Predicting the Outcome of Arsenal's Final 5 Premier League Games
Impressive victories over Everton and Watford have Arsenal fans wondering if they might yet figure in the Premier League title race after all.
The problem for the Gunners is that this spate of form may have come too late. Arsenal now require both Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur to drop points if they are to finish the campaign on top.
Speaking after the 4-0 win against the Hornets, Wenger emphasised that all Arsenal can do is focus on the quality of their own performances.
Per Arsenal.com, he said:
"We want to focus on the way we play and keep the quality very high. Then we’ll see where we are. We will fight until the end to have a chance. The only way we can achieve that is by playing games with our team quality. That is based on our movement, on our technical ability to play at the highest level and at the highest pace.
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It's a sensible way to look at things, but it won't stop Arsenal fans from dreaming of the possibility of landing the league.
If they’re to do so, they may need to win every game between now and the end of May. In order to get a sense of the difficulty of Arsenal’s run-in, we take a look at their last five games and attempt to calculate what sort of points tally they may end up accumulating.
Arsenal vs. West Bromwich Albion, April 21
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This is Arsenal’s game-in-hand over leaders Leicester, having been postponed due to the Gunners' doomed FA Cup exploits.
Tony Pulis is traditionally a difficult opponent for Arsene Wenger, and he led his side to a 2-1 victory over the Gunners at the Hawthorns back in November. That game arguably delivered a huge blow to Arsenal’s title challenge—not just because they dropped three points, but also because they lost Francis Coquelin to a serious knee injury.
However, Pulis’ teams don’t tend to pose such a threat when they travel to the Emirates Stadium. On home turf, Wenger will be confident that his side will be able to put the Baggies to the sword. West Bromwich Albion have scored a meagre 30 goals this season, so Arsenal’s goal should be relatively safe from harm.
When the end of the season approaches, the outcome of match is often influenced by which team has more to play for. West Brom are safely ensconced in mid-table, and could well have taken their foot off the gas somewhat by the time this fixture comes around.
Verdict: Arsenal win
Sunderland vs. Arsenal, April 24
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Arsenal have already played Sunderland twice this season, with the same result on both occasions. The two sides squared off in the Premier League back in December, and the Gunners ran out 3-1 winners thanks to goals from Joel Campbell, Olivier Giroud and Aaron Ramsey.
The next month, Arsenal were drawn against Sam Allardyce’s men in the FA Cup third round. Remarkably, the same three men found the net, with Jeremain Lens offering the only reply for Sunderland.
Intriguingly, it’s possible that none of that Arsenal trio will be in the Gunners XI when the two teams meet again in April.
Giroud has lost his place to the quicker Danny Welbeck, while Campbell is arguably behind both Theo Walcott and Alex Iwobi in the queue for a place on the wings. As for Ramsey, it remains to be seen how Wenger will attempt to reintegrate the Welshman once he returns from injury.
However, with Francis Coquelin and Mohamed Elneny providing an effecting screening platform at the base of the midfield, he may struggle to regain his spot.
However, Arsenal largely look a better team for those changes. Even without the players who helped them to beat Sunderland earlier this season, they should have enough to pick up three valuable points.
Verdict: Arsenal win
Arsenal vs. Norwich City, April 30
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This is not a fixture that Arsenal will particularly look forward to. The chances are that Norwich City will be involved in a relegation dogfight and scrapping for every point. That’s certain to make this a difficult match for the Gunners to navigate.
It was much the same at Carrow Road. Arsenal drew 1-1 with Norwich back in November, but they could well have lost that game. The Gunners were clearly rattled by the Canaries' direct approach.
In the last couple of weeks, Norwich have shown tremendous fighting spirit. It remains to be seen whether that carries through until the end of the season, but if it does, then Arsenal are in for a significant test.
However, home advantage will surely aid the Gunners. If Arsenal are still in with a mathematical chance of winning the league, they will be highly motivated themselves. On balance, this is a match that Arsene Wenger should expect to win.
Verdict: Arsenal win
Manchester City vs. Arsenal, May 7
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This is the most high profile—and potentially toughest—of Arsenal’s final five games.
Manchester City themselves could well have something to play for. With neighbours Manchester United currently making ground on them, they’ll be eager to win to ensure they finish in the top four and qualify for the UEFA Champions League.
The Etihad Stadium was the scene of one of Arsenal’s best results last season, as the Gunners picked up a 2-0 win that was arguably the turning point in their campaign. They also beat City at the Emirates Stadium when the two sides met earlier in 2015/16.
Arsenal have the potential to win at the Etihad again, but the quality of Manchester City makes that difficult to guarantee. A moment of inspiration from the likes of Sergio Aguero can turn a match on its head in an instant.
With both sides likely to be loath to lose, the most likely outcome may well be a draw.
Verdict: Draw
Arsenal vs. Aston Villa, May 15
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It must be a comforting thought for Arsenal to know that if they get to the final day needing a win, they’ll be up against Aston Villa.
The Midlands club are on course for a humiliating relegation and are lurching from disastrous result to disastrous result. There’s little to suggest there will be any late revival: Villa look like a side who’ve given up.
That should enable Arsenal to pick up a relatively routine three points at the Emirates Stadium.
If the Gunners can match these predictions and pick up 13 points from their final five games, they’ll certainly give Leicester and Tottenham cause for concern.
Verdict: Arsenal win
