Fact or Fiction on 2016 MLB Opening Day Instant Overreactions
Baseball is back, and if the first two days of the 2016 regular season are any indication, fans are in for one heck of a year. Late-inning rallies, superhuman defensive plays (we're looking at you, Kevin Pillar) and no-doubt home runs littered the Opening Day landscape.
But Opening Day also leads to crazy overreactions, some positive, some negative. Small sample sizes be damned—one game is all some people need to conclude that a team expected to contend has no chance of doing so, or that a star player is over the hill and should be discarded by the postgame cleanup crews.
Has everyone focused on the wrong shortstop as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year? Is a typically reliable ace dealing with a serious injury? Does common sense exist among some of baseball's decision-makers?
We'll hit on all of that and more in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.
Fact: Daniel Murphy's Power Is Real
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Daniel Murphy wasted little time making his presence felt in Washington, going 2-for-3 with a home run, two RBI, two walks and what would prove to be a game-winning double in his regular-season debut for the Nationals.
Coming on the heels of Murphy's remarkable postseason power surge for the New York Mets last season, it'd be easy to think one of two things: Either Murphy has figured out the secret to hitting for power after the age of 30, or he's continuing to get incredibly lucky and it's all going to come crashing down soon.
The truth is that Murphy has been hitting for power for years. It's just that most people have been looking at the wrong indicators.
Murphy hit 48 home runs from 2011 to 2015, a total that ranks 40th among the 45 position players that have made at least 2,900 plate appearances over the past five years. But his .421 slugging percentage ranks 31st among the same group, nine spots higher. How is that possible?
It's because contrary to popular opinion, power is not only measured by home runs. While Murphy isn't likely to go deep 20 times during the regular season (he set a career-high with 14 last season), he's a lock for 35 to 40 doubles a year.
Hitting fifth in Washington's lineup, with Ben Revere, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman ahead of him, Murphy is going to step to the plate with a runner on base more often than not. With his penchant for two-baggers, he's going to produce plenty of runs.
Murphy may go about flashing his power differently than other players, but it's real. And while it's not spectacular, it'll be more than enough to make Washington's decision to sign Murphy look like one of the better moves of the offseason.
Fiction: There's Something Seriously Wrong with Madison Bumgarner
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In the first inning of San Francisco's 12-3 Opening Day victory over Milwaukee, Madison Bumgarner issued a free pass to the free-swinging Chris Carter, walking in a run. Per ESPN Stats & Info, it was only the second bases-loaded walk he's ever issued (and his first since 2011).
An inning later, Scooter Gennett, Milwaukee's 5'10", 185-pound second baseman, who has hit 21 home runs over parts of three seasons—none against left-handed pitching—took Bumgarner deep. Per ESPN Stats & Info, it was the first Opening Day home run he's ever allowed.
Throw Bumgarner's rough spring (11.12 ERA, 2.12 WHIP) into the mix, and clearly something must be seriously wrong with the Giants' ace, right? If you consider the flu to be serious, well, you'd be right.
"Bumgarner sounded terrible," tweeted the Bay Area News Group's Andrew Baggarly after the game. "Legitimately sick today." That certainly didn't help his mechanics, which he revealed to the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman during spring training haven't been right since last season.
It was unquestionably a rough start to the season for Bumgarner, but it's one start. It should take far more than that for anyone to start thinking, much less believing, that the 26-year-old is following Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum down the road to irrelevance.
Fact: Baseball Should Stay South (or Inside) to Start the Season
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Weather-related delays and cancellations are as much a part of baseball as hot dogs and Cracker Jack. In the grand scheme of things, two postponed games and a third that dealt with a pair of rain delays isn't the worst thing that could have happened on Opening Day.
"If it's raining, it's raining," remarked Houston's Carlos Correa when asked how disappointed he was that he'd have to wait an extra day to start the season, per the Houston Chronicle's Greg Rajan. "I'm no god to stop the rain."
But you don't have to be a god to know that the weather in early April is going to be nicer (and warmer) in Miami than say, in Cleveland or the Bronx. Surely, baseball's schedule-makers are aware of this as well, and it's something that should factor into their decision-making process for the first week of the season.
Start the Astros and Yankees at Minute Maid Park in Houston, not Yankee Stadium. Don't match up a pair of cold-weather cities, like Boston and Cleveland, to start the season. Send one to Tampa Bay and the other to Toronto, where a retractable roof can protect them from the elements.
Sure, Mother Nature does what she wants, when she wants, and there's nothing anyone can do about it. But with a little bit of common sense, MLB can at least put teams in situations where the risk of a postponed game due to inclement weather is minimized.
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Fiction: Re-Signing Yoenis Cespedes Was a Mistake by the Mets
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Based on the reactions of some New York Mets fans, you'd think that Yoenis Cespedes had stolen the Shea Stadium apple from behind the outfield wall at Citi Field Sunday night—despite the fact that the Mets were in Kansas City, at Kauffman Stadium, engaged in a rematch of the 2015 World Series.
In the second inning, a fly ball off the bat of Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas landed in his glove but bounced out before he closed the mitt. Then in the ninth inning, with two outs, runners on the corners and the Mets trailing by one, he struck out to end the game.
After that kind of performance, it's understandable (and predictable) that some would bemoan the team's decision to re-sign Cespedes to a three-year, $75 million deal. Cespedes' postgame explanation certainly did little to appease those angry, disappointed fans.
"The ball just fell, you know?" Cespedes told MLB.com's Anthony DiComo after the game about the error. "I'm human."
But two months from now, when Cespedes goes into full cyborg mode and smacks 10 home runs over a two-and-a-half week period, nobody's going to complain about the fact that he's baseball's highest-paid center fielder or even remember his Opening Day performance.
At that point, the complaints will be that the Mets never should have given Cespedes an opt-out after the first year of the deal, which allows him to test free agency once again after the season.
Fact: Trevor Story Is the Real Deal
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Whether it's Opening Day or the last game of the season, it's easy for a player making his major league debut to be overwhelmed by the moment. When a player's first game pits him against a former (and perennial) Cy Young winner, well, it's wise to temper expectations.
But someone forgot to tell that to Colorado's Trevor Story. The 23-year-old took Arizona's Zack Greinke deep not once, but twice, powering the Rockies to an unexpected 10-5 Opening Day victory.
"For him to do what he did on Opening Day, in his first game ever, was quite an accomplishment," Rockies manager Walt Weiss told the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders. "But he had a hell of spring and we know how talented he is."
Story hit .340 with 11 extra-base hits (six home runs), 13 RBI and an OPS of 1.199 over 20 spring training games. Last season, he hit a combined .279 with 70 extra-base hits (20 home runs), 80 RBI and an .863 OPS in 2015 while swiping 22 bases in 25 attempts between Double-A and Triple-A.
But Story's bat wasn't the whole, um, story on Opening Day. In the seventh inning, with the Rockies leading 7-5, he robbed Diamondbacks catcher Wellington Castillo of a potentially rally-starting single with a diving grab of a scorching line drive.
"Trevor looked so calm out there, a lot calmer than I was today," Colorado's All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado told Saunders. "I'm just so proud of him. He stayed under control, just like he always does. It was impressive."
He'll continue to impress as the season rolls along, because his talent is real—and the everyday job is his. Don't be surprised if he's in the thick of the National League Rookie of the Year race down the stretch, battling Los Angeles' Corey Seager for the honor.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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