Stock Watch Update for Novak Djokovic's Biggest Challengers at 2016 French Open
Novak Djokovic’s long-suffering quest to win the French Open really begins now. After conquering Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami for 17 career titles, the Serbian superstar packs his bags for Europe and the most important stretch of his future legacy.
It’s really now or never for Djokovic in 2016 to finally seize his Holy Grail, the Musketeers Cup that has proven to be a mirage.
He’s been so agonizingly close, but for years longtime rival Rafael Nadal guarded the red clay with the ferocity of a hydra, always regenerating when it came time to claim Roland Garros. Down but not out, Nadal might have one more legendary effort, but the firepower clearly belongs to Djokovic.
There are other worthy contenders who could rise up to thwart Djokovic’s quest. These are the most dangerous players on a given match who could feasibly make Djokovic earn every point, if not pull off an astonishing upset. Djokovic is all too aware of the way bullish Stan Wawrinka defeated him, from one set down, to capture the 2015 French Open title.
We count down the top five contenders.
5. David Goffin
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Maybe Milos Raonic is more dangerous, but there have been recent concerns with injury problems, and the big serving machine does not realistically possess the footwork and game to win the French Open.
Nick Kyrgios is certainly capable of playing spoiler, but he battles himself too much and has not shown the kind of patience to grind out a huge title on clay. For now, he’s on the outside looking in.
There are other retreaded veterans like Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer, but they have had too many scars trying to get through Djokovic; their collective belief may not be enough to topple the Serb.
We give the surprising nod to steady David Goffin, who has been quietly raising his game even as he has crashed the gates for back-to-back semifinals appearances at Masters 1000 tournaments.
Goffin, at roughly 5’11” and 150 pounds showed he could pack enough punch to stay with Djokovic in the Miami semifinal, but can he develop more big-match experience to win pressure points at Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome?
Goffin’s one to watch, and if he doesn’t possess big weapons, he plays a pleasing game of tactical tennis in moving his opponents and looking for the proper opening. A little more punch and poise could be all the difference in the world.
4. Andy Murray
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He’s the No. 2-ranked player, but it feels like ages since Andy Murray has played his best tennis. Even so, it’s rarely been enough to defeat the current version of Novak Djokovic. Throw in the red-clay surface, and it’s a bigger tilt toward Djokovic because the Serb can generate more power and ways of punching through the court.
There’s another simple technical mismatch: If Murray must win big points on his second serve, he is doomed against the great return-abilities of Djokovic.
Like Roger Federer (who has been sidelined since Melbourne), Murray’s having a hard time holding on to the Serbian Express. It doesn’t get any easier to believe he can do it on a major stage like the French Open, where he has not had as much success.
Glass full? Murray did win Madrid last year, and he pushed Djokovic to five sets in the French Open semifinals. The reason that he’s slipped down to No. 4 for this ranking is that he has not played well lately, but if he finds his form, he could get on a roll and contend for the crown.
3. Rafael Nadal
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Is Rafael Nadal overrated as the No. 3 contender to Djokovic? It seems inconceivable that the King of Clay, who won nine French Open titles from 2005-2014, might only have a puncher’s chance.
There are still a few things to like about his game. His abilities on clay are undisputed, and his best skills from sliding, trunk rotation and heavy topspin will all be enhanced here. He has more time on defense and returns, and there will always be those feelings of championship success. If he gets on a roll, he could get through the rest of the field.
But there’s still the 172-pound elephant in the room. How in the world can Nadal defeat Djokovic?
Djokovic’s game is geared to outhit, outlast and overwhelm the Spaniard from his superior serve to his punishing backhand. He’s been the one player who can consistently push Nadal around from one corner to the next and make him pay for anything that drops short.
Perhaps even more importantly, Djokovic respects Nadal too much to let up on him. When Nadal does play well, Djokovic bears down and closes him out, usually in lopsided fashion.
So it won’t be easy, but somehow the King of Clay could have another great run or two left. If so, it figures to be this clay-court season.
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2. Dominic Thiem
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He probably doesn’t need added pressure and expectations, but young Dominic Thiem might now be ready to win some big-time titles on clay. Already the holder of four clay titles and a level-500 hard-court title at Mexico to boot, the Austrian has the physical tools to be a legitimate threat to the mighty Djokovic.
Thiem’s rise to No. 14 begins with his toughness and durability. Nobody wins often on clay unless he has the mental fortitude to grind and outlast opponents with long points and matches. He’s had plenty of three-set matches, often when he has shown the confidence to come back and fight. He’s not the type to pack up his bags if he gets off to a slow start against anyone.
His strength and power is impressive. Thiem has the ability to hit through the court, and he showed that he could pressure and trouble Djokovic. His one-handed backhand produces plenty of whirling topspin power, and he’s versatile in creating quicker angles. He’s got excellent serving power, and now he just needs to locate and control the service box with more savvy.
Thiem's return game has improved a great deal, but his duel with Djokovic at Miami had him producing 15 break-point chances in two sets. Had Thiem capitalized on more than one break, he could have turned the match into a war, the kind of war that could be very possible after a few more weeks of seasoning at Europe’s three clay Masters 1000 tournaments from April to May.
Could Thiem rise up and win the French Open? It's Djokovic's world, but it’s very possible for Thiem to crash the party.
1. Stan Wawrinka
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Been there. Done that.
No matter what else can be said about Stan Wawrinka, he’s the 2015 French Open champion, and he did it by defeating Novak Djokovic in the final with a powerful, bruising display of near-perfect tennis. For about a two-hour stretch from the second through the fourth set, Wawrinka saved break points, powered through big moments and marched into history.
Can he do it again? Yes, but it’s not likely. Things have to go your way when you are an inconsistent player who relies on high-risk, high-reward groundstrokes. He can beat Djokovic, but it’s more likely he could fall to many other top players if he springs a leak.
He’s also struggled in 2016, and once again he’s in the position of being written off—kind of the way things stood in 2015.
But Wawrinka is no afterthought. He’s battled Djokovic in several major classics, and his two wins led to major championships.
This could be his last great chance. The clock is ticking for the 31-year-old Swiss, but it’s all the more reason to appreciate and understand that he must persevere when the occasion calls for another great run. Unless he falls off the map in the next month, he is the No. 1 challenger, even if he is the defending champion.
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