NFL Draft Prospects Who Could Experience Draft-Day Slides
With just over two weeks until the 2016 NFL draft, rumors and smokescreens are swirling as teams make the final tweaks to their board before heading into the war room.
Every year, there are a handful of prospects who enter the predraft process with high projections, only to tumble down the board when draft weekend finally arrives. Whether it's injuries, off-field issues or questionable workout numbers, there are plenty of factors that can cause a player to come off the board later than originally expected.
This year's class is no different; multiple big-name players could experience at least a small fall early in the draft, while some could free-fall out of the first round entirely.
Who could be looking at such a situation come April 28?
Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Mississippi
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If you're looking for the most polarizing prospect in this year's draft, you may not have to look beyond Mississippi defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche.
Once projected as the potential top overall pick, Nkemdiche's off-field issues could have NFL teams thinking twice about picking him in the first round at all. A drug-related charge and subsequent suspension for this year's Sugar Bowl have led to serious concerns about Nkemdiche's ability to make the best decisions off the field.
Though he's one of the most impressive natural talents in the draft, Nkemdiche is still a fairly raw player, with a lack of production that could raise its own red flags. Based on playing ability alone, he's still worth a top-10 pick, but multiple factors could cause him to still be available on Day 2.
Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky
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Another disruptive defender with promising talent, Eastern Kentucky's Noah Spence has his own off-field issues to overcome in convincing NFL teams he's worth a top pick in this year's draft.
A highly touted recruit coming out of high school, Spence flashed playmaking talent early on at Ohio State, but poor decision-making off the field proved to be his undoing in Columbus. After he failed multiple drug tests, the Big Ten declared him permanently ineligible.
Then he had to watch the Buckeyes win the national title without him. Spence transferred to EKU and has seemingly steered clear of his previous pitfalls. He dominated for the Colonels in 2015, bringing himself back into the conversation as arguably the best pure edge-rusher in this year's draft class.
But Spence's performance at the combine didn't appear to reassure NFL teams of his athleticism or explosiveness. That combined with his off-field concerns means on draft day he could end up dropping behind other pass-rushers who are less risky.
Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
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A serious injury is never something a top prospect wants to endure, but it's particularly difficult when it happens late in the season. Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith experienced just that this past season, suffering a gruesome knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl.
Despite having college eligibility remaining, Smith chose to declare for the draft anyway, hoping to rehab his knee and be ready to make an impact at the pro level. But the severity of his injury could keep him from playing at all in 2016, which has many NFL teams understandably concerned.
At full health, Smith is one of the top overall prospects in the draft, as an explosive playmaker with rare athleticism for a linebacker. But if teams aren't comfortable with his medical evaluation, they could avoid the risk and not spend a premium pick on a player who might not see the field as a rookie, and may not even be the same player when he finally does.
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Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi
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Even after a scary leg injury ended his 2014 season prematurely, Mississippi's Laquon Treadwell entered the 2015 campaign as the consensus top receiving prospect in this year's draft class.
But as the predraft process has moved along, questions about Treadwell's top-end speed have fueled the possibility of him falling behind other receivers in the first round. After choosing not to run the 40-yard dash at the combine, Treadwell ran in the 4.6-second range at his pro day, a less-than-impressive number for a top receiver prospect.
Treadwell's tape tells the story of a legitimate No. 1 pass-catcher at the pro level, but some teams could be scared away by his slow 40 times. With a handful of faster receivers nipping at his heels—Baylor's Corey Coleman, TCU's Josh Doctson and Ohio State's Michael Thomas—Treadwell could end up sliding to the latter stages of the first round.
Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
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Last year, USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams was widely regarded as the draft's top non-quarterback prospect, which is why many were surprised to see him slip to the sixth-overall pick. This year, Ohio State's Joey Bosa could face a similar drop from potential top-overall pick to outside of the top five selections.
Much like Williams', Bosa's fall would have far less to do with him than the teams and other players ahead of him. With rare athletes like Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey, Mississippi offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, UCLA linebacker Myles Jack and Oregon defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, along with a quarterback-needy team in the Cleveland Browns, Bosa could be on the outside looking in after the fifth pick.
Bosa is a well-rounded prospect who wins with power as a pass-rusher and can anchor effectively and consistently against the run, but he's not the flashy edge-rusher who will beat NFL tackles with explosiveness. He's one of the safer picks at the top of the draft, but he may have to wait to hear his name called until after prospects with higher ceilings in the top five.
Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
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Old-school NFL fans will love Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland's game, with his physical playing style and punishing hits. But today's NFL requires a new level of speed and athleticism to match up with the talent on the offensive side of the ball, which could cause teams to pass him over early in the draft for a more athletic alternative.
Currently ranked the 15th-best player in the entire draft by CBS Sports, Ragland was one of the driving forces behind a dominant Crimson Tide defense, helping lead them to yet another national title this past season. But while his instincts and physicality will likely endear him to some NFL teams, his lack of ideal quickness, versatility and flexibility could easily drop him on plenty of draft boards.
He'll give maximum effort and be an effective two-down run-stuffer at the next level, but with athletic playmakers like UCLA's Myles Jack and Ohio State's Darron Lee at the position in this year's class, Ragland could end up slipping to the end of the first round.
Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
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Projected as one of the top tackles in last year's draft, Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley chose to return for another season in South Bend, hoping to refine his skills and build even more draft buzz for this year's cycle.
Instead, it looks like concerns about his strength, work ethic and mental toughness could take him from a likely top-five selection to falling out of the top 10 picks in 2016, per Matt Lombardo of NJ.com.
Stanley hopes to put those doubts to rest prior to the draft.
"I've just heard many different things that people think I'm just a laid back guy that just relies on his talent, doesn't really love the game like he should," Stanley said, per Lombardo. "I'm really trying to show those people what football means to me—not necessarily those people, but the teams."
This sounds like one of the bigger smokescreens of the entire predraft process this year, as Stanley is arguably the most polished tackle in the entire class, especially as a pass-protector. But if there's truth to these rumors and concerns, a team could get a steal if Stanley falls out of the top five selections.
Tyler Higbee, TE, Western Kentucky
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He may not have been a projected first-round pick, but Western Kentucky tight end Tyler Higbee had generated plenty of positive buzz over the past few months as one of the more underrated prospects at the position in this year's class.
But that momentum came to a halt Sunday, when Higbee was arrested on multiple charges including assault, per Zach Greenwell of the Bowling Green Daily News.
This was the worst possible time for a draft prospect like Higbee to allegedly make such a poor series of decisions, and it could have a serious impact on his draft stock. Despite his struggles to stay healthy, Higbee had a strong case to be the second tight end off the board later this month, but this situation could make that all evaporate and send him to Day 3.
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