Winners and Losers of the 2016 Monte Carlo Masters
Rafael Nadal got in a time machine, stepped out into the 2016 Monte Carlo Masters and left with his ninth championship, something many fans thought would be inevitable in the early days of April 2013.
The amazing thing was that world No. 1 Novak Djokovic was nowhere in sight, which had opened up the rest of the draw to the other top stars. In the end, Nadal would not be denied, and there were a couple of strained replies from Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray when their chances to defeat the Spaniard were slipping noisily into the Mediterranean Sea.
Meanwhile, young players had their chance to step up and build on their progress at Indian Wells and Miami. Find out if they succeeded.
All of this and more in historic and glitzy Monte Carlo, the first huge clay-court tournament of the year, where the road to the French Open truly begins.
Loser: Novak Djokovic
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It's bizarre creating a "loser" slide for Djokovic, but not even Novak Djokovic is perfect.
For the first time since Grigor Dimitrov bounced the Serb in the 2013 Madrid Masters, Djokovic is out in his first match at a Masters 1000 venue. He lost to No. 55 Jiri Vesely in three sets, playing a very conservative match that looked more like a practice session instead of fending off an opponent who stepped up for his career-best match.
While Djokovic took his early exit, he had to watch his top rivals all make deep runs to claim a coveted title without having to go through him.
In the long run, it’s no big deal for Djokovic to have a clunker match even if he usually finds a way to win when he is not playing his best. But it could be a wake-up call or warning for the Serb when he plays the French Open.
If Djokovic becomes too casual with his rope-a-dope strategy—bending enough to pressure his opponents to self-destruct—could someone else come away with an upset like Vesely? Three of five sets and seven matches favors the very best player, but one bad day is enough to unseat anyone.
Even Djokovic fans will naturally feel anxiety if he runs into a hot opponent at Roland Garros. Unless he finally does win his Holy Grail, there’s still a long road ahead.
Winner: Roger Federer
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A couple wins for Roger Federer was an even bigger winner for tennis. The Swiss Maestro, out of action since the Australian Open because of knee surgery, turned in two fine performances to reach the quarterfinals.
Best of all, Federer’s footwork and quickness looked good, and it seems he will not have any ill effects from the surgery and rehabilitation. Although he lost a three-setter to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Federer was content to get in some work for a more cautious return to the top.
“It was a good match,” Federer said, per McCarton Ackerman of the ATP World Tour. "It was nice to play an intense match. I'm happy [with] how the body reacted. So many good things this week. It's all positive for me.”
But Federer and his fans are not out of the woods yet. Often after a major injury or surgery the body can feel fine coming back in the short term, but it still needs to get through initial soreness and stress to build strength. He might need extended rest to ensure that his healing is strong and he's ready for competition with no doubts.
“I definitely won’t play the next couple of weeks,” Federer said, per Kevin Mitchell of the Guardian. “And Madrid? I’ll decide probably 10 days from now. Rome? I’ll decide probably in 15 days from now.”
Federer is wise to take a step back and monitor his recovery on a day-to-day basis. Tennis fans would love to see more of his A-level tennis in the months ahead.
Loser: Dominic Thiem
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There’s certainly no shame in losing to Rafael Nadal on clay, but Dominic Thiem has to be shaking his head at missed opportunities. He created 16 break-point opportunities in the first set but only converted one.
He lost a 16-minute game at 4-4. Eventually he lost the first set, 7-5.
Thiem got his early break in the second set, but he fell flat down the stretch while Nadal muscled out five of the last six games to close out the match.
In many ways, Thiem dominated the match with his pace and pressure. He had Nadal scrambling and fighting for save after save. He just couldn’t close.
The concern is that Thiem might be feeling nerves. He’s been one of the top players in the ATP in converting break points, according to ATP World Tour’s Infosys (as of March 24) that showed Thiem converting on 39 percent of his breakpoints in 2016, which is better than Novak Djokovic (33 percent) and Andy Murray (35 percent).
But Thiem only converted one of 15 break points in a huge match against Djokovic at the Miami Masters, and now he’s followed that up with 2-of-17 effort against another tennis champion in Nadal.
If Thiem is not dealing with a mental block, then he will need to change his approach. More patience and opportunistic striking would help, even with credit due to the clutch play of the Serb and Spaniard.
Thiem needs to perform better at Masters 1000 tournaments if he is to become a top-10 stalwart. Certainly he will need to solve a few things if he is to contend for the French Open. He can contend with his talent, but he doesn’t want to make a habit of blowing break points.
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Winner: Gael Monfils
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Props to Gael Monfils. The veteran Frenchman will be moving up to No. 14 in the ATP Rankings after sweeping every set to the final and giving Rafael Nadal all he could handle heading to the third set. Then he labored with apparent physical issues, and the 6-0 score is not indicative of the quality tennis he played this week until the very end.
Always an exciting and talented hitter, Monfils has often been inconsistent, living too close to the flair for the dramatic. There’s never a difficult shot he does not want to create, and this past week he almost pulled off his career highlight.
Once upon a time, Monfils was a talented player with the kind of potential to contend for major titles. From 2008-11, he reached the French Open semifinals, two Paris Masters finals and his career-best No. 7 ranking on July 4, 2011, the first week that Novak Djokovic was ranked No. 1.
If Monfils can stay healthy, rein in his tendencies to hit wild shots and grind away with his athleticism, he could get back to the top 10 during the clay-court swing.
Losers: Lost and Next Generations
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Back to reality for tennis’ Lost and Next Generations of tennis stars. After their best collective efforts at the Miami Masters, it’s time for tennis bingo when it comes to calling out their successes and failures.
Lost Generation leaders David Goffin, Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic all bounced down on the slow clay. Next Generation hopefuls like Borna Coric, Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem slid out by mid-tournament. Kei Nishikori and Nick Kyrgios did not play.
By the quarterfinals where the veterans dominated, Raonic was the lone wolf, but he was gone soon after the coin toss, 6-2, 6-0.
The jury might be tempted to throw out the Lost Generation altogether unless they settle for sporadic results and occasional highlights.
But it’s all just beginning for the youngest players who will need a lot of patience from followers, and plenty of coffee and sugar for the tennis gods while they mull over their fates.
Winners: Veteran Stars
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Tennis fans do pay more attention when Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka are contending with Novak Djokovic. For all of the talks about young stars and the future of tennis, the legends still reign supreme.
When the Big Three, Murray and Wawrinka have strong performances, there are more fan comments on articles, more tweets and greater ranges of opinions from the nostalgic past to the uncertain future.
This week, Federer got to the quarterfinals after more than two months' absence. Wawrinka lost to Nadal in the quarterfinals, Murray lost to Nadal in the semifinals and the Spaniard had a splash of renewed glory when he held up Monte Carlo’s classy trophy.
If these five continue to war during the clay-court swing, the action will be more familiar and captivating for longtime tennis fans.
For those clamoring for new tennis blood, be patient but understand that the veterans are not going to walk away. It’s increasingly likely that Father Time alone will have to drag them away from the ATP.
Loser: Milos Raonic
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Milos Raonic has definitely improved his footwork and strategy, and he continues to be the most dangerous player on the ATP tour behind his massive serve.
But once again, he got to a big match, and after a song and a dance he was given the boot. His 6-2, 6-0 thrashing from Andy Murray was the identical score that he coughed up in the Indian Wells final against Novak Djokovic.
Is Raonic too injury-prone? He was hampered in the Australian Open semifinals against Murray, hurt in the Indian Wells final and laboring again at Monte Carlo. Bleacher Report’s Joe Kennard noted that Raonic’s future could be unfulfilled if he cannot get healthy and build his game.
Of course Raonic does have more difficulties when he has to chase more balls against great defensive or return stars like Murray, Rafael Nadal, Djokovic and Kei Nishikori. That's not a coincidence, and anyone who loses is going to feel more severity with his injuries.
Winner: Rafael Nadal
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Maybe Rafael Nadal needs yellow-orange shades of shirts and dull light blue shorts when he plays the Monte Carlo Masters. The Spaniard last won this title in 2012 with a similar combination of attire, and if 2012 is an omen for 2016, he could be smiling all the way to the French Open title.
OK, let’s stop with that last thought. We will get back to that in two days.
For now, the Spanish legend must be savoring his ninth title four years after he had dominated with eight straight titles. It’s a testament of how difficult things have become late in his career, but proof of his lingering talent. Nobody walks into this title, and Nadal did it by defeating Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray and a hot Gael Monfils. It’s his biggest win since the 2014 French Open, and he now owns nine career titles at both venues.
Before we look ahead to Nadal’s chances to continue his success in the clay-court swing, there were a few things to note about the way he battled this past week.
- His defensive tenacity was the best that it’s been in his recent drought, and it’s good enough to track down difficult shots and set up his forehand even if that footwork is not vintage 2008. Credit to his defensive stubbornness.
- Nadal’s forehand has been biting better at the baseline. He’s driving his opponents back a little more often and attacking their backhands with more frequency. It’s going to be the key for an aggressive attack more often near the baseline, something that Craig O’Shannessy analyzed in his Brain Game column.
- Nadal’s fight and snarl is urging him onward when his opponents become more emotional or inconsistent. When he stays the course with his mental confidence, he’s able to fight off some of the downs and outlast his competitors.
Nadal will need to be in top shape if he is to contend for Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. It’s likely too much of a workload to ask, and he might be better off in skipping Barcelona and getting bounced in Spain or Italy. But there’s too much at stake for his success in clay-court Europe, and he’s going to rev up the engine until it blows.
We’ll look at his French Open prospects in an upcoming article.
Losers: Meltdowns from Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray
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While Nadal was fighting through Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively, the tension was apparent when the Spaniard was pulling away.
Nadal served at 3-1 and 30-15 in the first set, and Wawrinka completely missed on a cross-court backhand that streamed a few feet beyond the corner. He hit his racket on the ground, inspected it and bent it across his knee like it was a cheap plastic toy (not exactly a ringing endorsement for anyone thinking about a Yonex racket).
Later, Wawrinka could be heard muttering about crowd noise and giving suspect efforts on some of Nadal’s shots.
A round later, Murray won the first set in his semifinal, but in the opening of the third set he took out his frustrations on the chair umpire Damien Dumusois, berating him for not monitoring Nadal’s time between points. (Nadal has long been notorious for taking extra time between service points, but it’s rarely been an issue for nearly two years when Nadal has not played well.) Murray, according to Nicolas Atkin of ESPN, said to Dumusois, "It's fascinating what you let some of these guys get away with."
After Nadal broke for a 4-1 lead, Murray tossed a tennis ball at Dumusois, who said to the melting Scot, “You have zero respect for me.” They traded a couple more barbs.
Granted, a chair umpire should refrain from engaging in a player’s rant, but Murray was busier battling Dumusois than Nadal, and that’s the real problem.
Wawrinka and Murray will have a clean slate the next time they play Nadal, but will they mentally check out with inferiority comments when adversity strikes?
Nadal’s focus was better, and Wawrinka and Murray will need improved composure to compete for bigger stakes. They don’t need Nadal to get in their heads anymore than their combined 9-32 records against Nadal.
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