Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona: Areas Where the Tie Will Be Won and Lost
The UEFA Champions League will yield its semi-finalists this week, with the quarter-finals set to take place on Tuesday and Wednesday—and the big game involving Spanish sides Atletico Madrid and Barcelona is the most intriguing second leg of all.
Barca lead 2-1 after an eventful first 90 minutes that saw Atleti lead, then go down to 10 men, before the Catalan outfit turned the game on its head.
There's still plenty in the balance in this tie, though, especially given recent form, and here we have identified six key areas of the match where either side will have to come out on top if they are to progress to the last four.
11 on the Pitch
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It sounds blindingly obvious, but it played such a huge part in both the first leg and the Liga match earlier in the season that it is a must-note point of the game.
Fernando Torres' red card changed Atletico's ability to press high and work in gangs in the first leg. On top of that, it removed one of Atleti's out-balls to relieve pressure and left them short of goalscoring options for the remainder of that game and, naturally, this upcoming second leg due to suspension.
Filipe Luis and Diego Godin were both sent off in the league clash between the sides, where Atleti were again narrowly beaten 2-1 after being the more impressive side for much of the encounter.
Their style of play in these big games relies on aggression and challenges, but there's a line they need make sure they do not cross. All three of the red cards were deserved for different reasons, and without keeping 11 on the field this time, there's very little hope of them qualifying for the semi-finals at Barcelona's expense.
Early Press: Who Pairs with Griezmann?
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The absence of Torres opens up a conundrum for Diego Simeone: Who plays up front alongside Antoine Griezmann? The Spanish No. 9 has been in great scoring form of late and looks confident on the ball, so someone else needs to step up and reproduce Torres' output both on and off the ball.
Two main contenders have to be Yannick Carrasco and Angel Correa.
Carrasco has already showed twice against Barca that his pace and dribbling can trouble the back line, and he's an excellent out-ball for Atletico, while he also works hard at pressing and combines well with Griezmann. Correa works relentlessly, too—though has at times lacked consistency and doesn't link quite as well, but he can find a goal out of nothing.
Playing Carrasco up front likely means a midfield quartet of Koke, Gabi, Saul and Augusto Fernandez; playing Correa in a two-man attack will see Carrasco out wide and probably Augusto left out. A final alternative: play both in the attacking line, either side of Griezmann.
Between the Lines, Part 1: Koke vs. Sergio Busquets
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The most in-form player in La Liga over the past four or five weeks is Atletico's midfield maestro Koke.
Having endured, rather than enjoyed, much of this season until recently, the versatile schemer has rediscovered his most creative performances and is combining his off-the-ball work rate with a killer instinct in the final third.
He scored at the weekend, too, and netted against Barca earlier on in the campaign, but it's his through passes from deep—just like his assist for Torres in the first leg—that are his real trademark and are occurring with regularity right now.
Against that is the best overall defensive midfielder on the planet, but Sergio Busquets hasn't been at his peak of late. It's Busquets who will be shutting down the spaces between midfield and defence that Koke loves to drift into off the flank, Busquets who makes the challenges tracking back toward his own back four and Busquets who often has to be on hand to nick second balls and rebounds outside the penalty box.
International team-mates they may be for Spain at Euro 2016, but on Wednesday, the player who is quickest to make use of space and time on the ball will determine the number of chances on goal Atletico can fashion.
Between the Lines, Part 2: Gabi vs. Leo Messi
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In the other half of the pitch, Gabi has also been in very good form of late—but against Barcelona, he has at times struggled to contain the fast-paced link play and movement in off the channels from Neymar or Leo Messi.
Usually playing right-of-centre in Atleti's double pivot, Gabi comes up against Neymar in the classic Barca 4-3-3, but Messi has been stationed almost dead centre over the past few weeks, and it can be expected that he does so again in an effort to dictate play and fashion more chances for his side in the second leg than they did for the majority of the first.
Cutting off Messi's avenues to play lofted balls on the diagonal, or sharp, low passes into feet on the edge of the box, is a critical part of Gabi's mission on the night, as well as tracking the runs off the flank from both Messi and Neymar as they look to combine at speed.
As a player who starts Atletico's counters with direct balls from deep, he's also important in ensuring the first pass from defence is accurate and timely, to prevent Barcelona from coming back with wave after wave of attacks.
Fitness at the Back
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Diego Godin recovered from injury in time for the first leg but was partnered in defence by Lucas Hernandez—who is enjoying a first run in the Atletico side and certainly not letting himself down—but on such a huge occasion, there can be little doubt Diego Simeone would prefer his more experienced centre-backs in place.
Stefan Savic and Josema Gimenez are both back in training after injury, but Marca reports them as unlikely to make the second leg—though it's not entirely out of the question.
Lucas came through the first leg in impressive fashion, and with Godin beside him, there's every chance he'll repeat the feat at the Vicente Calderon this time around, but despite a recent dip in form, he will be facing the most fearsome attacking trident in world football.
Luis Suarez enjoyed a rest at the weekend, and Neymar and Messi's qualities speak for themselves. As for Godin, a warrior he might be, but after recovering from a hamstring injury in a very short time, he will now be facing the prospect of playing 270 minutes in the space of eight days. It could even be more than 270 minutes if it goes to extra time, which he couldn't make it through against PSV Eindhoven in the last round.
Bench Options
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Starting XIs and tactics are all-important, but carefully finding the balance to affect play off the bench is a trick the coaches of both sides will also be relying on.
Simeone should have Oliver Torres back fit, while Thomas Partey, Correa and Luciano Vietto are his usual attacking options off the bench. To tighten things up, Jesus Gamez is the reliable full-back, and Augusto or Matias Kranevitter can add an extra midfield body.
Barcelona's front line won't be changed unless injury strikes, and Munir continues to be hot-and-cold other than on his close-range finishes from low crosses, but the lack of impact from Arda Turan of late will be of greater concern for Luis Enrique. Rafinha is back from injury though clearly not yet fully sharp, and elsewhere it will be Sergi Roberto as the man to fix any role if the Barca boss needs greater balance or control.
Within perhaps one or two players, the starting XIs of both Atleti and Barca could be picked right now, so those off the bench will be critical in swinging a tight game one way or the other. Which boss makes his move at the right time, with the right option, could yet have a huge say on the outcome.
