
Deep RB Class in 2016 NFL Draft Loaded with Potential Difference-Makers
In recent years, the running back position has become somewhat devalued in the NFL draft. In both 2013 and 2014, not a single player at the position was selected in the draft's first round.
Last year was something of a different story. A pair of running backs (Georgia's Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin) went on Day 1. One lived up to his status as an early draft pick. The other? Not so much.
However, if the 2015 NFL draft put tailbacks back on the map, then the 2016 draft may remake it. Because whether it's first-round studs, second-day stars or Day 3 diamonds in the rough, this year's class at running back has something for everyone.
| 8 | 1 | E. Elliott | OSU | 6'0" | 225 | 1 |
| 38 | 2 | D. Henry | ALA | 6'3" | 247 | 1-2 |
| 61 | 3 | D. Booker | Utah | 5'11" | 219 | 2 |
| 63 | 4 | K. Dixon | LTU | 5'10" | 215 | 2 |
| 76 | 5 | J. Howard | IND | 6'0" | 230 | 2-3 |
| 83 | 6 | C.J. Prosise | ND | 6'0" | 220 | 2-3 |
| 91 | 7 | A. Collins | ARK | 5'10" | 217 | 3 |
| 104 | 8 | K. Drake | ALA | 6'1" | 210 | 3-4 |
| 116 | 9 | J. Williams | ARK | 5'11" | 220 | 3-4 |
| 120 | 10 | P. Perkins | UCLA | 5'10" | 208 | 3-4 |
It's a good year to have a need at the running back spot. Potential difference-makers abound.
There's a general consensus at the head of the class on two fronts. First, Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott is the top running back prospect in 2016. Second, Elliott isn't making it out of the draft's first day, and may not last past the top 10 picks.
It isn't hard to see why. The 6'0", 225-pounder looks like he was built from a kit. Elliott has everything NFL teams want in a workhorse. Speed. Elusiveness. Power. The ability to both catch the ball out of the backfield and help out in pass protection.
In fact, there's reason to believe that Elliott won't make it out of the top five, becoming the first back since Trent (giggle) Richardson in 2012 to be drafted that highly. For some time there have been rumblings connecting Elliott to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 4, and former NFL star Ike Taylor went so far as to say (via Chase Goodbread of NFL.com) that it's a fit that could lead all the way to Canton:
"If their offensive line can stay healthy for Dallas, he's going to be a Hall of Famer, if this guy can stay healthy. I was impressed (at the combine). One, for his size. Two, if you just roll the tape and see this guy, guys didn't want to hit him. Then when I saw him in person, I was like 'I don't really want to hit this guy either.' This guy is built for speed, he's built (low) to the ground. ... Dallas, running behind that big offensive line, it's going to be scary when gets to that second level.
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Elliott may be the top dog in 2016, but he isn't the only tailback that many draftniks think won't last past the end of Round 1.
That is, of course, if you consider Alabama's Derrick Henry a tailback.
The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner rode his 247-pound frame (as defenders rode it) to over 2,200 yards on a staggering 395 carries in 2015. If Elliott is a thoroughbred, then Henry's a plowhorse—a blunt instrument that pounds away at defenses until they crumble under the onslaught.
There are concerns about Henry's straight-line speed and the massive workload he carried for the Crimson Tide in 2015. But there are also plenty of scouts, including ESPN's Matt Bowen, who see first-round talent in the bruiser from 'Bama:
While we're on the subject of the defending national champions, here's a backfield bite to chew on: there are those who believe that Henry's backup at Alabama is a first-round talent.
That's what one NFL talent evaluator told Peter King of The MMQB about Kenyan Drake, touting the 6'1", 210-pounder's "great straight-line speed."
Drake's wheels aren't in question. He peeled off a 4.45-second 40-yard dash time at the combine and finished near the top of his position in several other drills. It's the shape of those wheels that's the worry after an injury-marred career in Tuscaloosa.
That scout may see Drake as a Day 1 talent, but it's far more likely he'll be a Day 2 pick. One of a fistful of such picks who have the talent to be significant contributors for their new teams.
Utah's Devontae Booker held a personal pro day earlier this week, and while the 5'11", 219-pounder wasn't able to do a whole lot thanks to February surgery for a torn meniscus, ESPN's Mike Reiss still talked up both Booker's ability to do it all in the pros and his potential as a Day 2 fit in New England:
"At 5-foot-10 3/4 and 219 pounds, he has some of the traits that the Patriots value -- football intelligence, pass-catching skills, good vision and balance, toughness -- and he's a willing blocker and a decisive and explosive rusher. He also has return experience. Overall, he plays faster than his timed speed.
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Kenneth Dixon has been lighting up college stat sheets for the past several seasons. Granted, he did so at Louisiana Tech, and with nearly 900 touches for his career, Dixon is another young back for which workload is a concern. But Alex Gelhar of NFL.com is just one of a number of pundits who believe Dixon is more than a capable of carrying his success over to the NFL:
"Watching Dixon move is a treat, as he possesses remarkably quick feet that he can use to juke defenders, accelerate through cuts, or keep his balance after contact. He's constantly able to reset his feet and reload them for cut after cut after cut in the open field, frequently leaving defenders grasping for air.
Dixon is an accomplished pass catcher out of the backfield and out of the slot as well. He has natural hands, and an innate ability to contort and adjust his body like a wide receiver.
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Fun fact: In 2015, one player in the FBS scored on both a run and a reception of at least 80 yards. That player was Kenneth Dixon.
But wait! There's even more bang for your Day 2 draft dollar!
Last year against the University of Michigan's top-five run defense, Jordan Howard of Indiana rumbled for an eye-popping 238 yards. In the six games in which the 6'0", 230-pound Howard had at least 20 carries for the Hoosiers, he averaged over 180 yards a contest.
Is that a lot? It seems like a lot.
As Wes Huber of Pro Football Focus wrote, there wasn't a better back in the country last year at picking up yardage after contact than Howard:
"Howard continues to be overlooked and finds himself as an afterthought of Day 2, or even later. Based upon his body of work, however, we have him at No. 59 overall, and one lucky team could end up with a steal by drafting him.
No running back in this draft class had a higher yards after contact per attempt average this season, at 3.69 yards per carry, and over the course of the last two seasons he caught passes at an 80 percent clip and provided a level of pass protection ranking at the top of the class (just five total pressures allowed in 178 pass-blocking snaps). Should his drafting team convince him to drop his force-first-contact approach, which has led to some injury issues for him, Howard could become a special player at the next level.
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Were it not for those injury concerns (Howard missed four games in 2015) we might well be talking about him as a first-rounder in his own right. Instead, he's one of the many potential values who should be available to NFL teams on April 29.
And we haven't even gotten to the draft's third and final day yet.
Ever since Alfred Morris went from unheralded sixth-round pick to 1,600-yard rusher in 2012, NFL clubs have been on the hunt for the next big steal at the position. And there's no shortage of potential candidates in 2016.
Georgia's Keith Marshall fell behind both Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb with the Bulldogs, and seemingly off the draft-day radar. That is, until the former 5-star recruit peeled off a 4.31-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
That run wasn't just the fastest among running backs in Indianapolis. It was the fastest by any player at the 2016 combine, and in addition to picking up a cool $50,000 from Adidas, Marshall told Eric Single of Sports Illustrated he hopes he sprinted right back onto some draft boards:
"I knew I was a guy who didn’t play all that much, so with the process, I felt like how I carry myself, I’m very good with football as far as learning the plays and understanding the game of football, and I felt like I would interview well and I knew I would perform well at the combine, pro day and workouts. So I felt like I was a guy that could help my draft stock, and I think I’m in the process of doing that.
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Marshall wasn't the only young running back who took full advantage of the opportunity to boost his draft stock at the combine. As a matter of fact, in the opinion of Alex Marvez of Fox Sports, there may not have been a back who did a better job of jostling for position in Indy than Cal's Daniel Lasco:
"Cal's Daniel Lasco enjoyed one of the best all-around workouts of the 300-plus participants involved. Where he wowed the most was with a broad jump of 11'3" to set a combine record at that drill for his position.
Lasco's 41.5-inch vertical jump led the field of 29 running backs and was tied for third-best all-time for the position. He was fleet of foot with a 4.46-second time in the 40-yard dash and the second-best mark (11.31 seconds) in the 60-yard shuttle. Lasco showcased his strength as well with 23 bench-press reps of 225 pounds.
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Lasco racked up over 1,100 rushing yards for the Golden Bears two years ago before suffering through an injury-plagued senior season, and he told Marvez he was fully aware there was work to be done at the combine.
"I was injured quite a bit last season. It's football. It happens," Lasco said. "Unfortunately, it hurt me a lot. Now I 'm just trying to build my way back up."
Mission accomplished.
There are even young running backs who aren't a sure bet to be drafted at all who more than have the ability to be the next Thomas Rawls-style Cinderella story.
New Mexico's Jhurell Pressley wasn't invited to Indy despite a wildly productive career for the Lobos, but as Gil Brandt of NFL.com relayed, the two teams who did bother to show up at New Mexico's pro day were treated to a show:
"Only two NFL representatives (Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers) showed up for New Mexico's pro day on March 10, but Pressley (5'10", 206) did more than enough to get noticed. He showed outstanding speed (his 40 time would have been the second-best mark at the combine among RBs), quickness and strength. I wouldn't be surprised if some team grabbed him in the sixth round.
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Like a number of the young running backs on this list, Houston's Kenneth Farrow wasn't able to duplicate a 1,000-yard effort from two seasons ago. And just like Pressley, Farrow wasn't invited to the combine.
However, as Huber reports, in addition to putting up three-cone drill and short shuttle numbers at Houston's pro day that would have ranked in the top five among backs in Indy, Farrow also received high grades from PFF the past two years:
"Farrow didn’t put up the same kind of numbers in 2015 that he did two years ago, when he earned PFF’s fifth-best grade among running backs, but he still enters the 2016 draft with the position’s fourth-highest overall and seventh-highest rushing and receiving grades over the last two years. He also showcased next-level blocking chops, allowing just 10 QB pressures, and secured every catchable target over the last two seasons.
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Now, are all of these young running backs guaranteed to plow, juke and/or hurdle their way to success at the professional level? No. From Elliott to Farrow and all points in between, we need look no further than a 2012 NFL draft that brought us both Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris to see there are no guarantees in the NFL.
But that doesn't take away from the allure of this year's bumper backfield crop—a crop that features players with the potential to be bell cow backs at the NFL level whether a team looks for running backs in Round 1, Round 3 or Round 5.
Now it's simply a matter of picking the right one.
And in some respects, having so many intriguing options to choose from may actually make that job harder.
Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPSharks.
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