2016 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for 1st Round's Top Prospects

"Uncertainty" is a word that no NFL team wants to hear when it comes to a draft prospect, especially one being considered in the first round.

The ideal scenario is that each player taken is a perfect citizen who will represent the team and league well on and off the field, as well as turn into a star who will lead the franchise to at least one championship.

Yet those things rarely happen because draft prospects are human beings with flaws, to say nothing of the difficulty that comes with playing in the NFL. This year's crop of incoming players looks like a strong group overall, but there are key names with first-round potential who have a lot to prove in at least one key area.

Here is a look at the latest mock two weeks before this year's draft that starts on April 28, followed by top players who have to show their skills will work in the NFL.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tennessee Titans	Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi
2	Cleveland Browns	Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
3	San Diego Chargers	DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
4	Dallas Cowboys	Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State
6	Baltimore Ravens	Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
7	San Francisco 49ers	Jared Goff, QB, California
8	Philadelphia Eagles (Acquired from Miami)	Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
10	New York Giants	Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
11	Chicago Bears	Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
12	New Orleans Saints	Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
13	Miami Dolphins (Acquired from Philadelphia)	Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
14	Oakland Raiders	Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
15	Los Angeles Rams	Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi
16	Detroit Lions	Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
17	Atlanta Falcons	Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
18	Indianapolis Colts	Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
19	Buffalo Bills	Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
20	New York Jets	Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor
21	Washington	Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
22	Houston Texans	Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
23	Minnesota Vikings	Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
26	Seattle Seahawks	A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
27	Green Bay Packers	Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State
29	Arizona Cardinals	Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
30	Carolina Panthers	Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
31	Denver Broncos	Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

The focus of every draft is going to be on the quarterbacks, for better or worse. North Dakota State's Carson Wentz and California's Jared Goff are in a battle to be the first QB off the board, though their market doesn't start until No. 2 with the Cleveland Browns unless the Tennessee Titans find an offer to move off the first pick.

Wentz is the hot name among quarterbacks because he doesn't have the burden of knowledge. Everyone knows for the most part what a player like Goff, Michigan State's Connor Cook or Penn State's Christian Hackenberg can and can't do because they were on national television every week.

North Dakota State, even though it is an FBS power, is not a program that's going to garner a lot of national attention. Wentz did not face the kinds of defenses Goff, Cook and Hackenberg did each week.

The one game Wentz played against a Power Five conference team was in 2014, when the Bison took on Iowa State. He was pedestrian in the game, going 18-of-28 for 204 yards. North Dakota State did win 34-14 thanks to a rushing attack that racked up 302 yards on 44 carries.

One thing no one denies with Wentz is his physical attributes. From Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus:

"

The wider hash marks in college turn deep out routes or comebacks into a real challenge from the far hash, but Wentz could make them look easy. Plenty of QBs in this class didn't have the arm to complete them without letting the defensive back have a play on the receiver or the ball, but Wentz is different. In the NFL the hash marks are closer together, so the distance in these throws is less, but then the athletes he is throwing against are better, so it's still a very real advantage on an important group of throws.

"

Monson also praised Wentz's ability to run with the ball and his 6'5", 237-pound frame. Those are aspects of the game that can't be taught and give him a better chance to succeed as an NFL quarterback.

But there's so much unknown about Wentz because of the competition he faced in college and how long the adjustment period could be that he's got the potential to be one of the great small-school quarterbacks drafted or a spectacular flameout in a hurry.

Given Wentz's size, athleticism and arm strength, bet on him becoming a great quarterback. It will just take him longer to develop than the typical quarterback taken with one of the first picks in a draft.

Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi

While all of the questions about Wentz revolve around his ability on the field, Mississippi defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche's draft status revolves around his off-field behavior.

Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze suspended Nkemdiche for the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day after the star defender was charged with marijuana possession in December.

Things seemed to get worse for Nkemdiche during the predraft process, as he took no accountability for the marijuana charge in interviews at the scouting combine, per Sports Illustrated's Don Banks.

"Because there was more people in my room," Nkemdiche said. "The hotel was under my name and nobody wanted to take the fall [for the pot]. It had to go under my name."

Compounding that problem, Nkemdiche also revealed he gave up on plays in college: "There are times I didn't finish. I was lazy on some plays."

It's certainly a frustrating time for teams looking at Nkemdiche's comments, because there are draft analysts who will scream about his talent from the rooftops.

NFL.com's Gil Brandt spoke to scouts following Ole Miss' pro day in March, and they threw around words like "special" and "rare" to describe what Nkemdiche did.

Tyler Greever of WJTV tweeted a video of Nkemdiche going through some of his drills that had NFL scouts drooling:

On pure talent, Nkemdiche is one of the best players available in this draft. He's got a lot of maturing to do—on and off the field—that will cause him to slide out of the top tier of Round 1.

One team that makes sense for Nkemdiche because of its history with troubled talents is the Cincinnati Bengals. They don't have to fill a need at defensive tackle because Geno Atkins and Domata Peko are terrific in the middle of head coach Marvin Lewis' defensive line.

But finding an elite talent at No. 24 is not something that happens often. Nkemdiche will be a star if he can mature quickly. He's one of the few players you can say has the ability to be a franchise player if he wants it.

Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State

There's a huge difference between being a great college player and an NFL draft prospect. Joey Bosa entered the predraft process looking like he was both, but an erratic workout has left his pro potential up in the air.

Bosa is still going to be a high draft pick because he's a pass-rusher who had 51 tackles for loss and 26 sacks in three seasons at Ohio State. The former Buckeye is not a bum at 6'5" and 269 pounds, so he looks the part of an NFL defensive end.

Sports Illustrated's Chris Burke called Bosa one of the most challenging prospects to evaluate for this year's draft because he doesn't seem to have the versatility NFL teams desire.

"The way he attacks makes him best suited for a hand-in-the-dirt DE role or possibly an extended opportunity to pass rush from the [3-technique]," Burke wrote. "However, he doesn't check off all the boxes at any one spot—we're talking 4–3 DE or DT, and 3–4 DE or OLB."

Burke added that if Bosa isn't a fit as a 3-4 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker, it "could limit how many teams consider him on draft day."

Yet it seems the more information we have about a player, the less we actually pay attention to what he can do. It goes back to the comments about Wentz and the value of being an unknown commodity.

It was easy to pick Bosa apart for what he wasn't doing at the scouting combine, including running a worse-than-expected 4.86-second 40-yard dash, but that shouldn't take away from what Bosa does so well.

Brandt tweeted what it is he can do better than almost any player in this draft class:

Is Bosa going to be the most versatile defensive player and the second coming of J.J. Watt? Probably not. Does that make him a disappointing draft prospect? Only if your expectation was for him to be the equivalent of this generation's best defensive player.

The NFL is a passing league. Bosa excels at getting after the quarterback. That's a rare skill every team is searching for, which is why he will be an easy top-five pick even with a less-than-stellar predraft workout.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com.