Will Victoria Azarenka Regain the WTA No. 1 Ranking in 2016?

Watching Victoria Azarenka play like the No. 1 player in the WTA is a study in fierceness. She is locked into each point, moving into position to unload with her heavy, screeching groundstrokes. Every ball gets branded with her intensity, and she’s dictating her offense like a runaway locomotive. Get onboard or get out of the way. Azarenka is back on track and streaking into the clay-court season.

There’s so much to appreciate about her sweep of the Sunshine Double—winning Premier Mandatory tournaments Indian Wells and Miami—this month. It’s not just the achievement but the comeback journey that has been completed for the 26-year-old Belarusian. The WTA noted Azarenka is only the third player to win the Sunshine Double:

She’s no longer the rising youngster who captured back-to-back Australian Open titles three long years ago. She lost two prime years to a foot injury and a laborious climb through the rankings to regain her fitness and confidence.

There’s no question she values playing at her best level right now. She understands what she missed, and that’s the chance to be the world's best. Peter Bodo of ESPN wrote about her hunger to play every point.

Above all, Azarenka has handled recent interviews by talking about what she needs to do and not about what the press or others expect her to do, according to comments in her interview with WTA insider Courtney Nguyen.

"The last couple of days especially has been a lot of expectations and pressure from the outside to complete the Sunshine Double and so I'm very proud that I kept myself present, kept myself really focused and focused on the job before anything else."

Her focus is driving her fierceness, and it could soon get her back to the No. 1 ranking.

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Clay is the Thing

The fast track to the No. 1 ranking will require an upgrade on the clay-court swing from April to early June. Azarenka’s not bad on clay. She has reached two quarterfinals and one semifinal at the French Open, but the numbers show a clear drop in her performance.

• She’s won 19 of her 20 titles on hard courts, but she has only one clay-court title in six finals appearances.
• No titles at Madrid, Rome or Roland Garros.
• Her one clay-court title was at the now-defunct Andalucia Tennis Experience in Marbella, Spain. That was 2011.

So there’s something for Azarenka to prove, and she admitted in Kamakshi Tandon's Tennis.com story that she is motivated to evolve on the dry, red dust:

"Going into clay season, people say it's not my favorite surface and whatever, I'm going to work pretty hard to make sure it's going to be my favorite surface. I'm going to put in the work that's needed and the adjustments that's needed."

The WTA Rankings list the top five as follows:

1. Serena Williams             8625 points
2. Angelique Kerber           6025 points
3. Agnieszka Radwanska    5775 points
4. Garbine Muguruza          4831 points
5. Victoria Azarenka           4530 points

 Let’s look at the gap between Serena and Azarenka for Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros.

• Serena is defending 390, 105 and 2,000 points, respectively. That’s 2495 points.
• Azarenka is defending 120, 190 and 130 points, respectively. That’s 440 points.

Both players could very well score higher at Madrid and Rome, and certainly in 2016 Azarenka won’t be losing to Serena in Madrid’s round of 16, Maria Sharapova in Rome’s quarterfinals and Serena in the French Open’s third round. Her improved seeding helps her avoid these kinds of death paths early enough in draws.

If Azarenka can pick up 2,000 points in those three tournaments and Serena goes out early at the French Open, they could be neck-to-neck heading into Wimbledon where Serena will have to defend another 2000 points.

It’s a long shot right now, and it requires Azarenka to become dominant on clay, which is definitely unproven. Also, Serena will not likely drop too much unless age, fatigue or grinding clay neutralize a lot of her energy and power.

But by Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, Azarenka could be ready to reign at the top for the first time since February 17, 2013, which was the last time Serena was not ranked No. 1.

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Emerging WTA Talent

Azarenka will need to do more than slide and defend better on clay. The top of the WTA has shown inconsistency among its stars, but it has also opened up a dangerous spread of talented veterans and newcomers.

How tough will it be to knock off major-winning Kerber whose speed, defensive tenacity and grit is a force to be reckoned with?

Other southpaws like clay-courter Lucie Safarova and powerful Petra Kvitova could snatch up important titles and ranking points.

Then there is Spaniard Muguruza who has been brought up on clay. She’s had a rough start to 2016; Europe’s three big clay tournaments could be the antidote.

What about hardworking retriever Simona Halep, who is seemingly forgotten with recent subpar results? She’s a French Open finalist and could be a big winner if she gets back to playing with her best form and confidence.

Veteran Radwanska and youngsters Belinda Bencic and Madison Keys bring their own particular skills to big tournaments, and they will be determined adversaries.

So nobody’s going to roll out the red carpet for "Queen Victoria," and she wouldn’t have it any other way. All she can do is control her training and efforts in each match.

Play each point. Keep that focus. Set it up and let it rip.

The road to the top will require countless steps and big strokes. If Azarenka challenges the great Serena, she will need to move and parry with powerful precision on clay.