What 2016 Spring Training Hints About Upcoming MLB Playoff Picture
For a baseball player, MLB spring training is like hand measurements and 40-yard-dash times at the NFL combine. It's a necessary function of the evaluation process but guarantees nothing about a guy's future prospects when games get serious.
Likewise, the performance of a team or player in spring training doesn't indicate anything about how the regular season may end. There have been teams that looked great in the spring but flopped during the season and vice versa.
Spring training is more like a glorified health club than anything that represents high-leverage competition. It's a means to achieve better performance when the season actually starts. The baseball world is still waiting for a player to earn the moniker "Mr. March."
But what spring training does provide us is a blueprint for how teams may achieve their playoff goals. Injuries, breakout performances and drama can all indicate—positively and negatively—what action a team may take to chase a division crown.
We won't come out of this year's spring training with an idea of who might win the World Series or a division title. However, what may have been a clearer playoff picture when spring began now resembles more of an abstract painting.
Spring training hasn't told us where the road to the playoffs may turn. But it has given us an indication as to where those turns lie.
The Cubs Will Live and Die by Their Pitching
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Fervent belief among the Chicago Cubs faithful is that this group of young prospects will become an offensive juggernaut. After all, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell all have nearly a season's worth of at-bats.
They can only get better.
After the team ranked a middling 15th in runs scored, 17th in OPS and 29th in team batting average last year, expect the Cubs to inch closer to the top of the league in those offensive categories in 2016. Major league service time will certainly help these baby Cubs.
But don't anticipate a Carl Lewis-like long jump to the top of the league this season. The team won’t be able to rely solely on its offense to take it to the playoffs. The spring training numbers have shown the Cubs will still struggle at times. The Cubs rank 18th in runs scored, 11th in OPS and 25th in team batting average this spring.
By default, their pitching will be burdened to a greater degree, making it a necessity for those players to remain healthy.
The Cubs added John Lackey to bolster a starting staff that lacked depth last season, as was apparent when manager Joe Maddon got questions about whether he would only pitch three starters in the National League Championship Series. Beyond Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, the team didn't have solid playoff options.
Lose one of the three aforementioned pitchers this season, and the Cubs could struggle. Lose one of their offensive stars, and they should be fine.
Also consider that in 2015, Maddon favored defense when constructing his lineups, most notably allowing David Ross to be Lester's personal catcher, forgoing the better bat of Miguel Montero.
That trend figures to continue in 2016 with a trio of experienced pitchers. It makes sense too. Given the limited experience of the Cubs' position players, it's reasonable to expect more consistent play from the team's veteran starting pitchers.
The White Sox Are Too Combustible to Do Anything This Year
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This movie has been baseball's featured film before: Mega-personalities within the Chicago White Sox organization have clashed and torpedoed any hopes of contending for the playoffs.
That appears to be the case after the Adam LaRoche saga turned into a media battle between team ace Chris Sale and executive vice president Ken Williams.
I covered the White Sox in 2010 when the relationship between then-manager Ozzie Guillen and Williams began to deteriorate publicly. In part, it led to the underwhelming performance of a promising roster.
This spring, LaRoche retired after Williams asked him to lessen the amount of time his son Drake spent around the clubhouse (Williams was unequivocally justified in his request). That led a caucus of players to publicly defend LaRoche, culminating when Sale called Williams a liar in an impromptu spring training interview, as reported by Mike Tulumello of the Associated Press (h/t ABC News).
There aren't any statistics that indicate how a team performs after its ace calls its top baseball executive a liar, or how it performs after one of its players retires because he is asked to restrict the amount of time his 14-year-old son spends in the clubhouse.
But internal clashes never have a positive outcome on the on-field product. The White Sox's history has told us that much.
Pray for Offense If You're a Dodger Fan
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"Injury bug" is a weird term. Unless we're talking the flu or a staph infection, nothing can really spread through a team.
I'm sure—barring being an idiot—you all know that one player's pulled hamstring has nothing to do with another's sore shoulder. But it appears this spring that injuries within the Los Angeles Dodgers clubhouse have bizarrely affected an unbelievably high number of the team's pitchers.
Brett Anderson will be out three to five months after undergoing back surgery. Hyun-Jin Ryu is feeling discomfort in his surgically repaired shoulder. Brandon McCarthy is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won't be back until the middle of the season. Mike Bolsinger has an oblique injury and won't be ready for Opening Day. Scott Kazmir has an abdominal issue that he downplayed to reporters.
The good news: The Dodgers still have one of the game's dominant arms in ace Clayton Kershaw, and Japanese import Kenta Maeda has impressed this spring.
But even if those two perform well, this is looking much like the Los Angeles team that relied on Kershaw and Zack Greinke to carry the rotation last year.
Offensively, this team will need to perform—a reasonable expectation given that it has position players who have starred offensively in the past.
Outfielder Yasiel Puig, who hit .319 as a rookie in 2013 and .296 the following season, should improve upon a 2015 season in which he hit .255. Puig struggled with hamstring and off-field issues last year. Given a renewed approach this spring training, he appears ready to return to All-Star form.
First baseman Adrian Gonzalez consistently hovers near the 100-RBI mark, and shortstop Corey Seager, baseball's top prospect, is expected to have an immediate impact.
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Trading Pablo Sandoval Could Help the Red Sox in the Playoff Chase
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Media have obsessed over third baseman Pablo Sandoval's need to lose weight after he reported to spring training looking pregnant with twins.
Of course, Sandoval has always looked portly. But given his .245 batting average last season, there was hope that he would take his conditioning more seriously. Sandoval has looked better this spring, hitting .270. But that is likely due to competition at third from Travis Shaw, who has hit .333 with nine RBI.
Manager John Farrell hasn't decided on who will be the Red Sox's Opening Day starter at third, though the Boston Herald's Jason Mastrodonato reported a decision could come by the end of the week. A lack of range at third base could be what ultimately loses the job for Sandoval.
"That’s probably where a lot of it centers around,’’ Farrell told USA Today's Jorge L. Ortiz. “Both have swung the bat very good in spring training, and yet, the defensive side is extremely important.’’
Trading Sandoval, the target of criticism since signing with Boston last offseason, could be what's best for both parties. With Shaw ready to become an everyday starter at the major league level, the team would be wise to shop Sandoval and his $17.6 million salary in 2016.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported the San Diego Padres were "taking a close look" at Sandoval. Given San Diego's need for a third baseman and its interest in Sandoval before he eventually signed with the Red Sox, the Padres would be a good suitor.
Freeing up the cash would also give Boston more flexibility as it approached the trade deadline.
CC Sabathia Could Be Jettisoned from the Rotation
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It's a long fall from 2007 American League Cy Young Award winner to potential fifth starter. But New York Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia could be looking at an even further drop.
While indications out of Yankees camp are that the lefty, who is earning $25 million in 2016, should earn the team's fifth spot in its starting rotation, he's unlikely to have much leeway once the season starts.
Sabathia, who missed the playoffs last season after electing to enter rehab for issues with alcohol, is battling Ivan Nova for that fifth spot. Nova's spring ERA is an unimpressive 5.50. And given that Sabathia has always been a starter, banishing him to the bullpen may render him useless given the entirely different skill set of coming into a game with men on base.
""I think that would be difficult for him, yeah," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told ESPN's Wallace Matthews. "CC has done a lot of good things in this game for a long time. Whatever decision we made, this is the hardest part of the year for me sometimes, these decisions that we have to make. You know that someone is going to be disappointed. You develop relationships, and it's difficult."
But even if Sabathia does begin the season in the Yankees rotation, the questions surrounding the once-prized lefty leave the possibility that New York could trade for a starter to bolster its rotation.
Ultimately, it could be a move that earns the Yankees a playoff spot.
Score Early in the American League East
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Modeling themselves after the World Series-winning Kansas City Royals, the teams of the American League East looked for some relief.
Relief pitching, that is.
The Yankees (trading for Aroldis Chapman), the Red Sox (trading for Craig Kimbrel) and the Baltimore Orioles (re-signing Darren O'Day) each made moves this offseason to elevate their bullpens to an elite level.
Come the end of the season, these bullpens could join the Royals as baseball's best.
Kimbrel has a .174 opponents' batting average and a WHIP of 0.67 this spring, appearing to justify the trade. Though Yankees relievers Chapman and Andrew Miller haven't posted gaudy spring numbers, they've combined for 17 strikeouts and four walks in 11 innings of work—two key stats for relievers.
This all suggests that bullpens in the division will shorten games. It won't be easy to score in the late innings with the crop of talented relievers on these three teams. That will force AL East teams to jump on starters and try to pile up runs early.
Don't expect many blown leads in this division race.
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