B/R Expert NCAA Bracket Picks 2016: Final Four Predictions

It's not the 2016 Final Four that anyone was expecting, but Bleacher Report's college basketball experts are back again to let you know what should happen in Houston on Saturday night.

North Carolina is the clear favorite to win it all with just three games remaining in the 2015-16 season, but there aren't too many things that need to go right for Syracuse to pull off the upset. Plus, Kentucky and Florida were the clear favorites at this point in 2015 and 2014, respectively, and things didn't end so well for those teams.

Before that ACC showdown, though, there's another rematch from the regular season when Villanova looks to avenge a 23-point loss to Oklahoma from nearly four months ago.

What did we learn from these teams when they faced off earlier in the season, and how have they grown since those tilts? Here are our pregame thoughts on the keys to each matchup, as well as our predictions for who will emerge to play for the national championship Monday.

Villanova vs. Oklahoma 

Matchup: No. 2 seed Villanova vs. No. 2 seed Oklahoma

Details: Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS) in Houston

Villanova Wins If...

The three-point disparity isn't nearly as wide as it was in the first game against Oklahoma. As you've likely been reminded a few times in recent days, Villanova shot 4-of-32 from beyond the arc in a 78-55 loss to the Sooners, who shot 14-of-26. Even though neither Buddy Hield (18 points on 17 shots) nor Jordan Woodard (10 points on eight shots) played particularly well, that game was painfully unwatchable by the second-to-last media timeout.

Aside from three-point shooting, though, Villanova is the better team in just about every regard. The Wildcats rank fourth in the nation in two-point percentage and second in free-throw percentage. They rarely commit turnovers and frequently force them. They don't often foul on defense and rarely have their shots blocked on offense. And they move the ball well, recording an assist on better than 60.0 percent of made field goals.

The Wildcats don't need to shoot better than Oklahoma from three-point range. They just need to remain competitive in that realm, because they should beat the Sooners in the other areas.

Oklahoma Wins If...

NRG Stadium is unable to slow down Woodard. Hield is going to score at least 20 points; maybe 30. There's no use in pretending otherwise. But Woodard has actually been the bigger indicator of Oklahoma's success this season:

Portion of Season	First 19 games	Next 12 games	Last five games
Woodard's three-point %	54.4 (49-of-90)	25.9 (15-of-58)	63.6 (14-of-22)
Woodard's average O-rating	126.3	86.6	137.6
Oklahoma's record	17-2	8-4	4-1
Oklahoma's average scoring margin	+14.4	+3.9	+8.4

Even within his current hot stretch, Woodard shot just 1-of-5 from three-point range in the too-close-for-comfort win over VCU in the round of 32. When he's shooting, defending and distributing well, Oklahoma plays on a higher level. But when Woodard is average, so are the Sooners.

Mikal Bridges is Villanova's best perimeter defender and will thus likely be in charge of trying to slow down Hield. However, Josh Hart is a great defender, too, and he should be the one attempting to keep Woodard under wraps. That's the individual battle most likely to dictate the outcome of the game.

Most Important Players Are...

Kris Jenkins for Villanova and Hield for Oklahoma. Villanova and Oklahoma both average 24.4 three-point attempts per game, and Jenkins and Hield are the guys primarily responsible for those long balls. It's not likely that they'll defend each other, but if threes are the key to this one, these are the players to watch.

Hield just shot 8-of-13 against Oregon, while Jenkins went 1-of-7 against Kansas. A repeat of those performances would be a gigantic advantage for Oklahoma.

Predictions

• Kerry Miller: Oklahoma
• C.J. Moore: Villanova
• Jason King: Oklahoma

North Carolina vs. Syracuse 

Matchup: No. 1 seed North Carolina vs. No. 10 seed Syracuse

Details: Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS) in Houston

North Carolina Wins If...

It doesn't get suckered into shooting a ton of three-pointers. In the first game against Syracuse on Jan. 9, North Carolina put on a clinic for breaking the 2-3 zone, feeding Brice Johnson at the free-throw line and having him spin and deliver the ball to Isaiah Hicks, Justin Jackson or Kennedy Meeks on the baseline. Johnson finished the game with eight assists, which doubled his previous career high.

And yet, the Tar Heels attempted 16 three-pointers in that game and another 25 in the second game against the Orange, shooting a combined 9-of-41 (22.0 percent) from beyond the arc. For a team that shoots 22.0 percent better inside the arc (54.1) than beyond it (32.1) and only attempts 26.8 percent of its shots from three-point range, that is the polar opposite of what it wants to do on offense.

If North Carolina relentlessly feeds the post, crashes the offensive glass and draws contact, this game could be over by halftime.

Syracuse Wins If...

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Malachi Richardson and Trevor Cooney are hitting threes. We already mentioned North Carolina's poor three-point shooting in the first two games between these opponents, but that's to be expected when a team that doesn't shoot well faces one that ranks 13th in the nation in three-point defense.

The bizarre side of the equation is that Syracuse shot 27.5 percent (14-of-51) in two games against UNC's dreadful perimeter defense.

We know that Richardson and Cooney are going to shoot. They have averaged a combined 13.1 three-point attempts per game this season. But there's no telling if those 35 percent shooters will be feeling it. They shot a combined 7-of-15 from deep in the marquee win over Duke on Jan. 18 and a combined 1-of-19 in the cringeworthy loss to St. John's on Dec. 13.

If that duo is making shots and forcing turnovers, advantage Syracuse. If they're clanking everything and watching Joel Berry II and Marcus Paige blow by them on defense, it'll be a long night for the Orange.

Most Important Players Are...

Johnson for North Carolina and Tyler Roberson for Syracuse. Johnson has been North Carolina's best scorer and rebounder all season long, but he'll also be key as a passer and shot-blocker in this game. As long as he avoids early foul trouble, the Tar Heels should be in business.

Roberson will be the one trying to stop Johnson from having a field day, primarily by keeping him off the offensive glass. If Roberson and Tyler Lydon can keep North Carolina from grabbing more than 30 percent of its own misses, it could be just as important as a good night of three-point shooting for the Orange.

Predictions

• Kerry Miller: North Carolina
• C.J. Moore: North Carolina
• Jason King: North Carolina

Prediction analysis written by Kerry Miller. Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com.