2016 NFL Draft: Prospects Who Could Become Eventual Vet Replacements
As far as NFL draft coverage goes, we overrate short-term upside. Last year, no one had the New York Jets selecting Leonard Williams, the 3-4 defensive end who joined a team that already had two young 3-4 defensive end prospects on rookie contracts.
What is undervalued every year are franchises that look a year or two ahead to fill positions of need. In this class, there are six circumstances of prospects who fit long-term team needs to replace an aging veteran or expiring contract more than the rest of the league.
We'll explain which teams are included, why those veterans may be passed on and who may fill their roles early on in the draft. In an effort to break the mold of typical mock drafts, we will give you some sleeper selections to consider.
Chargers Take Joey Bosa to Replace Melvin Ingram
1 of 6
Melvin Ingram was the San Diego Chargers' first-round pick in 2012, and he's coming off of a 10.5-sack season, but his inconsistency may lead to the team to pass over a second contract. The franchise picked up his fifth-year option last offseason, but he had only started 12 games over three years for the team prior to 2015.
Posting just five sacks over that span, his production took a huge jump last season. Still, his sporadic influence as a pass-rusher is much more significant than his influence as a run defender, where he's still somewhat of a liability.
When you look at the construction of this team, San Diego wants to get tough. On the offensive line, the 6'9", 330-pound King Dunlap is playing left tackle, which is a position usually reserved for linemen who are light on their feet, and the Chargers' former first-round pick, the 339-pound D.J. Fluker, has kicked inside to guard to give them a run-first line.
On the defensive side of the ball, they are one of the few teams in the league that plays a significant amount of snaps in a 3-4 defense with traditional 3-4 roles. What that means is that the defensive linemen are also run-first stuffers instead of gap-shooting penetrators. If that's the identity of the team, Ingram, and 252-pound third-year pass-rusher Jeremiah Attaochu, isn't the franchise's ideal mold for a starting outside linebacker.
The top edge defender in this draft class is Joey Bosa of Ohio State—a 20-year-old who has been a factor for the Buckeyes since his true freshman season. Bosa's father and uncle were both first-round picks of the Miami Dolphins, and he projects to be the third in his family to hear his name called early.
His one flaw is that he's more of an all-around player than a pure pass-rusher, but if that's what the Chargers are looking for, consider him more than a dark-horse candidate to be drafted with the third overall pick.
Buccaneers Take Laquon Treadwell to Replace Vincent Jackson
2 of 6
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are offense-heavy in the draft. How heavy? Jason Licht, the team's general manager, didn't draft a defensive player with any of the franchise's six picks in his rookie draft of 2014. In 2015, the organization drafted one defender, a fourth-round pick, out of seven selections. In total, 12 of Tampa Bay's 13 selections under its current leadership have come on the offensive side of the ball.
Though the team took Mike Evans in the first round of the 2014 draft, the franchise's other top wideout, Vincent Jackson, is on an expiring contract. He's in the last season of a five-year, $55 million deal. For a 33-year-old who only posted 543 receiving yards in 2015, it may be time to look toward the future.
The Buccaneers pick in the ninth overall slot, which is right around when the first tier of prospects transitions to the second tier. In those ranges, you typically see teams draft more for need than value. Though the position isn't being discussed as a short-term need, receiver is a position Tampa Bay could be looking at early.
Replacing the 230-pound Jackson with 221-pound Laquon Treadwell of Mississippi, who is considered to be the consensus top wideout in the class, is a seamless transition. Acquiring a talented 20-year-old to replace an aging veteran is a fine example of how the great franchises in the league operate.
Bears Take Josh Doctson to Replace Alshon Jeffery
3 of 6
The Chicago Bears are in a similar situation as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They just drafted a first-round receiver in Kevin White, but they only have two starting-caliber wideouts on their roster, and the other is on an expiring contract.
Alshon Jeffery is a known talent, but his injury history is a bit concerning. In 2015 alone, Jeffery was on the injury report for calf, hamstring, groin and shoulder issues. Chicago brought him back on a franchise tag after the team couldn't come to a long-term agreement with the receiver, but he's only a Bear for one more season.
Part of the problem is that the team may be pitching Jeffery a similar contract to A.J. Green's, a player who also had injury questions when he was slated to hit the open market, and Jeffery's people probably think he can net more, as wideouts typically considered as lesser talents than Green, like Demaryius Thomas and T.Y. Hilton, are making more than the Bengals receiver.
If $10 million is a make-or-break number over the lifespan of the contract offer to Jeffery, the smart move for the Bears may be to use his last year as a transition season while they work White and a premier rookie receiver into the offense.
Quietly, Josh Doctson of TCU may be the best pass-catcher in the class. Laquon Treadwell has the edge on him in terms of age, but Doctson is a borderline 4.4-second receiver with great body control. If you can replace Jeffery with a player who may develop into a DeAndre Hopkins on a rookie contract, freeing up about $14 million per year for five seasons during the process, people can view that as a net positive. It all comes down to if the staff in Chicago thinks it has enough job security to let talent walk in the short term for a long-term gain.
.png?w=256)
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Raiders Take Ezekiel Elliott to Replace Latavius Murray
4 of 6
Yes, Latavius Murray was the AFC's second-leading rusher in 2015, but behind that Oakland Raiders offensive line, the feat is less impressive. On top of that, at a position where a stark falloff typically begins at 28 years old, Murray will be an unrestricted free agent at 27 years old next offseason.
The decision the Raiders need to make is if they want to pay a late-blooming running back, knowing that by 2018, he's going to look like a shell of himself. The alternative is to take a young player, like Ezekiel Elliott, who is just 20 years old and can handle two long contracts before his career should start to dwindle.
Oakland is a smart organization that has turned a team that looked like the current Cleveland Browns into a potential playoff contender. Armed with a loaded offensive line and a set of triplets with Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Elliott, that offense automatically becomes one of the best in football for the next five years.
Elliott is a talented running back who can also contribute in the passing game as both a pass-catcher and a blocker, but he's being undervalued as the league devalues the position due to running backs' stereotypical short careers and the NFL's overall swing toward the air game. Looking at the Raiders' investment on offensive linemen and Murray's voluminous 2015, though, it's hard to claim they have devalued the ground attack. Plus, considering Elliott's age, he should have as long of a career with the team as any other first-round picks do.
Chiefs Take Chris Jones to Replace Dontari Poe
5 of 6
The Kansas City Chiefs have a lot of mouths to feed. The recent signings and re-signings of players like Jeremy Maclin, Mitchell Schwartz, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali puts some other players' long-term statuses with the team in question.
The top three expiring contracts on the roster are Eric Berry, the safety who is on a franchise tag; Dontari Poe, the nose tackle who is on his fifth-year option; and Eric Fisher, the former first overall pick whose fifth-year option hasn't been executed yet.
John Dorsey, the Chiefs general manager, comes from the Green Bay Packers' scouting staff, which has been heavily influenced by Ron Wolf—Ted Thompson's predecessor in Green Bay—who is extremely similar to Al Davis. If you look at the freak athletes in the Kansas City front seven, like Poe, Houston and even Allen Bailey, it's obvious that the team has a type, even if it's just retaining the talents already on the roster.
If the team lets Poe walk, which is possible, it will be the first time Kansas City has been asked to replace a cornerstone defender under its current staff. One player who fits well for what the Chiefs are looking for is Chris Jones of Mississippi State.
Jones may not look athletic on paper, but when you adjust for his size, he's one of the best defensive linemen in terms of athleticism in this draft class. Mock Draftable, a site that calculates for the percentiles of each combine drill for individual positions, has Jones with a comparable body to Leonard Williams, last year's sixth overall pick; Muhammad Wilkerson, the second-best 3-4 defensive end in the NFL behind J.J. Watt; and John Henderson, one of the best defensive tackles of the early and mid-2000s.
Jones can get looks as a 5-technique defensive end early on in his career, which gives the Chiefs a negotiation edge on Poe's future contract. If he doesn't want to re-sign on a deal that won't break the bank, the team could easily slide Jones, the 21-year-old who was 247Sports' No. 2 defensive end recruit coming out of high school, inside as a nose tackle. You can never have too many defensive linemen—the most heavily rotated position in the sport.
Tyrann Mathieu: Will Redmond, CB, Mississippi State
6 of 6
The Arizona Cardinals traded a second-round pick and their former first-round guard Jonathan Cooper for pass-rusher Chandler Jones, formerly of the New England Patriots. Due to that move, they only have one pick in the first 91 selections in the coming NFL draft.
They have one shot at a high-impact player, and they have to make it worth it. For a team that fell just one game short of the Super Bowl last season, it is going to have to get creative to make up for the holes that might pop up on its 2017 roster. Receiver Larry Fitzgerald, defensive end Calais Campbell, the recently acquired Jones, receiver Michael Floyd, guard Evan Mathis and defensive back Tyrann Mathieu are all slated to hit the open market after this season.
The team is good enough to compete as is, but it needs to find ways to turn the 29th overall pick into a high-level replacement for one of those players. One of the best candidates for the selection is Will Redmond of Mississippi State.
Think of Redmond as a hybrid defensive back, similar to Mathieu. His best comparison is probably Bradley Roby, the 2014 31st overall pick who has played safety and slot corner for the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos.
As far as talent is concerned, the 2014 draft class doesn't quite match up with 2016. Roby was the fifth cornerback off the board in his draft. In 2016, people would have ranked Roby (as a prospect) as the second cornerback in the class after only Jalen Ramsey of Florida State.
If the Cardinals don't need a short-term starter, Redmond will provide a tremendous value for the team in years two through five of his potential five-year rookie deal. Getting to the top of the NFL's food chain is hard, but staying at the top is even harder. Tough decisions have to be made for long-term success, and Redmond has all the making of an impact defensive back.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
