2016 NFL Mock Draft: Bold Predictions for Most Overrated Prospects

Determining if prospects are overrated before the NFL draft is always a little bizarre. After all, it's essentially the practice of identifying whether certain players have been propped up by hype and buzz, something the players themselves have virtually no control over.

So in essence, an "overrated player" is probably one who has been overrated by the media. In NFL draft season, where misinformation is king, it's hard to know how teams feel about individual prospects.

So alongside my latest mock, I'll look to identify a few players who have been considered first-round talents along the way in mock drafts and projections—and perhaps even by scouts and teams—but probably shouldn't be selected that high in the draft. 

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Los Angeles Rams	Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
2	Cleveland Browns	Jared Goff, QB, California
3	San Diego Chargers	Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
4	Dallas Cowboys	Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
6	Baltimore Ravens	Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
7	San Francisco 49ers	Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
8	Philadelphia Eagles (from MIA)	Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
10	New York Giants	Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
11	Chicago Bears	Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
12	New Orleans Saints	Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
13	Miami Dolphins (from PHI)	Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
14	Oakland Raiders	Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
15	Tennessee Titans	Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
16	Detroit Lions	Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
17	Atlanta Falcons	Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
18	Indianapolis Colts	Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
19	Buffalo Bills	Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
20	New York Jets	Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
21	Washington	A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
22	Houston Texans	Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
23	Minnesota Vikings	Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	William Jackson III, CB, Houston
26	Seattle Seahawks	Robert Nkemdiche, DT/DE, Ole Miss
27	Green Bay Packers	Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
29	Arizona Cardinals	Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
30	Carolina Panthers	Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
31	Denver Broncos	Cody Whitehair, G/T, Kansas State

A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

A'Shawn Robinson should have a long and productive career. But will he be the sort of talent who warrants a first-round pick?

Chad Reuter of NFL.com doesn't think so:

"

He plays too upright, which will make life difficult for him when he meets veteran NFL offensive linemen with experience staying low and playing with leverage. Will he be a strong rotational player who can eat up space and challenge linemen? Yes. Will he be the sort of difference-maker (especially rushing the pass) expected by teams and fans if picked in the top 15 overall? Not unless he plays lower and has his motor running hot on every play.

"

His inability to rush the passer successfully is what hurts him as a prospect. What helps him? He's a beast against the run and will fit in nicely as a 3-4 defensive end. His versatility is also a plus.

But for a player projected as high as the top 15 of this year's draft, a lack of explosion is a major flaw. Obviously, I still believe he'll be a high pick—teams that want a plug-and-play upgrade to the defensive line will be intrigued—but the fact that he'll likely only be an early-downs player means he'd slip down the board in a value-over-need draft.

Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State

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Darron Lee did make plays at Ohio State. The concern is where he made those plays, as Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus noted:

"

His athletic traits are off the charts, with a 4.47 40-yard dash at the combine and an 11-1 broad jump. The scary part about Lee is that he almost never played as a true linebacker and thus lacked instincts when forced to play in the box. 492 of his 879 snaps came in the slot out wide of the tackles. Even when he was asked to make plays in space, he frequently took bad angles and overran plays.

"

Ah, but you can't teach athleticism, and you can teach players to adjust to a new role. At least to a point. That's the mentality teams enamored by Lee's athleticism at the linebacker position will have come the draft.

His college teammate, Ohio State running back and likely top-10 pick Ezekiel Elliott, is a big fan, as he told James Walker of ESPN.com:

"

Darron, we are roommates in college. So I kind of saw his evolution as a football player from a high-school quarterback to a [good] linebacker that nobody really wants to [face]. He's a freak athlete, and he plays with such an intensity. He's a great guy to have on your team. He's one of those guys that you kind of don't want to play against.

"

And, of course, Lee very well could adjust to a more traditional role as a linebacker in the NFL. If he does, it's exciting to imagine how good he might be. How good he is right now in that role is why he's so risky as a first-round pick. But his potential is why he'll still likely be one.

Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

I like Will Fuller. I think he has the potential to be one of the most exciting players to watch in the NFL out of this draft class. But I also question whether he's worth a first-round pick.

For starters, Fuller isn't a terribly well-rounded receiver. He's a dangerous deep threat, no doubt, but there isn't a ton to his game beyond that facet. He's not the biggest guy, measuring at 6'0" and 186 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine, so there are worries he'll have issues getting off the line of scrimmage. 

And he has had issues with drops, the biggest knock against him of all. According to Steve Palazzolo of ESPN.com, "Fuller dropped 13.9 percent of passes in 2015 and 12.6 percent in 2014, good for 89th and 82nd in the nation, respectively."

But again, that speed!

Fuller will likely be a first-round pick because of that speed and because this isn't a great wide receiver draft. So Fuller—who probably has second-day talent—will likely be off the board in the first round.

Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State

Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images

According to Renner, Decker was "the 79th-most efficient pass-protecting tackle in college football last year." 

Palazzolo added, "Decker's pass-protection grade ranks only 37th among draft-eligible tackles, a year removed from ranking 33rd in the same group."

So right off the bat, Decker likely translates to a right tackle in the NFL, which hurts his draft stock. But right tackles need to protect the quarterback, too, and having such a glaring weakness in the passing game in the modern NFL should hurt his stock.

But he's a beast in the run game and is likely a day-one starter, so teams will overlook his weaknesses at such an important position. It's hard to imagine Decker sliding out of the first round, even if his low ceiling suggests he probably is being overrated as a first-round talent.

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