage to claim a first French Open title?
Not so fast. The reality is Djokovic still enters Paris the overwhelming frontrunner, and one result doesn’t alter his forecast much. If anything, his laser-like focus will be amplified after that stumble.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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