Fantasy 'Start or Sit' for MLB's Risky Stars Entering 2016's Opening Week
Drafting a tip-top fantasy baseball squad only fulfills one portion of the vast puzzle. Without proper lineup management throughout the 162-game season, assembling the perfect team will prove all for naught.
Gamers have spent spring thinking big picture. Can Stephen Strasburg stay healthy for an entire season? Will Miguel Sano and Kyle Schwarber overcome poor strikeout tendencies by way of massive power? Which middle reliever can elevate to a closing role by May? Maybe, Trevor May?
After making decisions based on full-season projections, everyone must shift their thinking to a micro level once Opening Day arrives. That sleeper pitcher with a bright future doesn't have a promising present if Coors Field beckons. The cheap left-handed slugger won't stand a chance against Clayton Kershaw.
These roster dilemmas are especially confounding when beginning the season without any recent data other than spring-training results. The severity of some injuries remain foggy, and rookies will arrive drenched in uncertainty.
Start-sit analysis for the week ahead usually stars starting pitchers. Due to these circumstances, let's widen the scope and examine some curious cases across the diamond.
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
1 of 7
Scheduled Start: Tuesday vs. Toronto Blue Jays
One of the safest young mid-tier starters, Jake Odorizzi fits oddly into the "risky star" moniker. Yet, a troubling spring and brutal matchup shift him into dangerous territory.
A 6.92 ERA and five home runs allowed in as many starts shouldn't sound-off sirens. The 10 walks in 13 innings, however, cause concern for someone with a career 2.8 walks per nine innings.
In his last outing, the Tampa Bay Rays righty surrendered eight runs against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Per an Associated Press report, via FoxSports.com, he didn't express much concern about the poor performance.
"I'm not really too worried about it to be honest," Odorizzi said. "Just an awful spring training start. But you know the good thing is it gets erased in a couple of days, and we start new. I'm not worried about it whatsoever."
Even if he had just completed a flawless spring, owners would feel queasy using him against the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday. For those who need a refresher, the Blue Jays murder baseballs, leading MLB in runs, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage last year. The whole gang, led by defending American League MVP Josh Donaldson, is back together to keep mashing.
Odorizzi's spring struggles aren't enough on their own to worry, but most managers should not risk throwing him out against the Jays' big boppers.
Verdict: Sit
Kenta Maeda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 7
Scheduled Start: Wednesday at San Diego Padres
There's nothing riskier than the complete unknown.
When Kenta Maeda makes his MLB debut, tentatively set for Wednesday night against the San Diego Padres, nobody knows what to expect. The Japanese star has shined in spring, issuing a 2.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 20 strikeouts in 23 innings. Per the Los Angeles Times' Andy McCullough, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts likes what he has seen so far.
"He's good, if not better, than advertised," Roberts said. "His transition, up to his point, has been pretty seamless."
He initially didn't receive the same fanfare as other international signees, but the expectations are gradually rising. ZiPS is forecasting big things, projecting a 3.20 ERA and 3.6 WAR for his rookie campaign.
Even if he doesn't brandish ace upside, he's looking more and more like a mixed-league mainstay who will help everywhere without dominating anywhere. The 27-year-old also opens his MLB career at Petco Park against a middling Padres offense.
There's always inherent risk in trusting the unknown, but Maeda has a higher floor than the typical newcomer. Anyone who took a chance and drafted him might as well toss him into the starting lineup.
Verdict: Start
Jeff Samardzija, SP, San Francisco Giants
3 of 7
Scheduled Start: Wednesday at Milwaukee Brewers
Jeff Samardzija is a strong bounce-back candidate, but some supporters are treating it as a foregone conclusion.
ESPN.com ranks the San Francisco Giants arrival No. 28 among starting pitchers, projecting a 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 204 strikeouts. The 31-year-old righty owns a career 4.09 ERA after recording a 4.96 clip last year. He'll improve but not necessarily to top-fight status that he only achieved in 2014.
Moving back to the National League helps. Pitching half of his games in AT&T Park—the least conducive park to homers last year by a wide margin, per ESPN.com—will hide his atrocious 1.22 homers per nine innings.
That still doesn't fix everything. His strikeouts per nine rate has dipped in each of the last three years, dipping down to 6.86 last year. His swinging-strike percentage slipped to single digits for the first time since becoming a full-time starter, and his ground-ball rate plummeted to 39.0 percent.
These problems won't magically disappear, especially when he starts on the road. Expect a usable option rather than a stud, which means Shark isn't a weekly must-start option.
Pitching in Miller Park on Wednesday puts him on high alert to surrender long balls. Facing the rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers, however, saves him from the bench. This section would end differently were the Brewers not likely to give Chris Carter, Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Villar, Aaron Hill and Keon Broxton starting roles.
Verdict: Start
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Ken Giles, RP, Houston Astros
4 of 7
Schedule: at New York Yankees (3); at Milwaukee Brewers (3)
Here's a fun fact: The Houston Astros have not officially declared Ken Giles their closer yet.
OK, so perhaps more terrifying than fun for Giles investors. Given the grand package they awarded the Philadelphia Phillies, the fantasy community assumed he'd get the job over incumbent Luke Gregerson. Now it's not so certain.
The radio silence becomes especially concerning since Giles has yielded seven runs in 9.1 spring innings. Also troubling from a fantasy perspective: Manager A.J. Hinch doesn't care about your stinking closer role.
"Even when I (disclose my decision), it doesn't mean that every game is going to be managed the same way," Hinch told Jake Kaplan and Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. "This love affair with the title of closer and the save stat is exhausting sometimes. In reality, the team win is the most important event of the day."
Giles might not be the only victim of progressive bullpen management antiquating the standard five-by-five fantasy categories, but he's the most high-profile reliever not promised a ninth-inning gig. For now, owners can only wait and watch.
MLB.com's Brian McTaggart apparently disagrees. If Hinch shuns the traditional roles, he is least likely to make Gregerson the full-time closer because of his enhanced experience. Even if he surprises everyone by calling Giles' number in the seventh or eighth frame, the strikeouts amassed still count.
Giles, who owns a career 1.56 ERA and 11.75 K/9 ratio, will offer value even if he relinquishes a handful of save opportunities. Keep him active and hope for the best.
Verdict: Start
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 7
Schedule: at San Diego Padres (3); at San Francisco Giants (4)
No matter how minimal an ailment, nobody wants to see a star player sidelined in March. As a result, Corey Seager's mild knee sprain made investors nervous for his early availability.
Take a deep breath. The Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop ended a two-week absence on Thursday, returning to action with two hits.
Roberts confidently deemed him "100 percent" to ESPN.com's Doug Padilla. "[Seager] will be ready to go nine innings on Opening Day," the first-year skipper said.
Playing time won't be an issue for the Rookie of the Year frontrunner, especially with several teammates aching. He's technically still a neophyte after logging 113 plate appearances last year, but he's already a top-five fantasy shortstop after hitting .337/.425/.561 during his brief welcome.
The 21-year-old looked polished beyond his years, recording 14 walks to 19 strikeouts while generating a stellar 46.8 hard-hit percentage. If the rate proves more than a misleading small sample, his average will also amount to more than beginner's luck.
Most owners don't roster a strong starting shortstop, so few carry a capable Plan B. Fortunately for Seager's owners, they won't need one to start the season.
Verdict: Start
Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds
6 of 7
Schedule: vs. Philadelphia Phillies (3); vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (3)
Last year, many heated debates revolved around Billy Hamilton—2015's ultimate make-or-break fantasy star. This time around, there's more harmony. Nobody wants any part of the speedster.
Hamilton can single-handedly swing the stolen-base category. There's also the problem of reaching base after hitting .226/.274/.289 last year. Even with his strong defense in center field, he's walking on thin ice with such an abysmal line.
According to Cincinnati.com's C. Trent Rosecrans, Cincinnati Reds manager Bryan Price plans to shun Hamilton to the bottom of the batting order, below the pitcher at No. 9.
“I talked to him about it, Price said. "I said we’d love for you to be at the top of the order, but you’re going to have to be swinging the bat and getting on base at a higher percentage to get back there."
That will not stop him from running; Hamilton swiped 31 bags in 61 games batting No. 9 last year (per Baseball-Reference.com). It will, however, relegate him to even more of a one-category contributor. Before Opening Day, drafters who took the plunge must ask how much they need the speed boost.
In an NL-only league or mixed format with five starting outfielders, he's too talented to ride the bench. In a shallow league, make him prove he's fully healed from a hamstring strain and capable of hitting at a passable rate.
Verdict: Sit
Hanley Ramirez, OF, Boston Red Sox
7 of 7
Schedule: at Cleveland Indians (3); at Toronto Blue Jays (3)
The Boston Red Sox, who will boldly bench Pablo Sandoval in spite of his massive salary, hope a move to first base will salvage their other 2015 free-agent debacle.
Only Sandoval and designated hitter Victor Martinez posted a lower WAR than Hanley Ramirez's minus-1.8. His abhorrent defense in left field didn't derail fantasy gamers, but his .249/.291/.426 line didn't do them any favors.
The former star will once again change positions. More importantly from a fantasy perspective, he lost shortstop eligiblity. Not only must the 32-year-old rebound, he must deliver enough to pull his keep at outfield or first base.
Right now, it looks like a gamble worth taking. Before his 2015 unraveled, Ramirez crushed 10 homers in April and exited June hitting .283. Along with suffering lingering effects from getting hit on his left hand, he later admitted to playing through a shoulder injury which ended his season in late August.
Healthy this spring, he's hitting .333/.397/.510 while swiping three bags—an encouraging sign after poaching a career-low six bases last year. Even though he's no longer a shortstop, he would matter in all leagues by orchestrating another 2010 campaign.
Managers who make daily roster changes could find better matchups when Boston takes on Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. In weekly leagues, the promise of three games at Toronto should keep Ramirez active.
Verdict: Start
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. Schedule and probable pitchers obtained from MLB.com.
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