The Biggest Misconceptions About the 2016 NFL Draft

We're two-and-a-half weeks from the draft, the most important event in the NFL's offseason. At this point, everyone has a solid grasp on who the popular names in the draft are. Change is coming, though, and prospects will be viewed in a different light leading up to the big week.

As the draft gets closer, the easier it becomes to piece together the puzzle of how the league feels about a class. As of now, some logical fallacies and narratives are obscuring what this pool of talent really offers.

We'll take a stab at exposing some of the dirty secrets in the draft by going over some of the delusions that the general public has bought into, and then we'll dispel them or at least explain why the execution of them is in doubt. Five position or expectation tales just don't add up, and it's time for them to go away.

Carson Wentz Will Be Available with the Second Overall Pick

Bruce Crummy/Associated Press

The mood around the first overall pick is odd. After the Senior Bowl, we were quick to crown Carson Wentz of North Dakota State as the next savior quarterback. The Tennessee Titans, who hold the first selection in the draft, brought in Marcus Mariota with the second overall pick last season, so the spot that Wentz comes off the board most often in mock drafts is second overall, a selection the Cleveland Browns hold.

The Browns aren't the only team in need of a quarterback, though. There just aren't many ways to get a franchise quarterback in the NFL, and desperate teams make desperate decisions.

Look at the 2012 draft class, for example. The Indianapolis Colts needed a quarterback, so they drafted Andrew Luck. The St. Louis Rams didn't need a quarterback, so they essentially traded Robert Griffin III to the Washington Redskins for three first-round picks and a second-round pick.

If a franchise quarterback is on the board and you need a passer, you take him. If you don't need him, you cash out. Some have claimed that Wentz is the best quarterback prospect since Luck, which means they think more of him as a prospect than Griffin.

If the Titans do draft first overall, it's almost certainly Laremy Tunsil or Jalen Ramsey. Tunsil would either play right tackle, filling a big hole at a non-premier position, or replace Taylor Lewan at left tackle, which is a marginal upgrade in the short term. That is concerning when Lewan's rookie deal comes up in 2018, and the Titans have to decide if they want to reset the league-wide right tackle market.

Ramsey is a cornerback, a position that hasn't ever been drafted first overall.

Would you trade the opportunity to improve your right tackle or cornerback for multiple first-round picks? Teams such as the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and even the New York Jets might be in play for Tennessee's top pick. The Rams, particularly, are interesting, as they own three top-45 picks in this class.

There's no reason why the Titans should make the first overall pick, if teams really think as highly about Wentz as the NFL media do.

Laremy Tunsil Is a Top-Five Lock

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

Many draft analysts think Laremy Tunsil, the former Mississippi offensive tackle, is the best prospect in the draft. It's easy to see why someone would claim he's a generational talent when you watch him shut down SEC pass-rushers such as Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and Auburn's Carl Lawson.

Jonathan Ogden comparisons and "the best tackle prospect since Joe Thomas" claims hold up on film. When you attempt to pin down where he will land, though, the tasks of evaluating and projecting are separated.

In the last draft class, there were claims that Leonard Williams, another blue-chip recruit who turned into a premier line prospect, was the top talent in the class. The USC defensive end slipped to sixth overall, after there were no positional fits for him early in the draft.

The same could happen with Tunsil.

The Tennessee Titans have a functional left tackle in Taylor Lewan who is only 24 years old, the same age as some of April's draft picks. There's only one example of a team investing heavily in a right tackle who will eventually flip to the blind side down the line: Lane Johnson and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The other 31 franchises don't seem to value the position much. Of the 18 highest-paid tackles based on salary, 17 are left tackles, except for Johnson, per Spotrac. Tennessee, which picks first, Cleveland, which picks second, and Dallas, which picks fourth, all have their left tackles on the roster already.

The third overall pick is held by the San Diego Chargers, who have locked up their two offensive tackles to long-term deals over the past two seasons and even moved D.J. Fluker, their former first-round tackle, to guard.

The Jacksonville Jaguars also are unlikely to select Tunsil, as they gave Jermey Parnell the fourth-largest right tackle contract in the league just last season. At left tackle, there's already a battle between former second overall pick Luke Joeckel and Kelvin Beachum, who started 34 games for the Steelers over the last three years.

If no teams make a trade to steal a slipping Tunsil, he may fall farther than anyone expects. Last season, the first trade of the draft didn't occur until the 15th overall pick; teams saw Williams tumbling down the order, but no one pulled the trigger.

Robert Nkemdiche's Production Is an Issue

Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

There is simply no correlation between the number of sacks a player has in college and the number of sacks he could have in the NFL. As far as 3-technique under tackles are concerned, athleticism, not production, is the most important factor in terms of non-film evaluation. We need to turn the conversation around on Robert Nkemdiche.

A comparable player in the recent past had the same production question coming out of school. In Sheldon Richardson's two years as a significant contributor at the University of Missouri, he posted only six sacks, which is one more than Nkemdiche had in his last two years at the University of Mississippi.

What did Richardson have going for him, though? Amazing combine numbers. Per Mock Draftable, Richardson's third-most similar prospect match since 1999 is Nkemdiche, based on their on-paper athleticism. Richardson was drafted 13th overall, despite his perceived lack of impact, and earned NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2013. In 2014, he was named to the Pro Bowl, after recording the fifth-best sack total in the league for an interior lineman.

Who led the NFL that year? Marcell Dareus, who went third overall in 2011 after declaring off a 4.5-sack season, just 1.5 sacks more than Nkemdiche.

Nkemdiche is the most athletic defensive lineman in the draft with first-round talent on film. That tends to mean more than college sack numbers in the long run. Do not be surprised if he is a much better stat-sheet player in the NFL than he was in college.

Jalen Ramsey Is a Safety

Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

Per Spotrac, of the highest-paid defensive backs according to salary, only five of the top 24 are safeties. Cornerbacks dominate the top of the market, even if safeties such as Earl Thomas, Devin McCourty, Jairus Byrd and Malcolm Jenkins have played cornerback at either the college or NFL level.

The only "true" safety paid like a top-24 player in the secondary is Eric Berry. Of the four cornerback converts, only one, Jenkins, measured in over 5'11" flat at the combine.

While Jalen Ramsey, the former Florida State cornerback, can play safety, which was easy to tell based on his sophomore film, it's irresponsible to project him as anything less than an outside cornerback. Safeties just aren't valued as much as cornerbacks, and in today's league, where length is the premier trait for press-man prospects, a team would be going well against the grain and perceived logic by placing him at safety.

For all intents and purposes, Ramsey is a top-five lock. If he doesn't get drafted to his home-state Tennessee Titans with the first overall selection, the other four franchises picking early in the draft are also reasonable landing spots.

Berry seems to be the rule-breaker, not the rule. Not only is the only pure safety being paid like a cornerback, but he's the last safety to be drafted in the top five, in the 2010 class. Before that, the previous one was Sean Taylor, who also came off the board fifth overall in 2004. Since 1994, when Ramsey was born, those are the highest safeties drafted.

Ramsey's talent as a long press-man corner is too good to pass up. He uses the sideline to suffocate outside receivers better than any prospect in recent memory, and his impact as a safety will change when he's playing on a field with narrower hashes. If he's drafted early as a safety, the franchise responsible would be bucking just about every trend of the last decade of NFL football.

Joey Bosa Is a Premier Pass-Rusher

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Joey Bosa is a good, not great, pass-rusher. He's a long and young player whose best football might be ahead of him, but it's hard to imagine him turning into DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller or Khalil Mack. He's just not that guy.

If you pair him with a good 3-technique defensive tackle, he may be a quality clean-up pass-rusher. A player like Carlos Dunlap, who has Geno Atkins on the inside of him in Cincinnati, is a comparison to what Bosa could develop into.

The big concern for Bosa's upside is his time in the 40-yard dash. He ran the drill in 4.86 seconds, per NFL.com. Here's a list of the first-round pass-rushers who have run a 4.8-second 40-yard dash since 2005 and were still taken as first-round edge defenders:

• Jarvis Jones, whose future is up in the air, as the Pittsburgh Steelers decide what to do with his fifth-year option.
• Bjoern Werner, who is a free agent after being drafted in 2013.
• Larry English, who has 12 sacks in six playing seasons and is a free agent.
• Derrick Harvey, who notched eight sacks in his NFL career.
• Lawrence Jackson, who was only in the league for five seasons.
• Tamba Hali, the lone "hit" on the list.
• Erasmus James, who recorded five sacks in his career.

Bosa was coached by Larry Johnson at Ohio State, who was Hali's coach at Penn State, and they are similar technicians, but Bosa doesn't have the same power that Hali does. With Bosa's consistency, age and pedigree, he's a long shot to bust, but expecting him to be a 10-sack guy is out of line.