2016 NFL Draft: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Predictions

For NFL fans, the most exciting day of the year is almost here!

Sure, the Super Bowl is great and all, but supporters of just two of the league's 32 teams get to enjoy that one. For everyone else, it's just an excellent reason to eat nachos, drink beer and complain about how the commercials were better 10 years ago.

They were, by the way. But that's a tale for another day.

On Thursday, however, it's all about hope for fans of every squad. At the Auditorium Theatre in Chicago, the NFL will conduct the first round of the 2016 NFL draft. From the Los Angeles Rams to the Denver Broncos, each team will get its first crack at this year's incoming crop of rookies.

Well, except for the New England Patriots. The air was let out of the draft's first day for them, compliments of commissioner Roger Goodell.

See what I did there?

Of course, there's more than just one round. Friday brings the second and third trip through the draft order, while the final four rounds of the draft will play out Saturday.

Each year's draft is replete with storylines, and 2016 is no different. Will North Dakota State's Carson Wentz or Cal's Jared Goff be the first quarterback off the board? How far will Ole Miss offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil fall after weeks as the presumed top pick?

And most importantly, who will the Rams take with that No. 1 overall pick?

We've gathered the NFL brain trust here at Bleacher Report to answer those questions and more with an in-depth look at their consensus predictions for the 2016 NFL draft.

Steal of the Draft

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Winner: Noah Spence, EDGE, Eastern Kentucky (4 votes)

There may not be a prospect in this year's draft who has been on more of a roller coaster the past few years than edge-rusher Noah Spence of Eastern Kentucky.

Spence was a highly touted recruit who appeared destined for stardom at one of college football's powerhouses. Then Spence failed two drug tests, which led to his dismissal from Ohio State. He transferred to Eastern Kentucky, where his talents again began to shine.

Draft season brought another ride. He followed a dominant showing at the Senior Bowl with a combine performance that was anything but.

However, despite the past missteps and a sluggish 4.8-second 40 time in Indy, some analysts (including Bleacher Report's own Ty Schalter) believe Spence is the best pass-rusher in this year's class:

"

Spence has a lot of question marks around him, namely off-field questions strong enough to force Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer to kick him off the team. But after cutting a pedestrian 4.80-second 40-yard dash time, Spence went on to display the tools that made him a valued part of Meyer's defense—and, not to put too fine a point on it, show up former Buckeye teammate Joey Bosa.

Bosa disappointed in the 40-yard dash, running a 4.86, and also finished behind Spence in vertical jump and broad jump. ...

Whether he's truly turned that corner is an open question. But there shouldn't be any question, despite his less-than-amazing 40 time, that Spence is as good an edge-rushing prospect as any NFL team will be able to find in this draft.

"

As Mike DeCourcy of Sporting News wrote, Spence hasn't shied away from his checkered past: "I’m just telling the truth, my own story, just not holding anything back. I feel like everything I’ve ever done is out in the open. I’ve never gotten away with anything. It’s all there. There’s nothing to hide."

That attitude and willingness to take responsibility for his errors and judgment have helped Spence's cause. But as Chad Reuter of NFL.com pointed out, it doesn't erase the past:

"

At the Senior Bowl, he looked like the best edge prospect available. Some mock drafts had him listed in the top 10 picks overall around that time. But as teams conducted their evaluations before, during and after the NFL Scouting Combine, talk of the top 10 has slowed and now he's being mentioned in the late first- or early second-round territory.

"

Top-10 talent. A checkered past. Dismissal from a top-tier program. It's a story that mirrors that of cornerback Marcus Peters, who dropped to the 18th overall pick last year after his tribulations at the University of Washington.

Peters, who was our panel's pick as the steal of the 2015 draft, went on to win Defensive Rookie of the Year honors with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Don't be surprised if Spence travels a similar path in his first NFL season.

Others receiving votes: Robert Nkemdiche, DE, Ole Miss (2 votes), Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor (2 votes), Kenyan Drake, RB, Alabama (1 vote), Leonte Carroo, WR, Rutgers (1 vote)

Biggest 1st-Round Reach

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

Winner: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU (3 votes)

Over the past couple of seasons, we have been well and truly spoiled at the wide receiver position. In 2014, Odell Beckham (New York Giants), Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina Panthers) all crossed the 1,000-yard mark as rookies.

A year ago, Oakland Raiders wideout Amari Cooper spent his first NFL season playing like it was his fifth.

This year, however, is another story. The 2016 class isn't as deep or talented as 2014. There's also no unquestioned top dog as there was with Cooper in 2015.

Of course, that doesn't mean there won't still be a handful of young pass-catchers taken on the draft's first day. Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss. Baylor's Corey Coleman. Will Fuller of Notre Dame. All have a real chance of being Round 1 selections.

You can add TCU's Josh Doctson to that list. In fact, one AFC receivers coach told Lance Zierlein of NFL.com that the 6'2", 202-pounder might be the safest bet of them all if you're looking that route on April 28: "Pure technician. He's really good with those routes and he's the best at getting it up top. When he got hurt, TCU was done. They looked lost without him. He's a safe receiver for the first [round] and one of the only ones."

And yet here we sit, with Doctson as our panel's pick as the biggest first-round reach of 2016.

Maybe it's that while Doctson is a tall receiver, he isn't an especially big or physical one, and his lack of mass helped contribute to some injury issues at TCU.

Maybe it's a TCU offense that called for a limited route tree from Doctson—one that could portend a steeper learning curve in the pros.

Or maybe it's that whether it's Zierlein or Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, the refrain is the same: Doctson has the potential to be a solid No. 2 receiver at the NFL level.

In other words, while Doctson may have one of the highest floors of this year's wide receiver prospects, it comes with a low ceiling.

Others receiving votes: Jared Goff, QB, California (1 vote), Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State (1 vote), Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis (1 vote), Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana (1 vote), Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State (1 vote), Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame (1 vote), Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss (1 vote)

Best Fit

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Winner: Ezekiel Elliott to Dallas Cowboys (4 votes)

Sometimes a pick makes so much sense that even making what some might consider a reach is wise.

Such is the case with the Dallas Cowboys' possible selection of Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott at No. 4.

It's been several years since a running back was taken that early. And the last time it happened (Trent Richardson at No. 3 in 2012) the pick was an absolute disaster.

And yet, pundits such as ESPN.com's Todd Archer have been connecting the dots between Elliott and the Cowboys for some time:

"

Elliott seems to be a perfect fit for what the Cowboys want in a running back. He can plant his foot in the ground and go with tremendous vision. He has the quickness to elude defenders if the blocking is subpar. He is big enough to create his own hole, so to speak, which is a must in short-yardage situations. He does not have to come off the field either with his ability to not only catch passes but block.

"

For his part, Elliott told Rich Eisen's radio show (via the Dallas Morning News) that he'd be fine with playing in Dallas, even as he stated he doesn't have a preference for where he begins his NFL career:

"

I think that I've done my job. I think that I feel why every team should pick me [is because] I think I've had a great combine, I had a great pro day. I had a good meeting. I had a great workout with the Cowboys. I've done everything I can in my power, so I'm just waiting to see what they decide. ...

I think I'm a three-down guy. I'm a guy that's very versatile. I worked on my game so that I could fill up all the holes, fill in all my weakness. I'm a guy that became an excellent pass pro blocker and I was a great run blocker. I catch the ball out the backfield...Obviously, running backs love to run the ball. I think I'm pretty good running inside and outside.

"

Mind you, this isn't to say that the Cowboys will take Elliott. That's a high price to pay for a running back, and the Cowboys have needs on defense that could be addressed with Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa and Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey.

But if the Cowboys are willing to pay that price? If you put the 6'0", 225-pound Elliott behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines in Dallas?

Well, let's just say that Tony Dorsett's team rookie rushing record of 1,007 yards is going to be in serious trouble.

Others receiving votes: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama, to New York Giants (1 vote), Jared Goff, QB, Cal, to Los Angeles Rams (1 vote), DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon, to Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), Buckner to San Diego Chargers (1 vote), Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson, to Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State, to Anyone (1 vote)

Worst Fit

Associated Press

Winner: A'Shawn Robinson to Detroit Lions (5 votes)

Given the rather subjective nature of some of the categories in this article, it isn't a big surprise that the votes are oftentimes all over the place.

In that respect, when over half the panel votes the same way, that's what you call a red flag.

Or in the case of defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson, a Crimson (Tide) one.

More than a few draftniks have slotted the 307-pound beefeater to the Detroit Lions at No. 16, including Peter King of The MMQB:

"

New GM Bob Quinn replenishes the middle of the line a year after the Lions lost Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. What’s really interesting here is the potential availability of [Jack] Conklin, a value pick right about now that some line-needy team (Seattle? Arizona?) could want to jump up and take. Quinn, I believe, having been tutored by the risk-taking New England drafters, would be happy to move down for value.

"

Mind you, it isn't that Robinson isn't good at what he does. As Zierlein of NFL.com pointed out, there are a few things Robinson does quite well, and physically he looks like he was grown from a kit:

"

Hard to find an interior lineman with a more well-­proportioned frame than Robinson. His size and overall talent level will have NFL teams drooling and projecting him along any and all defensive fronts, but his film might leave them hungry for more. ... If Robinson can improve his leverage issues and pass rushing, he has all-­pro potential; however, he’s not a sure thing to become a star.

"

But Robinson, for lack of a better turn of phrase, is what he is: a two-gap, run-stuffing nose tackle. He isn't a disruptive, pocket-collapsing force like Suh. He also isn't an especially good fit on a four-man, one-gap front like the one run in Motown.

The Lions are a team with more than a few holes to fill, and burning a first-rounder on a 1-technique given the issues on the offensive line, in the secondary and at wide receiver...

Well, it would be a very Lions thing to do.

Others receiving votes: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame, to Minnesota Vikings (3 votes), Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville, to Chicago Bears (1 vote), Any second-tier quarterback to the New York Jets (1 vote)

Number of 1st-Round Trades

Chris Chambers/Getty Images

Winner: Five (5 votes)

In both 2013 and 2014, seven first-round picks changed hands. Some were dealt in selection swaps, others in trades that landed Trent Richardson (giggle) in Indianapolis and Percy Harvin (giggle) in Seattle.

Hey, at least the latter helped the Seahawks win Super Bowl XLVIII.

And some of those picks were the result of the Great Train Robbery that was the Robert Griffin III trade.

Last year was a different story. A boring story. There were just three trades and an extra first-rounder for the Browns to waste as final payment in the deal that landed Sammy Watkins in Buffalo.

We already have more intrigue this year than last. The draft hasn't even started, and already the top two picks in the 2016 draft have been shuffled. What was the Tennessee Titans followed by the Browns is now the Rams followed by the Philadelphia Eagles.

That may have been the beginning of the wheeling and dealing, but it won't be the end. Some team desperate for a quarterback might convince itself that Paxton Lynch of Memphis is worth moving up for—or maybe Connor Cook of Michigan State toward the end of Day 1.

Whatever the case, the prevailing wisdom among our panelists is that there will be three more deals involving first-round picks by the time the dust settles Thursday night.

Fun fact: Per Tony Villiotti of the National Football Post, since 2005, no team has done more moving in Round 1 than the Denver Broncos. Right behind them? Cleveland.

One team won the Super Bowl in February. The other, um, did not.

It just goes to show you: having all the picks in the world does no good if you have no clue how to use them.

Others receiving votes: Four (3 votes), Three (1 vote), Two (1 vote)

Biggest Riser

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Winner: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis (6 votes)

Just in case you've been living on Mars for some time (hey, it could happen), here's a fact of life about the NFL.

As goes your quarterback, so goes your team. The teams that have franchise quarterbacks cherish them. The many who don't will do anything to get one.

It's why the Rams and Eagles traded up in Thursday's first round. To draft a quarterback.

However, while almost everyone expects Jared Goff and Carson Wentz to be the first two quarterbacks off the board, there's another signal-caller who could easily spur a team to move up in Round 1.

In fact, Eric Galko wrote for Sporting News that Paxton Lynch of Memphis is the best prospect under center of the bunch:

"

Paxton Lynch stands at 6’7, 244 pounds, but that doesn’t mean he’s lacking athletically. Running a 4.86 at the NFL Scouting Combine and posting the best vertical and broad jump of any quarterback in attendance, Lynch displayed his athletic upside and moved with the balance and body control of an above average out-of-pocket mover.

Lynch clearly possesses a strong arm, but it’s the way he uses his arm talent that allows him to finish throws both on the perimeter and downfield, as well as set up his receivers for yards after the catch. The ability to adjust one’s arm angle and utilize touch is a clear advantage Lynch has over Carson Wentz, and it’s a skill set that many young quarterbacks struggle with.

"

It isn't just a lone draftnik who shares that assessment. Two NFL general managers told Bucky Brooks of NFL.com (via colleague Chase Goodbread) that Lynch has the highest ceiling of any signal-caller in this draft class.

Goff isn't the top quarterback. Nor is Wentz. It's Lynch.

Almost since the instant the Cleveland Browns shipped the second pick to Philly, pundits have been connecting the dots between Lynch and the Browns at No. 8.

Browns head coach Hue Jackson added fuel to those flames while talking to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com: "Everybody keeps talking about two of the best quarterbacks in the draft, no one knows that, right? We'll see how it all unfolds here in two or three years and see if we were right or wrong. But I feel very good about where we are and what we're doing."

Unless, of course, one of the countless teams in the same mess at quarterback decides to cut in front of the Browns.

In any event, the odds Lynch gets out of the top 10 are dwindling by the hour.

Others receiving votes: Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia (1 vote), William Jackson III, CB, Houston (1 vote), Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia (1 vote), Artie Burns, CB, Miami (Fla.) (1 vote)

Biggest Slider

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Winner: Robert Nkemdiche, DE, Ole Miss (8 votes)

This is the category no young prospect wants to see his name on. Just as no young player wants to be the last of the 25 green room invitees waiting to hear his name called at the NFL draft.

It's a real possibility that player could be Ole Miss defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche.

In some ways, Nkemdiche has been a prisoner of his own hype. The 6'3", 294-pounder was a huge coup for the Rebels when he arrived as the most coveted high school prospect in the nation.

However, the impact Nkemdiche made on the playing field never lived up to the signing day hoopla. Despite garnering second-team All-American honors the past two years, Nkemdiche managed only seven sacks in three seasons. There was also trouble off the field, including an arrest for marijuana possession.

There were flashes, though. And those flashes, coupled with Nkemdiche's tantalizing mixture of size and athleticism, left at least one NFC coach scratching his head while speaking to Zierlein:

"

I still don't know if I have a great read on him. I'm usually big on production and he doesn't have it like you want it, but we get paid to coach players up. There is a lot there to coach. I think he'll either drive you crazy or make you look like a genius. Probably not a lot of middle ground is my guess.

"

The combine played out much like his time in Oxford. Nkemdiche did fine in workouts, but he had a horrific interview session in which he reportedly both admitted to bouts of "laziness" on the field and tossed teammate Laremy Tunsil under the bus regarding his tumble off a hotel balcony last year.

As Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported, it wasn't a good look in the eyes of at least one scout: "That's a guy that I could see having a little bit of a plummet. He's not in a weak class [at defensive tackle], and there is a lot of [off-field] stuff there to get through. ... He may not end up being a first-round pick."

In a poll of 17 scouts conducted by Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Nkemdiche garnered 11 votes as the defensive lineman most likely to bust in 2016.

One scout said: “The guy has disaster written all over him.” Another opined: “He doesn’t just think football, football, football 24/7."

If a scout or two (or even a team or two) feel a certain way about a player, that's one thing. It isn't ideal, sure, but it doesn't necessarily portend doom.

However, when a whole room of talent evaluators are pointing at the same guy and shaking their heads...

Well, that's something else entirely.

Others receiving votes: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State (1 vote), Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson (1 vote)

1st RB Drafted

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Winner: Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State (10 votes)

Ah, the joys of unanimous agreement. If only we could get Congress on board with the idea.

And it isn't just the 10 voters on our panel here at Bleacher Report. The overwhelming majority of the draftnik community believes the Ohio State tailback is clearly the top option at his position in 2016.

In fact, just like with Georgia's Todd Gurley the year before, Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones told Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News that, in his opinion, Elliott is worth a top-10 pick: "I think he's worthy of being in the top 10, for sure. Where we ultimately end up with him is still a work in progress, he's obviously a very quality type player and seems like he's pretty much universally looked at as a guy who deserves to be in that category."

God help me—I find myself agreeing with the Jones clan.

Elliott offers everything an NFL team could want in a running back. The 6'0", 225-pounder can pick up yardage between the tackles or on the edge. He can wear a defense down; catch the ball out of the backfield; help out in pass protection.

Elliott might not have Gurley's explosiveness, but he also isn't entering the NFL with a torn ACL. Remember, this is the back who pummeled Alabama and Oregon into submission during Ohio State's march to a national title two years ago.

In fact, several personnel personnel (think about it about it) told McGinn that Elliott is the best tailback prospect to enter the league since 2007. That's the year a kid from Oklahoma went in the top 10.

His name was Peterson, I think.

1st WR Drafted

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Winner: Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss (5 votes)

There may not be any question who this year's top running back is. But when it comes to the wide receivers, no such consensus exists.

As a matter of fact, there may not be a "best" wide receiver in 2016. There are a number of talented youngsters who might go in Round 1. All have skill sets that could make them successful pros. But each also appears to have a hole in his game.

That makes it a matter of what exactly an NFL team is looking for.

Want a speedster capable of hurting defenses over the top? Notre Dame's Will Fuller or Baylor's Corey Coleman fit the bill.

More interested in size and soft hands? Allow me to show you something in a Josh Doctson of TCU. Perhaps a nice Mike Thomas of Ohio State.

Then there's Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss. Much has been made of Treadwell's relatively plodding 40 time of 4.63 seconds at the Rebels' pro day, but that aside, the 6'2", 221-pounder brings a lot to the table.

Size. Speed. Hands. The ability to make the tough catch. Treadwell checks all the boxes, so much so that Brugler compared Treadwell to Dez Bryant.

"Treadwell shows a Bryant-like skill set with his size and athleticism combination to be a mismatch against cornerbacks on the outside," Brugler wrote.

At least one AFC scout told Zierlein (who compared Treadwell to DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans) he feels the concerns about Treadwell's straight-line speed are overblown: "He's going to get beat up because he's slow but I like everything else he does. You would think scouts would learn about overestimating speed and underestimating tape. He'll go in the first but not sure how high."

It would appear our writers are on board with that scout, as half our experts predict Treadwell will be the first wideout drafted in 2016.

Others receiving votes: Josh Doctson, TCU (3 votes), Corey Coleman, Baylor (1 vote), Mike Thomas, Ohio State (1 vote)

1st Pass-Rusher Drafted

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Winner:  Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State (9 votes)

Pass-rushers carry a high premium in the NFL draft. Jadeveon Clowney was the No. 1 overall pick of the Houston Texans two years ago. Last year, Dante Fowler of Florida was the first nonquarterback taken, selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 3.

It's almost a mortal lock that a pass-rusher will be taken in the top five. And much like with Ezekiel Elliott, teammate Joey Bosa is the overwhelming choice of the writers here at B/R to be the first of his position to hear his name called.

Yes, there was a dissenting voice. Me, in fact. If the San Diego Chargers look to the pass rush at No. 3, then Oregon's DeForest Buckner is in play.

There are those who quite simply believe that in addition to being a bigger prospect, Buckner is just a better one, among them Doug Farrar of Sports Illustrated:

"

When I watch Buckner, I see far more pure physical dominance, the kind of athletic excellence that prorates very well to the NFL. Buckner has the size, hand and arm length, and technique to simply bend blockers back at times. He’ll swim and rip them out of the way. Sometimes, he’ll shock-and-awe by just splitting a gap far more quickly than you’d expect from a guy standing 6'7" and weighing 291 pounds. You can line him up anywhere from head-over-nose to the tackle’s outside shoulder, and he’ll make plays.

"

For me, it's as much about fit as talent. Sure, the Bolts could buy Bosa and bump him to outside backer, but why do that when a 3-4 end with a tasty blend of strength and speed is there for the taking?

Buckner and Corey Liuget would make a formidable pair.

However, Farrar's colleague Chris Burke is firmly in the Bosa camp:

"

What really appeals to me about Bosa is that I think there is room to grow his game, but the current iteration of it can make him a productive force right away. The footwork to play off the edge or drop in space is there, just as it was throughout his time at Ohio State. Better yet, though, is how he merges that athleticism with power exceeding that of a 270-pound lineman.

"

Some have dinged Bosa for a statistically disappointing 2015 campaign, but glance at the tape and it isn't hard to see why that happened. Bosa was regularly doubled if he was lucky—tripled when he wasn't—and was still a force on the field.

Dallas and defensive line guru Rod Marinelli at No. 4. Jacksonville and head coach Gus Bradley at No. 5. Bosa would be an excellent fit in both spots.

Oh, and the Cowboys are badly in need of help at the position after both Randy Gregory and Demarcus Lawrence were suspended to open the 2016 season.

Others receiving votes: DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon (1 vote)

The Matt Millen Memorial 'What Were They Thinking?' Pick

Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images

Winner: Any team taking a wide receiver high (5 votes)

There are any number of potential gaffes for NFL teams to make, leaving our panelists with a cornucopia of possibilities for the Millen pick of 2016.

In fact, I was counting on it. I wanted there to be enough dissension for me to join B/R NFL National Lead Writer Matt Miller in a vote for the Browns and, well, whatever they did.

Let's see. A new brain trust. A big trade. Multiple first-round picks. I feel like I've seen this movie before. It ends with me crying into my beer at the end of another losing season.

2012. 2014. 2015. Yep. Seen it before. Go back and look at the list of players the Browns chose with all those picks. Just don't do it shortly before or after eating.

But alas, that wasn't this year's winner. Neither was B/R NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier's belief the Miami Dolphins aren't finished making deals in the first round.

"The Dolphins love treading water. Every one of their additions always comes with a subtraction," Tanier noted. "They traded down with the Eagles to acquire Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso, but now they have nothing at running back. I picture them doing something bold and ridiculous to move back up for Ezekiel Elliott—throwing Cameron Wake into a package, or something like that. It would be the ultimate lateral move, and so very Dolphins."

For B/R NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman, it was a move that has already happened. I can't say I disagree that the Rams' blockbuster move up was unwise. It certainly seems to denote a desperate amount of faith in either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz.

And didn't the Rams just troll the Redskins last December about the RG3 trade? Did that not happen?

Yes, it happened.

No, the "winner" of this year's Millen vote is the prospect of some receiver-needy NFL team convincing itself that Laquon Treadwell or Josh Doctson is worth a pick relatively early in Round 1.

This isn't last year's crop. Or the year before's. The garden isn't barren, but there aren't cucumbers you can beat a man to death with, either.

That may well be the Millen of metaphors. I like it.

Others receiving votes: Anything the Browns do (2 votes), Rams trading up to No. 1 (1 vote), More than three quarterbacks being selected in the first round (1 vote), Dolphins trading up (1 vote)

Pick That Makes Too Much Sense to Actually Happen

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Winner: Ezekiel Elliott to Cowboys (4 votes)

Earlier we discovered that our panel doesn't see a better fit in the first round of the NFL draft than Ezekiel Elliott barreling through holes with a blue star on his hat.

Unfortunately, there are also multiple reasons why this pick won't happen.

For starters, thanks to the personal competition to see who can be the biggest chucklehead between Gregory and Lawrence, the Cowboys are 27 kinds of hard up for pass-rush help. That puts Bosa on the Dallas radar at No. 4.

Also, if the Chargers address either line at No. 3, Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey will still be available. The Cowboys could badly use a boost on the back end as well, and some pundits (including Farrar) feel the Florida State DB is the top overall prospect of 2016:

"

Only one defensive back has ever been selected first overall: Gary Glick of Colorado State, taken with the No. 1 pick in 1956. It hasn’t happened since the merger, and given the Rams’ trade up to take a quarterback with the first pick in 2016, it’s not going to happen this year. But in a league where passing rules the day, DBs are more important than ever, and Glick’s reign alone at the top will come sooner than later. All things being equal, Jalen Ramsey should have had a shot at that first pick this year.

"

Then there's the matter of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones himself telling Machota that the Cowboys don't think the backfield is a priority that has to be addressed early in the 2016 draft:

"

I don't think we have to have a running back at all with [Darren] McFadden, [Alfred] Morris and the possibility of [Lance] Dunbar coming in. ... There are some other running backs who could give you another opportunity to look at the future, but I think everybody has done some good work around here this spring and we're not in a "have to" situation at all on running back.

"

As much as I would have liked to pile on the Browns (won't be a bit surprised if they pass on Paxton Lynch, Connor Cook and every other quarterback who might have a pulse), there are just too many indicators that Elliott's dream spot isn't meant to be.

And fantasy owners wept.

Others receiving votes: Paxton Lynch to Cleveland Browns (2 votes), Carolina Panthers taking a cornerback in Round 1 (1 vote), Paxton Lynch to Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Pharoh Cooper to Carolina Panthers (1 vote), New York Giants taking a linebacker early (1 vote)

Day 3 Diamond in the Rough

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Winner: DeMarcus Ayers, WR, Houston (2 votes)

There are four rounds on the third day of the NFL draft. As such, there is no shortage of players for our panelists to choose from in this category, and the picks were spread out.

Nine players got at least one vote. Tanier cast his for Iowa tight end Henry Krieger Coble because he has a cool name. Like a cookie elf meets Conan.

Actually, he may have had another reason.

"Krieger Coble had a quietly solid Senior Bowl as a receiver, and he's already well-regarded as a blocker. He doesn't project as a six-time Pro Bowler or anything, but he's the kind of tight end who sticks for years because of his versatility and maybe slips in some 40- to 50-catch seasons. In a really bad tight end class, he's someone worth quietly slipping onto a roster."

However, only one youngster earned multiple votes, and in many ways, Houston wideout DeMarcus Ayers is a surprise choice.

After all, we're talking about a 5'9" receiver who couldn't break 4.7 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the combine. A junior who one NFL personnel director thinks should have stayed in school, according to Zierlein: "Should have gone back to school and worked on his craft. Right now I don't think he can distinguish himself enough from others at that same position. I need to see those system guys transcend the scheme and I didn't see it."

However, as Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle reported, Ayers, who caught 98 passes for over 1,200 yards for the Cougars in 2015, was pleased after he improved on that 40 time at Houston's pro day: "I did better than the combine. I had a great day. I showed I can run all the routes. I got good feedback from the scouts. They like my game. I'm comfortable with everything I did. I was very impressed with the way I caught the ball."

Ayers will be even more pleased if Freeman and Miller (the writers who selected him) wind up being right—especially around the time he signs his second contract.

Others receiving votes: Tyler Matakevich, LB, Temple (1 vote), B.J. Goodson, LB, Clemson (1 vote), Jordan Payton, WR, UCLA (1 vote), Aaron Burbridge, WR, Michigan State (1 vote), Rashard Robinson, CB, LSU (1 vote), Jonathan Jones, CB, Auburn (1 vote), Henry Krieger Coble, TE, Iowa (1 vote), Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State (1 vote)

7th-Round Star

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Winner: Wendall Williams, WR, University of the Cumberlands (3 votes)

If you think picking a Day 3 diamond in the rough is hard, try selecting a player from the draft's last round who has a real chance at making an impact in the NFL.

Will there be players from that round who stick on NFL teams? Players who might go on to be starters or even stars in the NFL? Sure.

Do we know who they are yet? Not even a little bit.

Still, it helps when a player—any player—does something that separates himself from the pack.

And boy oh boy did Wendall Williams of the University of the Cumberlands (yes, it's a real school...I think) separate himself from the pack at his regional combine.

In addition to posting a 45-inch vertical leap that ties the highest mark ever set at the "regular" combine in Indianapolis, the 5'10", 170-pounder also ran a 4.19 40-yard dash.

You read that right—4.19 seconds. A half-tenth of a second faster than Chris Johnson's combine record of 4.24 seconds.

But wait! Per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk, there's more:

"

Those numbers are so shocking that they sound unbelievable at first. But Williams was a track and field star who won the NAIA national championship in the long jump and was fourth in the country in both the 100 meters and 200 meters, so there’s little doubt that he’s a phenomenal athlete.

He also put up phenomenal numbers on the football field: He was an NAIA All-American while averaging 30.5 yards per catch (with eight touchdowns), 32.4 yards per kickoff return (with three touchdowns), 23.5 yards per punt return (with one touchdown) and 17.6 yards per carry (with three touchdowns).

"

Now, to say that there's a jump in competition from the NAIA to the NFL is like saying there's a jump in competition from putt-putt to the PGA Tour.

But jumping and running appear to be things Williams is good at.

And that's good enough for us.

Others receiving votes: Peyton Barber, RB, Auburn (1 vote), DeAndre Washington, RB, Texas Tech (1 vote), Johnathan Gray, RB, Texas (1 vote), Daniel Braverman, WR, Western Michigan (1 vote), Moritz Boehringer, WR, Schwabisch Hall, German Football League (1 vote), Boomer Mays, LB, Northern Illinois (1 vote), Bobby Boucher, LB, SCLSU (1 vote)

No. 1 Overall Pick

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Winner: Jared Goff, QB, California (9 votes)

Much of the drama went out of this pick the moment the Los Angeles Rams mortgaged their future to trade up to No. 1.

You don't sell your soul for a left tackle or a safety. The first player taken is going to be a quarterback. The quarterback that the Rams hope will lead their franchise for years to come.

As news of the trade was first breaking, speculation grew that North Dakota State's Carson Wentz was the pick. Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times tweeted that the Rams were "targeting" the 6'5", 237-pounder. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com mocked Wentz to the Rams shortly after the deal was done.

However, the winds have shifted as the draft has neared. More and more reports have begun to circulate that Cal's Jared Goff, and not Wentz, was the player the Rams went all-in for.

Now, as Mark Eckel of NJ.com reported, NFL sources appear more convinced than ever that Goff is the guy. Sources from four separate teams said as much, with one calling it a "done deal."

Tony Pauline of Draft Insider (via the Eagles official website) did some speculating of his own—that the only reason we don't already know who the top pick will be is that the NFL doesn't want us to know:

"

I’m told that while the Los Angeles Rams know which quarterback they will select, presumably Jared Goff of Cal, don’t expect an official announcement until sometime Thursday. Sources tell me while the Rams want to go through final checks and balances before publicly announcing the pick, there’s a belief the league is pressuring the franchise to hold off on making an announcement until the first day of the draft. The NFL Draft has become such big business that the league hopes to build speculation around who will ultimately end up as the top selection.

"

Dang you, Roger Goodell. Party pooper.

Is it a mortal lock that Goff will be the call?

No. In fact, Boomer Esiason told WHIP Radio in Philadelphia he still believes Wentz will be the guy whose name is called first: "I still think it's going to be Wentz and then Goff. If you are in love with the guy, and that's the guy you really want, you go and get him. In this day and age of a quarterback-driven league, you have to find somebody you think can be the long-term solution."

Another ex-quarterback in Bleacher Report's Chris Simms joins Esiason in that belief, but he's the only member of our panel who does.

The rest believe Wentz will have to wait to hear Goodell call his name. Probably all of about five minutes.

Personally, I'm a Wentz guy. I like his size, athleticism—which is better than many think—and his ability to progress through his reads. I was happy that the Rams appear to prefer Goff. As a Browns fan, it meant Cleveland getting the player I wanted it to.

Then the Browns heard a fan was happy and traded the pick away, because they can't have happy fans.

Not that I'm bitter or anything.

Others receiving votes: Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State (1 vote)