MLB's Biggest Playoff Race X-Factors as 2016 Season Gets Underway
Every potential MLB contender has an X-factor as the 2016 season gets underway.
Whether it's a promising young player being counted on to step into a significant role, a team upgrading a specific area that was previously a weakness, an injured player getting and staying healthy, or something else altogether, every club has a certain factor that could make the difference in its playoff aspirations.
These X-factors could obviously change as the season progresses and new areas of need or weakness pop up, but for now this will give you an idea of what to keep an eye on here in the early going.
With that in mind, let's dive into some potential playoff-race X-factors in the early stages of the 2016 MLB season.
No X-Factors Can Make These Teams Contenders
1 of 25
While every team in the American League looks to have at least an outside chance of contending if everything breaks right, the same can't be said on the National League side of things.
Even in a best-case scenario, the following six teams don't look to have a real chance of making the playoffs this season:
- Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds
- Colorado Rockies
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Philadelphia Phillies
- San Diego Padres
As a result, they're not included in the following article, but fans can at least be excited for the prospect talent that will likely arrive on the scene for those rebuilding teams this year.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 25
X-Factor: Yasmany Tomas in his second big league season
Yasmany Tomas was a hot commodity when he hit the free-agent market as a Cuban defector prior to the 2014 season, and the Arizona Diamondbacks eventually won his services with a six-year, $68.5 million deal.
His rookie season fell short of expectations, though, as he hit .273/.305/.401 over 426 plate appearances and displayed poor defense in the outfield that resulted in a minus-1.3 WAR.
Now with Ender Inciarte traded to the Atlanta Braves and A.J. Pollock shelved indefinitely following elbow surgery, the Diamondbacks are counting on Tomas in an everyday capacity.
The plus raw power that made him so highly sought after is still there, and as he enters his age-25 season there's reason to believe he could take a significant step forward.
The early returns have been great, as he's gone 3-for-7 with two doubles and three RBI in the first two games of the new season.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 25
X-Factor: Kevin Gausman in an otherwise uninspiring rotation
The Baltimore Orioles' big issue last season was keeping runs off the board, specifically when it came to their starting pitchers. Their 4.53 starters' ERA checked in at 25th in the majors.
The team added Yovani Gallardo in free agency during the offseason, but that was more damage control than anything else, as Baltimore also lost its best starter from a year ago when Wei-Yin Chen signed with the Miami Marlins.
However, Kevin Gausman is one pitcher who could make a real difference in Baltimore if he finally realizes his potential.
The No. 4 pick in the 2012 draft, Gausman has gone 11-14 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 225.2 innings of work over the past two seasons, but the Orioles have been careful with his workload.
The 25-year-old is working his way through shoulder tendinitis, but he's expected back later this month and has lofty expectations for himself this year.
As he told Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun in March, "I think they're taking the reins off me, so I'm finally going to be able to just go and compete and not worry about an innings limit or giving me an extra day's rest, so I'm definitely looking forward to it. I know I need to have a big year and everybody is expecting that out of me. I'm expecting that of myself, too."
A big year from Gausman would go a long way in helping the Orioles' chances in the AL East, and the front-line potential is undoubtedly there.
.png?w=256)
Boston Red Sox
4 of 25
X-Factor: The starting rotation behind new ace David Price
Adding David Price on a record seven-year, $217 million deal gives the Boston Red Sox the ace they lacked for much of last season, but he's still only going to be pitching every fifth day.
It's up to the rest of the starting rotation behind him to determine just how good the team can be as the Red Sox look to make the climb from worst to first.
Here's a look at the rest of their rotation to start the year, along with their 2015 stats:
- Clay Buchholz: 18 GS, 7-7, 3.26 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 107 K, 113.1 IP
- Joe Kelly: 25 GS, 10-6, 4.82 ERA, 1.444 WHIP, 110 K, 134.1 IP
- Rick Porcello: 28 GS, 9-15, 4.92 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 149 K, 172.0 IP
- Steven Wright: 9 GS, 5-4, 4.09 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 52 K, 72.2 IP
The big missing piece here is left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who suffered a knee injury during spring training and is still working his way back to the mound.
The 23-year-old Rodriguez has the highest ceiling of any of the Red Sox starters behind Price, and another step forward into the No. 2 spot in the rotation from him would go a long way.
At any rate, some combination of four arms will need to string together quality starts behind Price this season if the Red Sox are going to be a legitimate factor in the AL East race.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 25
X-Factor: John Lackey as a third front-line starter
The Chicago Cubs' lack of a proven No. 3 starter was exposed during their run to the postseason last year, and the hope is that adding veteran John Lackey will rectify that situation.
Lackey turned in one of the best seasons of his 13-year career in 2015, going 13-10 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.211 WHIP and 175 strikeouts in 218 innings.
He was able to parlay that performance into a two-year, $32 million contract with the Cubs, despite the fact that he'll play out the 2016 season at the age of 37.
While we can expect some regression from his fantastic numbers from a year ago, Lackey still has good stuff and a bulldog mentality that has served him well in the postseason throughout his career.
In 127.1 career playoff innings, he has gone 8-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.217 WHIP, and the Cubs hope he can continue that October magic as their No. 3 playoff starter this year.
Jason Hammel is a quality back-end starter, and Kyle Hendricks still has room to improve after an up-and-down season last year, but getting a front-line performance out of Lackey in the No. 3 spot looks like the biggest X-factor for the North Siders.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 25
X-Factor: Carlos Rodon as a potential front-line starter
On the surface, Carlos Rodon had a so-so first season in the big leagues.
He finished up his rookie year at 9-6 with a 3.75 ERA but was plagued by control issues, as evidenced by a rate of 4.6 walks per nine innings, which led to a 1.443 WHIP.
However, a closer look at his progression through the season paints a picture of a pitcher on the rise.
After starting the season at 4-4 with a 5.00 ERA through his first 18 appearances, he turned a corner with a brilliant performance against the Los Angeles Angels on Aug. 11, allowing just four hits over seven shutout innings while striking out 11.
Including that start, he would finish the season 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA, 1.079 WHIP and, perhaps most importantly, a 3.5 BB/9 rate as he began to dial in his command.
The continued development of his changeup as a third reliable pitch along with his fastball-slider combination will be a major factor in his long-term outlook.
There's no doubt he has the potential to join Chris Sale as a second ace-caliber arm for a White Sox team that is looking to climb into the AL Central hunt after a disappointing 2015.
Cleveland Indians
7 of 25
X-Factor: A healthy season from Michael Brantley
Michael Brantley is not only the best hitter on the Cleveland Indians roster, but he was also one of the best players in all of baseball during the 2014 season.
Fresh off inking a four-year, $25 million extension, Brantley hit .327/.385/.506 with 45 doubles, 20 home runs, 97 RBI and 23 stolen bases to finish third in AL MVP voting and establish himself as one of the game's budding stars.
A nagging shoulder injury sapped some of his power last season, but he still finished fourth in the AL with a .310 batting average while lacing 45 doubles.
The 28-year-old underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and is still rehabbing that shoulder here in April, but he's expected to be back in the lineup in the near future.
With one of the best rotations in baseball and a strong bullpen, it will be the offense that decides how good the Indians can be in 2016, and Brantley is the key to their attack.
Detroit Tigers
8 of 25
X-Factor: An improved bullpen
A rough performance Tuesday notwithstanding, the Detroit Tigers relief corps looks to be significantly improved after ranking among the worst in baseball several years running.
Here's a look at where the Detroit bullpen has ranked the past few seasons:
- 2013: 4.01 ERA, 24th in MLB
- 2014: 4.29 ERA, 27th in MLB
- 2015: 4.38 ERA, 27th in MLB
During that time, the front office simply didn't make upgrading the bullpen a priority, aside from the addition of Joe Nathan on a two-year, $20 million deal that proved to be a flop.
That changed this winter with the additions of Mark Lowe, Justin Wilson and Francisco Rodriguez, three bullpen arms coming off terrific seasons in 2015:
- Lowe: 57 G, 17 HLD, 1.96 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 10.0 K/9
- Wilson: 74 G, 29 HLD, 3.10 ERA, 1.131 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
- Rodriguez: 60 G, 38 SV, 2.21 ERA, 0.860 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
K-Rod allowed four hits and three earned runs while blowing the save in his Tigers debut Tuesday, but after converting 82 of 89 save chances over the past two seasons, he gets the benefit of the doubt for the time being.
The Tigers should have one of the better offenses in the AL and an improved starting rotation, so keep an eye on the new-look bullpen as their biggest X-factor.
Houston Astros
9 of 25
X-Factor: A healthy season from George Springer
After suffering a quad injury during his rookie season and a fractured wrist last year, George Springer has teased with his big-time potential but has yet to truly author a breakout season.
He appeared to be on the cusp last year after a huge month of June in which he hit .321/.387/.518 with 10 extra-base hits and 19 runs scored, but a pitch broke his wrist on July 1 and sidelined him for the next two months.
Healthy once again, the 26-year-old now lines up as one of the biggest breakout candidates of 2016, as Bleacher Report's Jacob Shafer highlighted in an article last month.
The Astros offense should also receive a boost from an extra two months of Carlos Correa, who debuted last June, and a full season of Carlos Gomez, who they picked up at the deadline, but Springer with his impressive mix of power and speed is the team's biggest X-factor.
"We talk a lot about the type of athletes we've got," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told David Borges of the New Haven Register. "I don't know that we've got a better combination of power and speed and athleticism than George."
Kansas City Royals
10 of 25
X-Factor: Kris Medlen in his full-time return to the rotation
Kris Medlen is an interesting case as a 30-year-old pitcher who could potentially be poised for a surprise performance.
The right-hander first flashed big-time potential with the Atlanta Braves in 2012. That year, he began the season in the bullpen but moved to the rotation at the end of July and went 9-0 with a 0.97 ERA in 12 starts to close out the season.
He followed that up by going 15-12 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.223 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 197 innings in 2013, but that's been the only full season of starting in his career. He missed the entire 2014 season recovering from the second Tommy John surgery of his career.
The Kansas City Royals took a chance on him last year with a two-year, $8.5 million deal that includes a $10 million option for 2017, and he returned to action in July.
He went on to post a 4.01 ERA in 58.1 innings of work over eight starts and seven relief appearances, and Ned Yost has given him a rotation spot out of the gates in 2016.
"I think he's going to have a fantastic year," Royals manager Ned Yost told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. "He's going to be a very solid guy in our rotation."
Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young and Ian Kennedy make up the rest of a Royals rotation that will need to perform if the team hopes to return to the World Series, but Medlen looks like the X-factor of the staff.
Los Angeles Angels
11 of 25
X-Factor: C.J. Cron as a middle-of-the-order run producer
To be blunt, the Los Angeles Angels selected C.J. Cron with the No. 17 pick in the 2011 draft because of his bat.
He posted a 1.169 OPS and slugged 46 home runs in three seasons at the University of Utah, and then he continued to rake every step of the way in the minors before debuting with the Angels in 2014.
The 26-year-old entered the year with a .739 OPS, 29 doubles, 27 home runs and 88 RBI over 657 MLB plate appearances, and bigger things are expected going forward.
Cron will need to improve his plate discipline with a 4.1 percent walk rate and .294 on-base percentage to this point in his career, but the power and run production skills are there for him to be a difference-maker in the middle of the lineup.
The Angels featured the highest-scoring offense in baseball during the 2014 season but slid all the way to 20th in the league in runs scored last year. After the team failed to add an impact bat in the offseason, it will be up to someone in-house to solidify the lineup.
Cron has the potential to be that guy.
Los Angeles Dodgers
12 of 25
X-Factor: The starting rotation behind Clayton Kershaw
The Los Angeles Dodgers still have the consensus best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, but after Zack Greinke walked in free agency, the rest of their rotation is a major question mark.
While they failed to land a front-line starter to replace Greinke, they did sign a pair of free agents to bolster the staff in Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir.
Those two were expected to join Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger in the rotation to open the year, but Anderson underwent back surgery and Bolsinger suffered an oblique strain. Just like that, the depth that was supposed to be a strength was gone.
As a result, bounce-back candidate Alex Wood and rookie Ross Stripling round out the rotation to begin the year, leaving the team with a staff of mid-level starters and an unproven mid-level prospect to flank Kershaw.
Along with the eventual returns of Anderson and Bolsinger, the Dodgers are awaiting a return to health from both Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy, so if they can just keep their heads above water early, they should be in a good position later on.
Still, that's a lot of moving parts for a team that expects to contend for a division title, and it will be up to the rotation to deliver on those expectations.
Miami Marlins
13 of 25
X-Factor: Jarred Cosart and Adam Conley at the back of the rotation
You'd be right to say keeping Giancarlo Stanton healthy is probably the top priority for the Miami Marlins this season, but their biggest X-factors reside at the back of the rotation.
Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen are expected to be a strong one-two punch at the top, and while Tom Koehler doesn't offer much in the way of upside, he's a solid innings eater and a capable middle-of-the-rotation arm.
However, it's unclear exactly what the club can expect out of Jarred Cosart and Adam Conley.
Cosart has plus stuff with a good cut fastball-curveball combination, and he showed some real potential in 2014 when he went 13-11 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.364 WHIP over 180.1 innings of work.
However, he still lacks a reliable third offering, and his career rate of 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings is poor for a starter.
He struggled with effectiveness and a bout of vertigo last season to only throw 69.2 innings at the MLB level, and the Marlins need him to at least hold down a rotation spot in 2016.
As for Conley, he offers far more in the way of upside after going 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 11 starts and four relief appearances as a rookie.
The 25-year-old won a rotation spot with a strong spring, and he has power stuff from the left side that gives him a chance to develop into a front-line starter.
"He's just a guy right now who looks like he knows what he wants to do on every pitch, and pitching confidently," manager Don Mattingly told Joe Frisaro of MLB.com during spring training. "That's a big thing. Just the way he's gone about his business."
Minnesota Twins
14 of 25
X-Factor: The eventual arrival of Jose Berrios
The Minnesota Twins were arguably the biggest surprise in baseball last season when they finished with an 83-79 record after being picked by most to finish in the AL Central cellar.
They managed to stay in contention into the second half of the season, but a lack of consistent starting pitching proved to be their undoing. They finished 16th in the majors with a 4.14 starters' ERA.
After spending big money on Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana the previous two offseasons, the team opted against making any significant additions to the pitching staff this past winter.
That leaves the Twins with essentially the same group of starters as they had a year ago:
- Ervin Santana: 17 GS, 7-5, 4.00 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 82 K, 108.0 IP
- Kyle Gibson: 32 GS, 11-11, 3.84 ERA, 1.289 WHIP, 145 K, 194.2 IP
- Phil Hughes: 25 GS, 11-9, 4.40 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, 94 K, 155.1 IP
- Tommy Milone: 23 GS, 9-5, 3.92 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 91 K, 128.2 IP
- Ricky Nolasco: 8 GS, 5-2, 6.75 ERA, 1.714 WHIP, 35 K, 37.1 IP
However, help is on the way in the form of top prospect Jose Berrios.
The 21-year-old split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, going 14-5 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.046 WHIP and 175 strikeouts in 166.1 innings.
That's earned him a spot among the top prospects in all of baseball, with Baseball America (No. 28), MLB.com (No. 18) and Baseball Prospectus (No. 17) all ranking him inside the top 30.
He could be in Minnesota before the All-Star break, and he might be the best starter on the roster from the get-go.
New York Mets
15 of 25
X-Factor: Michael Conforto as an impact run producer
Michael Conforto was somewhat lost in the shuffle of a historically good rookie class last year, but the young outfielder has a chance to be a star in his own right for the New York Mets.
The 23-year-old hit .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, nine home runs and 26 RBI in 194 plate appearances as a rookie, and he capped off the season by going 5-for-15 with two home runs in the World Series.
After hitting just .214 with a .481 OPS in limited exposure to left-handed pitching last season, he'll begin the year as a platoon player, as Juan Lagares will spell him in the lineup against lefties.
However, that could change as the season progresses, as Conforto has a chance to be a real difference-maker as a run producer alongside Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda in the middle of the lineup.
Just how good can Conforto be?
"I had Robinson Cano, and he went from the eighth hole to the seventh hole to the sixth hole and eventually he became a No. 3 hitter. I think Conforto is going to be similar to that," Mets hitting coach Kevin Long told Fred Kerber of the New York Post.
To his credit, Conforto seems just as hungry now as he was when he was fighting his way through the minors a year ago.
"Last year at this time, I wanted to see how far I could go and was told there really wasn't room on the big league team. We all see how quickly those things can change," he told Kerber. "... This year is different but I want to keep that same mentality to make sure I'm not taking anything for granted."
New York Yankees
16 of 25
X-Factor: The boom-or-bust starting rotation
With an offense that ranked second in the majors in runs scored a year ago and a bullpen that's expected to be one of the best in baseball behind the three-headed monster they've assembled in the late innings, it all boils down to starting pitching for the New York Yankees.
Last year, the team placed 19th in the majors with a 4.25 starters' ERA, but the concerns go beyond on-field production.
Masahiro Tanaka is still pitching with a partially torn UCL in his elbow that could escalate to Tommy John surgery at any point, and Michael Pineda has yet to prove he can make it through a full season.
Then there's CC Sabathia, who hasn't been a good starter since 2012 but is still on the books for $25 million this season.
Nathan Eovaldi has plus-plus stuff and is a candidate to take a step forward, but he's struggled to miss bats throughout his career and has yet to perform as anything beyond a No. 4/5 starter.
Finally, there's 22-year-old Luis Severino, who is already the team's best pitcher and could be one of the best in the American League by season's end if he continues on his current trajectory.
He went 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.203 WHIP and 56 strikeouts in 62.1 innings last season and is set for a bigger role in 2016, but chances are the team is going to cut his innings off at some point.
If everything breaks right, the Yankees could have a plus rotation, but there are "ifs" across the board as of now.
Oakland Athletics
17 of 25
X-Factor: A vastly improved bullpen
The Oakland Athletics bullpen was a complete dumpster fire in 2015.
They finished 28th in the majors and last in the AL with a 4.63 ERA and in the process converted just 28 of 53 save chances.
That all added up to a dismal 19-35 record in one-run games, which played a significant role in the team's last-place finish in the AL West and 68-94 record overall.
This season closer Sean Doolittle is back healthy after injuries limited him to just 12 appearances last year, and he's joined by a new case of bullpen arms.
Oakland signed veterans Ryan Madson and John Axford as free agents and acquired hard-throwing Liam Hendriks and oft-used lefty Marc Rzepczynski via trade.
If that new group can fall into place and turn the relief corps into a strength once again, it would help take some pressure off a young rotation behind ace Sonny Gray and free-agent addition Rich Hill.
The A's have their work cut out for them in clawing their way back into contention in the AL West, but an improved bullpen will go a long way toward at least making them competitive.
Pittsburgh Pirates
18 of 25
X-Factor: The eventual return of Jung Ho Kang
The Pittsburgh organization and the baseball world in general weren't sure what the Pirates were getting when they signed Korean slugger Jung Ho Kang to a four-year, $11 million contract last offseason.
After hitting .356/.459/.739 with 40 home runs and 117 RBI for the Nexen Heroes in 2014, he became the first position player to make the jump from the KBO to MLB, and it's fair to say he exceeded expectations as a rookie.
He started off in a utility role but quickly played his way into regular at-bats while splitting his time between shortstop and third base.
The end result was a .287/.355/.461 line with 24 doubles, 15 home runs and 58 RBI over 467 plate appearances, which along with his solid defense at both positions made him a 4.0 WAR player.
However, his season came to an abrupt end on Sept. 17 when he suffered a broken leg on a takeout slide from Chris Coghlan at second base.
He's still working his way back from that injury, and the Pirates signed veteran David Freese to a one-year, $3 million deal to help bridge the gap to his return.
There's no reason to rush him back at this point, but his versatility and powerful bat make the Pirates a better team. In particular, the team needs his pop now more than ever after Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker both departed in the offseason.
Kang played five innings on defense in an extended spring game Wednesday, and he could return before the end of April, according to MLB.com.
San Francisco Giants
19 of 25
X-Factor: A healthy Hunter Pence
Simply rattling off his offensive stats doesn't sum up what Hunter Pence means to the San Francisco Giants.
However, a quick look at the team's win-loss record and run production last season with him in the lineup and without him is eye-opening:
- With Pence: 34-18 (.654), 5.15 runs per game
- Without Pence: 50-60 (.455), 3.89 runs per game
"He's so inspiring to these guys," manager Bruce Bochy told Marcos Breton of the Sacramento Bee. "He's a leader, and it's hard not to miss a player like that. We're a different club with him in the lineup."
Pence had been in the lineup for all 162 games during the 2013 and 2014 seasons, but his injury woes last year began in spring training when he suffered a broken forearm and continued into the regular season when he also missed time with a sore wrist and strained oblique.
There's no one in the game quite like Pence, and his unbridled enthusiasm is a big part of what makes him such an important part of the Giants roster.
"Right now is the best time ever," Pence told Breton during spring training. "The most enthusiastic time in my life is always right now. So this is the most important moment right now."
You can debate the importance of that mid-spring conversation in the grand scheme of things, but there's no questioning his importance to the Giants' success in 2016.
Seattle Mariners
20 of 25
X-Factor: Steve Cishek and Joaquin Benoit at the back of the bullpen
The Seattle Mariners fell one game short of reaching the playoffs in 2014, and the best bullpen in baseball was a big reason for their success.
Led by a terrific season from closer Fernando Rodney, the M's put up a 2.59 bullpen ERA and nailed down 51 of 62 save chances on their way to an 87-win season.
They brought back essentially the same group of guys last year, but the results were decidedly different, starting with Rodney, who struggled early and was finally removed from the closer's role in June.
He was by no means the only one to blame, as the Mariners fell to 25th in bullpen ERA with a 4.15 mark and managed to secure just 45 of 71 save opportunities in the process.
Those struggles made an offseason overhaul inevitable, and after trading Carson Smith, Tom Wilhelmsen and Danny Farquhar, the team eventually decided on Joaquin Benoit and Steve Cishek to anchor the new-look bullpen.
Cishek lost the closer's job and struggled to the point of being demoted by the Marlins last season, but he rebuilt some value after being traded to the Cardinals, and he did post back-to-back 30-plus-save seasons in 2013 and 2014.
Meanwhile, Benoit has spent the bulk of his career as an eighth-inning guy. While that's the role he fills to start the season, he also provides valuable insurance with a 24-save season in 2013 on his resume.
Those two aren't the only newcomers in the Seattle bullpen, but it will be up to them to nail down late-game leads. That makes them the team's biggest X-factors.
St. Louis Cardinals
21 of 25
X-Factor: Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty leading the offense
A lot has been made of the St. Louis Cardinals' lack of offensive firepower in recent years, but their struggles to consistently score runs have been largely offset by a terrific pitching staff.
The pitching staff should be a strength once again this season as Adam Wainwright returns to the rotation, and the bullpen appears to be deeper, but they still need to come up with enough offense to keep pace in a tough NL Central.
Here's where the Cardinals ranked as a team in a few key offensive categories last season:
- Runs Scored: 647, 24th in MLB
- Home Runs: 137, 25th in MLB
- Slugging: .394, 23rd in MLB
That's not great by any means, but it was enough for them to win 100 games thanks to a 2.94 team ERA.
With Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina both another year older and Jhonny Peralta sidelined until midseason with a thumb injury, someone will need to help Matt Carpenter carry the offensive load this season.
Stephen Piscotty (256 PA, .305/.359/.494, 15 2B, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 29 R) and Randal Grichuk (350 PA, .276/.329/.548, 23 2B, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 49 R) both enjoyed standout rookie seasons, and they have a chance to transform the offense if they can maintain that level of production over a full season.
Tampa Bay Rays
22 of 25
X-Factor: Corey Dickerson as a middle-of-the-order run producer
Here's a look at the Tampa Bay Rays' top three run producers last season:
- Evan Longoria: .764 OPS, 21 HR, 73 RBI
- Logan Forsythe: .804 OPS, 17 HR, 68 RBI
- Asdrubal Cabrera: .744 OPS, 15 HR, 58 RBI
No matter how you spin it, that wasn't a trio that was going to scare anyone, and it's not surprising to see that the Rays ranked 25th in the majors and 14th in the AL with 3.98 runs per game.
Always a team that has relied on pitching and defense, the Rays made a serious effort this offseason to improve offensively, and the big addition was outfielder Corey Dickerson.
Acquired from the Rockies in exchange for reliever Jake McGee, Dickerson hit .309/.354/.556 in 712 plate appearances over the past two seasons in Colorado.
Those numbers come with significant home/road splits, but as Mike Petriello of MLB.com wrote in great detail, the "Coors Field effect" often proves to be as big of a detriment to a Rockies hitter's road numbers as it does a boon to the home numbers.
The Rays are hoping that's the case with Dickerson, and he's been penciled into the cleanup spot behind Longoria to start the year. He could finally be the second consistent run producer they've been searching for since the days of Carlos Pena.
Dickerson has already hit a pair of home runs through his first four games, including a 453-foot bomb to the scoreboard at Tropicana Field on Tuesday.
Texas Rangers
23 of 25
X-Factor: A return to front-line form by Yu Darvish
The Texas Rangers suffered a huge blow last spring when Yu Darvish was lost for the year to Tommy John surgery before Opening Day even rolled around.
Despite losing their ace, along with a number of other injury issues, they managed to keep their head above water leading up to the trade deadline. They then pulled the trigger on acquiring Cole Hamels and made a late push to an AL West title.
Now with Hamels in the mix for a full season and Darvish on the mend, they're set up to potentially boast as formidable a one-two punch as any in baseball.
However, it's never a sure thing how quickly a pitcher will return to form in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, and that uncertainty makes Darvish the Rangers' biggest X-factor in 2016.
With a 3.27 ERA, 1.196 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 in 83 career starts, there's little question he was an elite starter pre-injury, and a rapid return to that level could make the Rangers favorites in the AL West.
The 29-year-old threw a 50-pitch bullpen session Tuesday, and he could now be ready to face live hitters, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
Toronto Blue Jays
24 of 25
X-Factor: Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez leading the rotation
With deadline pickup David Price departing in free agency, the Toronto Blue Jays will turn to the young duo of Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez to lead the rotation in 2016.
Veterans R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada make up the rest of the rotation, but it's the two dynamic young starters who could push them over the top.
Stroman was expected to miss the duration of the 2015 season after suffering a torn ACL in spring training, but he made an incredible recovery to go 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts down the stretch before making three more starts in the postseason.
While he's undersized at 5'8", Stroman has ace-caliber stuff and looked the part on Opening Day with eight strong innings of work.
As for Sanchez, he broke camp with a rotation spot last spring but finished the year as the primary setup man.
He allowed just three earned runs in 20 innings of work this spring to win back his rotation spot, and while his game is still a work in progress, he's already made significant strides.
"Given what we've seen of his stamina, his command and his arsenal, there are legit reasons to think this won't work out," wrote Eno Sarris of ESPN.com. "Then again, if you look at what Sanchez has done recently to address each of these issues, the thought of him being a starter is a lot more conceivable."
Both pitchers have front-line potential but a limited track record of success in the majors, making them the biggest X-factors for a Blue Jays team that will need its pitching to step up alongside the juggernaut offense if it hopes to take home a title.
Washington Nationals
25 of 25
X-Factor: A healthy season from Anthony Rendon
Dating back to his time at Rice University, Anthony Rendon has had a tough time staying healthy.
The top college bat in the 2011 draft and a candidate to go No. 1 overall heading into his junior year, he instead slipped to No. 6 after dealing with a shoulder injury.
It didn't take him long to arrive in the majors as he debuted early in the 2013 season, and he quickly established himself as one of the game's best young hitters with a breakout season the following year.
A .287/.351/.473 line with 39 doubles, 21 home runs, 83 RBI, 111 runs scored, 17 stolen bases and plus defense added up to a 6.6 WAR and a fifth-place finish in NL MVP voting in 2014.
The injury issues reared their ugly head again last year, though.
An MCL sprain in his left knee slowed him in spring training, and then he missed more time during the season with an oblique strain and a quad injury, playing a total of 80 games as a result.
The 25-year-old is healthy once again to begin the 2016 season, and a return to his 2014 form would be huge for a Nationals offense that also features reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
