MLB 2021: Who Will Be the Superstars of Baseball in 5 Years?
Imagine, if you will, that the year is 2021.
Suspected performance-enhancing-drug cheats still haven't gained entry into the Hall of Fame, but the Tampa Bay Rays have relocated to Montreal, the Oakland A's now call San Antonio home and Bartolo Colon, at the age of 47, is still pitching.
While Colon's awesomeness is transcendent and immune to the effects of time, the same can't be said for the rest of Major League Baseball. In 2021, what would the best team we could build look like? Are today's top stars still worthy of a spot? Or would they be replaced by younger, lesser-known talent?
This is the futuristic query we find ourselves trying to answer while sticking to these guidelines:
- Only players who will be on Opening Day rosters in 2016 or who have already made their big league debuts are eligible for consideration. That means we can't choose top prospects like Lucas Giolito, Aaron Judge, Yoan Moncada or Julio Urias.
- Salaries are irrelevant, as our squad's owners have deeper pockets than the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees combined. Talent is the only thing that matters.
So step into our TARDIS as we travel into the not-too-distant future and comprise a 14-player squad, made up of eight position players, five starting pitchers and a closer.
The picture above serves as a spoiler for one of those 14 spots. Can you correctly guess the rest of our roster before clicking ahead?
Unless otherwise noted, all ages referenced are as of Opening Day 2021.
Catcher: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
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No position on the diamond takes more of a physical toll on a player than catcher, which makes it increasingly difficult to project a year or two in advance—much less five years.
Come 2021, a 34-year-old Buster Posey will be spending most of his time at first base (sorry, Brandon Belt), while Russell Martin and Yadier Molina, both entering their age-38 seasons, will either be part-time players or enjoying retirement.
That leaves us with five candidates for the top spot: a trio of 30-somethings in Yan Gomes (33), Devin Mesoraco (32) and Salvador Perez (30) and a pair of talented but still unproven 28-year-olds, Austin Hedges and Blake Swihart.
But the choice is simple—Perez. Consistently one of the game's best all-around catchers for the past few seasons, he'll still be in the prime of his career, and despite a lot of mileage on his knees, it's reasonable to assume he'll still be performing at a high level.
Prospects That Could Be in the Mix
Jorge Alfaro (Philadelphia Phillies), Willson Contreras (Chicago Cubs), Gary Sanchez (New York Yankees)
First Base: Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
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It comes down to a battle of prime 31-year-olds at first base: Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo. While their career numbers are eerily similar (Rizzo hits for more power, Freeman a higher average), Rizzo is the superior defender.
He'll also still be hitting in the middle of a stacked Chicago Cubs lineup, one with a 29-year-old Kris Bryant, 27-year-old Addison Russell and 28-year-old Kyle Schwarber. While Atlanta's lineup will have improved, it's hard to imagine it'll be on the same level as what Rizzo has with the Cubs.
Greg Bird (28) could play his way into the conversation, but he'll miss all of 2016 with a shoulder injury, raising too many questions about his future impact with the New York Yankees.
Current studs Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Abreu will be 33 and 34, respectively, and entering the part of their careers where they will start to slow down.
Speaking of slowing down, longtime fixtures at the position Miguel Cabrera (37), Albert Pujols (41) and Joey Votto (37) all figure to be shells of the players they currently are—though all three will still be playing. Cabrera and Pujols will both make $30 million in 2021, while Votto will get $25 million.
You don't walk away from that kind of money.
Prospects That Could Be in the Mix
Josh Bell (Pittsburgh Pirates), A.J. Reed (Houston Astros), Dominic Smith (New York Mets)
Second Base: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
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It's always risky to say a player who relies heavily on speed as a weapon will still be able to maintain the same level of play five years down the line. Speed doesn't age well, and it's why a 32-year-old Dee Gordon can't be the pick here. Gordon without his wheels figures to be rather unspectacular.
While Jose Altuve's speed is a huge part of his overall game, he's also got more pop in his bat than Gordon. If you need proof, Altuve's 15 home runs in 2015 nearly doubled Gordon's career total of eight. A 30-year-old Altuve might not swipe as many bags, but he'll still be a .300 hitter with solid power for the position.
Jonathan Schoop's power is tantalizing, but there are too many questions about his ability to make consistent contact for him to be a serious contender, though he'll still be in the prime of his career at age 29.
The same can't be said about 33-year-old Brian Dozier and 34-year-old Jason Kipnis, who both might have one solid season left before starting to fade. Perennial All-Stars Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia will be closer to 40 than 30 and nearing the end of their respective careers.
Prospects That Could Be in the Mix
Yoan Moncada (Boston Red Sox), Forrest Wall (Colorado Rockies)
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Third Base: Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
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Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant and Manny Machado walk into a bar...and for the next five years, patrons bicker back and forth over which one is baseball's best third baseman.
Bryant (29) isn't the defender that Arenado (29) or Machado (28) is, and while he might have the most power out of the group, all three have become perennial 40-homer threats. That sticks him at the back of the pack and makes this a two-man race between Arenado and Machado.
Flip a coin, anyone? It's that close.
While both will still be in their primes come 2021, Machado's youth gives him the slightest of advantages over Arenado and the starting spot at the hot corner.
Prospects That Could Be in the Mix
Rafael Devers (Boston Red Sox), Joey Gallo (Texas Rangers)
Shortstop: Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
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If you think baseball is in the era of the shortstop now, just wait until 2021, when today's crop of young studs are in their primes and have been joined by no fewer than five elite prospects currently in the minor leagues.
Thankfully, that crop of youngsters isn't yet eligible for our purposes. Picking one player from a group that includes Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager and Trea Turner is hard enough.
Actually, that's not entirely true. With Correa, it is a pretty easy choice.
He put together a half-season at the age of 20 that was good enough to not only win the American League Rookie of the Year Award but also land some votes in the AL MVP race. By the time 2021 rolls around, Correa will be entering his age-26 season, just hitting the prime years of his career.
Nobody would be surprised if we're referring to Correa as a legitimate MVP candidate in 2016—or a multiple-time winner of the award by the time 2021 rolls around.
Prospects That Could Be in the Mix
Orlando Arcia (Milwaukee Brewers), J.P. Crawford (Philadelphia Phillies), Jorge Mateo (New York Yankees), Brendan Rodgers (Colorado Rockies), Dansby Swanson (Atlanta Braves)
Outfield: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
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Is there anything left to write about the awesomeness of Mike Trout?
One of the two easiest selections on our All-Future squad, Trout's claim to the title of "best player in the game" doesn't figure to be any weaker in 2021, when the 29-year-old will still be in the thick of his prime.
There's nobody else to consider for the first spot in our outfield.
Outfield: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
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As it was with Mike Trout, selecting Bryce Harper as our second outfielder is a no-brainer.
At 28, the reigning National League MVP will still be in the early years of his prime, challenging the establishment and dismissing those who would dare ask a clown question with his elite bat speed and ridiculous power.
Harper, like Trout, is on another level from the rest of the outfielders in baseball and has no competition for a spot on our squad.
Outfield: Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
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With no fewer than 10 players able to make really strong cases as to why they should be the third and final outfielder on our All-Future team, narrowing the field down was difficult.
All-around players like Lorenzo Cain and Andrew McCutchen will both be entering their age-34 seasons in 2021, while Jose Bautista and Nelson Cruz will be 40-year-old sluggers. Even if all four are still productive, it's unlikely to be at their current levels, especially in the cases of Bautista and Cruz.
Byron Buxton will only be 27 and has all the talent in the world, but he's yet to prove that he can stay healthy for a full season (or hit major league pitching), so he's not an option.
Ultimately, we settled on six finalists: Mookie Betts (28), Yasiel Puig (30), Miguel Sano (27), Kyle Schwarber (28), George Springer (31) and Giancarlo Stanton (31). We're assuming, of course, that both Sano and Schwarber have developed into passable defensive outfielders and that Puig has matured.
There's a strong case to be made to just hand the third outfield spot to Stanton, given his track record thus far and his otherworldly power. But like Buxton, he's yet to prove that he can stay healthy, playing in more than 140 games only twice in his six-year career. The injury risk is too great to pick him.
Mookie Betts, however, has stayed reasonably healthy through the early part of his career, and he is defensively sound and an all-around threat. He can hit for average. He can hit for power. He's not afraid to draw a walk, and he has the speed to cause problems when he gets on base.
Prospects That Could Be in the Mix
Andrew Benintendi (Boston Red Sox), Aaron Judge (New York Yankees), Nomar Mazara (Texas Rangers)
The Lineup
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Our All-Future squad plays under National League rules—without the designated hitter—so our pitcher will hit ninth in the order. What might the lineup look like on a team full of superstars? Something like this.
| Jose Altuve | 2B | R |
| Mookie Betts | OF | R |
| Mike Trout | OF | R |
| Bryce Harper | OF | L |
| Manny Machado | 3B | R |
| Anthony Rizzo | 1B | L |
| Carlos Correa | SS | R |
| Salvador Perez | C | R |
While it'd be nice to have another left-handed bat to break up the trio of righties atop the lineup (and five in a row from eight through three), everyone in the lineup is capable of doing damage against pitchers coming from either side of the mound.
Speaking of pitchers, keep in mind that their abilities to hit played no part in selecting the six arms who follow. Also, rather than muddy the waters by listing potential impact prospects for each of our five rotation spots, we'll save that for the No. 5 gig, where the competition will be fierce.
No. 1 Starter: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
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A 33-year-old Clayton Kershaw doesn't figure to be quite as dominant as he's been up to this point in his career.
But even if he's only 80 percent of the pitcher he is at 28, that's better than most pitchers at their best, and some of his biggest competition—Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke, David Price and Max Scherzer—will all be on the wrong side of 35 come 2021.
The three-time National League Cy Young Award winner figures to arrive in 2021 with a few more pieces of hardware under his arm, perhaps with a chance at challenging Roger Clemens, who won the award seven times (six in the AL, one in the NL).
While everyone in this rotation is capable (and worthy) of being the ace of our staff, we're not about to take the honor away from a once-in-a-generation talent like Kershaw—even if he's the oldest player on our squad.
No. 2 Starter: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
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In the nearly 70 years since baseball integrated, only three pitchers have made at least 52 starts over the first two seasons of their careers and pitched to a lower ERA than Jacob deGrom's 2.61 mark: Dwight Gooden (2.00), Tom Seaver (2.47) and Gary Nolan (2.51). While deGrom was older at the start of his career than that trio, the numbers don't lie—he's really, really good.
It stands to reason that he'll still be that good entering his age-32 season in 2021—not only because he'll have less mileage on his arm than others his age, but because he's also got a five-pitch arsenal with which to attack hitters.
Even if he loses a tick or two off his fastball, his secondary stuff is still good enough to keep the opposition at bay—and plenty of pitchers make do with a low-90s heater.
It was tempting to slot fellow New York Met Matt Harvey in this spot, as he's been back to his old self since returning from Tommy John surgery, and Sonny Gray also got a good, long look. But deGrom's deGrominance is worthy of a spot on our staff.
No. 3 Starter: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
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A third starting pitcher on the wrong side of 30? On an All-Future team? How can this be possible?
Well, when that 32-year-old pitcher owns a career 2.91 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings of work, you bet on his future. Like Clayton Kershaw, a slightly diminished version of Chris Sale is still better than most pitchers in their primes.
Since Sale became a full-time starter in 2012, only two pitchers—Kershaw (1,001) and Max Scherzer (999)—have struck out more batters than his 900. During that time, only five pitchers with at least 110 starts under their belts have bested Sale's 2.95 ERA.
No. 4 Starter: Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
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After loading up on experienced veterans toward the end of their primes to front our rotation, we turn to a younger crowd to round things out.
Jose Fernandez looked like his pre-Tommy John surgery self roughly a year after undergoing the procedure in 2014, posting a 2.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 64.2 innings while exhibiting even better control than he had before with a career-best 1.9 walks per nine innings and a robust 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings.
It stands to reason that he'll be even better seven years removed from surgery in 2021, when the 28-year-old is fronting a rotation somewhere other than Miami.
No. 5 Starter: Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
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Picking a fifth starter was nearly impossible, with a slew of quality, front-of-the-rotation arms in their late 20s and early 30s to choose from.
Chris Archer (32), Madison Bumgarner (31), Gerrit Cole (30), Sonny Gray (31), Matt Harvey (32), Dallas Keuchel (33), Carlos Martinez (29), Danny Salazar (31) and Marcus Stroman (29) all received serious consideration.
But we just can't leave the Norse god and Marvel superhero, Noah "Thor" Syndergaard, off our squad. While he only has 24 major league starts under his belt heading into 2016, his rookie debut was one for the ages.
Only five rookie pitchers in baseball history have logged at least 150 innings with a better K/9 rate than Syndergaard's 9.96 mark—and none of them walked fewer batters than the 31 free passes he issued. By the time 2021 arrives, he's going to be even more dominant thanks to his physical gifts and baseball IQ.
"He asks a lot of questions, he asks the right questions and he got better," Mets manager Terry Collins told the Wall Street Journal's Andrew Beaton. "There's always a debate about who's going to be the best, and this kid's got a chance to be the guy."
Prospects That Could Be in the Mix
Tyler Glasnow (Pittsburgh Pirates), Lucas Giolito (Washington Nationals), Julio Urias (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Closer: Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
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When it comes to closers, there's Mariano Rivera, and there's everyone else. But everyone else needs to get in line behind Craig Kimbrel, for it's him, not Trevor Hoffman, Aroldis Chapman or any other closer you can think of, who ranks as the second-best of all time.
Among closers with at least 200 saves, nobody—not even Rivera—has converted them at a higher percentage than Kimbrel's 90.7 percent success rate. His career numbers are eye-popping: a 1.63 ERA and 0.93 WHIP to go along with a 14.5 K/9 rate.
Closers don't age quite as quickly as starters, given their limited use throughout the season, so it's easy to pick the 32-year-old version of Kimbrel in 2021 over some of his younger counterparts, including Ken Giles (30) and Roberto Osuna (26).
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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