Predicting the 2016 MLB Stat Leaders in Every Major Category
With April 3's Opening Day finally in sight, now is the time to predict who will lead each league in some notable statistical categories.
This is obviously a shot in the dark, and there are always at least a few surprises that emerge over the course of the season.
However, a player's recent track record, positive and negative regression factors and the teammates surrounding him all helped to make these a series of educated guesses.
Remember though, at the end of the day these are still just that—guesses.
The following includes predictions for the top five finishers in each league for the following categories:
- Batting Average
- Hits
- Home Runs
- RBI
- Runs
- Stolen Bases
- Wins
- ERA
- Strikeouts
- Saves
Also included is one player to "keep an eye on" in each category, highlighting someone who finished well off the leaderboard last season who could make a surprise push this coming season.
Batting Average
1 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Michael Brantley, CLE | .310 | .321 |
| 2. Jose Altuve, HOU | .313 | .316 |
| 3. Miguel Cabrera, DET | .338 | .312 |
| 4. Mookie Betts, BOS | .291 | .311 |
| 5. Lorenzo Cain, KC | .307 | .308 |
Keep an eye on: Manny Machado, BAL (.286 in 2015)
AL Leader
During a breakout 2014 season, Michael Brantley ranked among the AL leaders in batting average (.327, third) and hits (200, second) while emerging as the best offensive weapon for the Cleveland Indians.
A shoulder injury hampered him last year and eventually required offseason surgery, but he still managed to post a .310 average.
The 28-year-old is still working his way back from offseason shoulder surgery, but he's expected to be back to 100 percent shortly after the season starts, and he'll be gearing up for a big campaign once he returns to the lineup.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Joey Votto, CIN | .314 | .320 |
| 2. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | .321 | .314 |
| 3. Bryce Harper, WAS | .330 | .312 |
| 4. Ben Revere, WAS | .306 | .310 |
| 5. Buster Posey, SF | .318 | .310 |
Keep an eye on: Anthony Rendon, WAS (.264 in 2015)
NL Leader
Coming off an injury-plagued season in 2014 where he missed significant time with a pair of quad setbacks, Joey Votto bounced back in a big way last year.
After a solid start he was nothing short of phenomenal following the All-Star break, hitting .362/.535/.617 to eventually land at third in NL MVP voting.
The incredibly patient Votto walked at an MLB-best 20.6 percent clip last year, and while the 32-year-old has led the NL in on-base percentage four times, he's never won a batting title. His closest finish was in 2010, when he hit .324 to rank second in the NL on his way to MVP honors.
That'll change in 2016.
Hits
2 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Jose Altuve, HOU | 200 | 202 |
| 2. Mookie Betts, BOS | 174 | 193 |
| 3. Ian Kinsler, DET | 185 | 189 |
| 4. Robinson Cano, SEA | 179 | 186 |
| 5. Adam Eaton, CWS | 175 | 184 |
Keep an eye on: Delino DeShields Jr., TEX (111 in 2015)
AL Leader
Jose Altuve set a franchise record with 225 hits in 2014 on his way to winning the AL batting title with a .341 average.
That mark dipped to .313 this past season, but he still banged out 200 hits for the second year in a row, and legging out an AL-best 34 infield hits helped him reach that total.
Few in the game are better at putting the bat on ball than Altuve, as he ranked fifth in the majors with an 89.8 percent contact rate last year. He's a dynamic table-setter for a terrific Astros offense, and as long as he stays healthy, you can expect another 200-hit season.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Ben Revere, WAS | 181 | 195 |
| 2. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 182 | 191 |
| 3. Andrew McCutchen, PIT | 165 | 188 |
| 4. Dee Gordon, MIA | 205 | 186 |
| 5. A.J. Pollock, ARI | 192 | 185 |
Keep an eye on: Joe Panik, SF (119 in 2015)
NL Leader
One of the fastest players in baseball, Ben Revere ranks fifth in the majors with 365 hits over the past two seasons.
Only 53 of those hits have gone for extra bases, and he's walked at just a 3.6 percent rate during that span, so his overall offensive value is somewhat limited, but he can bang out singles with the best of them.
Revere finished tied with Denard Span—the man he's replacing on the Washington Nationals roster—for the NL lead with 184 hits in 2014. With another 600-plus plate appearances, he should be able to make a run at pacing the league once again.
Home Runs
3 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Jose Bautista, TOR | 40 | 44 |
| 2. Mike Trout, LAA | 41 | 41 |
| 3. Chris Davis, BAL | 47 | 41 |
| 4. Josh Donaldson, TOR | 41 | 39 |
| 5. Jose Abreu, CWS | 30 | 36 |
Keep an eye on: Miguel Sano, MIN (18 in 2015)
AL Leader
Since the 2010 season, Jose Bautista leads all of baseball with 227 home runs, and he'll be looking for another big performance in that department entering a contract year.
His 40 long balls last season marked the third time in the past six years he's reached that level, and because he's surrounded by the likes of Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki, opposing pitchers can't exactly pitch around him.
The 35-year-old may not hit for a great average, but he has a terrific approach at the plate, as evidenced by his AL-high 110 walks. As long as he can avoid the injury issues that plagued him in 2012 and 2013, he'll continue peppering the outfield seats at the Rogers Centre with regularity.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Bryce Harper, WAS | 42 | 46 |
| 2. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA | 27 | 43 |
| 3. Nolan Arenado, COL | 42 | 40 |
| 4. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 33 | 38 |
| 5. Kris Bryant, CHC | 26 | 35 |
Keep an eye on: Maikel Franco, PHI (14 in 2015)
NL Leader
Bryce Harper brought a refined approach to the plate in 2015, raising his walk rate from 9.6 to 19.0 percent and dropping his strikeout rate from 26.3 to 20.0 percent while putting together the best offensive season of anyone in the game.
In a deeper look at his advanced stats, two numbers that stand out are a significantly improved hard contact rate (30.2 to 40.9 percent) and a noticeable dip in his O-Swing rate (35.7 to 28.2 percent), which represents how often he swung at pitches outside of the strike zone.
After hitting just 13 home runs in an injury-shortened 100-game season in 2014, Harper crushed 42 long balls last year to tie Nolan Arenado for the NL lead. Expect that to be the first in a long line of 40-homer campaigns for the 23-year-old.
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Runs Batted In
4 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Jose Bautista, TOR | 114 | 122 |
| 2. Chris Davis, BAL | 117 | 119 |
| 3. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR | 111 | 115 |
| 4. Miguel Cabrera, DET | 76 | 112 |
| 5. Josh Donaldson, TOR | 123 | 111 |
Keep an eye on: Danny Valencia, OAK (66 in 2015)
AL Leader
A grand total of 13 players tallied at least 100 RBI last season, and three of them played for the Toronto Blue Jays. Eventual AL MVP Josh Donaldson paced the AL with 123, while Jose Bautista finished third with 114 and Edwin Encarnacion was fourth with 111.
Expect that fearsome trio to all top 100 once again in 2016, but this time it will be Bautista who leads the league, which goes hand-in-hand with our prediction that he'll pace the AL in home runs.
Bautista has never won an RBI title, finishing third in the league with 124 during his monster 54-homer season back in 2010 and then third again this past year.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Kris Bryant, CHC | 99 | 128 |
| 2. Bryce Harper, WAS | 99 | 122 |
| 3. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA | 67 | 117 |
| 4. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 110 | 115 |
| 5. Nolan Arenado, COL | 130 | 112 |
Keep an eye on: Randal Grichuk, STL (47 in 2015)
NL Leader
Despite spending the first eight games of the season in the minor leagues and suffering through a brutal month of July in which he hit just .168/.270/.368, Kris Bryant still wrapped up his rookie campaign with 99 RBI.
That was good enough to tie for fifth in the NL, matching the RBI output of NL MVP Bryce Harper, who needed 16 more home runs than the 26 hit by Bryant to reach that mark.
Bryant hit .292 with runners in scoring position and .350 with two outs and runners in scoring position last season, and with an even better lineup around him and a year of experience under his belt, a 30-plus-homer season and a ton of RBI seem like a safe bet for 2016.
Runs Scored
5 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Jose Altuve, HOU | 86 | 114 |
| 2. Mookie Betts, BOS | 92 | 111 |
| 3. Ian Kinsler, DET | 94 | 106 |
| 4. Lorenzo Cain, KC | 101 | 103 |
| 5. Adam Eaton, CWS | 98 | 101 |
Keep an eye on: Nori Aoki, SEA (42 in 2015)
AL Leader
With a healthy season from George Springer, an extra two months of Carlos Correa and a full season of July deadline addition Carlos Gomez, the Houston Astros offense should be even more formidable than the group that ranked sixth in MLB in runs last season.
Whether he's hitting first or second, that should mean plenty of run-scoring opportunities for Jose Altuve, especially if he racks up the 202 hits we're predicting for him.
Surprisingly, Altuve has never reached 90 runs scored in a season, as he's touched the plate 85 and 86 times the past two seasons despite leading the AL in hits both years. That should change this season as he continues to be the offensive catalyst in Houston.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Bryce Harper, WAS | 118 | 117 |
| 2. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 103 | 112 |
| 3. Dexter Fowler, CHC | 102 | 108 |
| 4. Ben Revere, WAS | 84 | 107 |
| 5. Matt Carpenter, STL | 101 | 104 |
Keep an eye on: Denard Span, SF (38 in 2015)
NL Leader
Thanks in large part to piling up 124 walks and raising his on-base percentage more than 100 points from .344 to .460, Bryce Harper wound up leading the league with 118 runs scored last season.
As long as he maintains his ultrapatient approach and continues to crush the pitches he does get to hit to the tune of a batting average north of .300, Harper will again be a threat for 100-plus runs scored.
Healthy seasons from Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman, as well as the addition of Daniel Murphy, will also provide Harper with more chances to make it all the way around when he doesn't leave the yard.
Stolen Bases
6 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Delino DeShields Jr., TEX | 25 | 45 |
| 2. Jose Altuve, HOU | 38 | 39 |
| 3. Jarrod Dyson, KC | 26 | 35 |
| 4. Billy Burns, OAK | 26 | 34 |
| 5. Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY | 21 | 32 |
Keep an eye on: Austin Jackson, CWS (17 in 2015)
AL Leader
After swiping 56 bases in 2014, Jose Altuve saw his stolen base total dip to 38 last season, but that was still 10 more than anyone else in the AL.
Expect him to have more competition this time around, as Delino DeShields Jr., Jarrod Dyson and Billy Burns are all in position to see a bump in playing time compared to last season.
We'll give the edge to DeShields, who made good as a Rule 5 pick last season and eventually usurped the starting center field job from incumbent Leonys Martin. His 25 steals came in just 121 games, so a decent increase can be expected from a guy who once stole 101 bases in a minor league season.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Dee Gordon, MIA | 58 | 51 |
| 2. Billy Hamilton, CIN | 57 | 40 |
| 3. Ben Revere, WAS | 31 | 38 |
| 4. Charlie Blackmon, COL | 43 | 38 |
| 5. A.J. Pollock, ARI | 39 | 34 |
Keep an eye on: Jose Peraza, CIN (3 in 2015)
NL Leader
The only real competition for Dee Gordon in the stolen base department the past two seasons has been Billy Hamilton, and don't be surprised if Hamilton loses playing time this year if he can't improve his dismal .226/.274/.289 line from a year ago.
In fact, our player to keep an eye on on the NL side—Jose Peraza—might be the one who winds up stealing playing time from Hamilton.
Even with some sizable regression from his .333 batting average from a year ago, Gordon should still be a real threat for a third consecutive season with 50-plus steals. He's probably the safest bet of any of these predicted stat leaders.
Wins
7 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Cole Hamels, TEX | 13 | 21 |
| 2. Dallas Keuchel, HOU | 20 | 19 |
| 3. David Price, BOS | 18 | 19 |
| 4. Felix Hernandez, SEA | 18 | 18 |
| 5. Sonny Gray, OAK | 14 | 18 |
Keep an eye on: Aaron Sanchez, TOR (7 in 2015)
AL Leader
This is probably the most "out on a limb" prediction of the bunch, but Cole Hamels topping 20 wins this season isn't as far-fetched as it may seem.
Hamels was 6-7 with a 3.64 ERA in 20 starts with the Philadelphia Phillies last season prior to being traded July 31, but he closed out the year by going 7-1 with a 3.66 ERA in his 12 starts in Texas.
In order to author a 20-win season, a pitcher needs to be backed by a good offense, pitch in front of a good defense and be flanked by a strong bullpen on a contending team. Hamels has all of that working for him, so we'll say the 32-year-old tops his previous career-high of 17 wins en route to leading the AL with 21 victories.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Max Scherzer, WAS | 14 | 20 |
| 2. Madison Bumgarner, SF | 18 | 19 |
| 3. Jake Arrieta, CHC | 22 | 19 |
| 4. Gerrit Cole, PIT | 19 | 18 |
| 5. Noah Syndergaard, NYM | 9 | 18 |
Keep an eye on: Adam Wainwright, STL (2 in 2015)
NL Leader
Max Scherzer is the perfect example of how the win statistic is more about circumstance and luck than it is a true gauge of how good of a season a pitcher had.
Here's a look at his past three campaigns:
- 2013: 2.90 ERA, 0.970 WHIP, 240 K, 0 CG, 0 SHO
- 2014: 3.15 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 252 K, 1 CG, 1 SHO
- 2015: 2.79 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 276 K, 4 CG, 3 SHO
By all accounts, 2015 was his best season across the board, yet he went just 14-12 after leading the AL in wins in both 2013 (21-3) and 2014 (18-5).
Assuming they can avoid the injury bug that bit hard last season, the Washington Nationals should be right in the thick of things in the NL East. That means plenty of chances to pile up wins for one of the game's best pitchers.
Earned Run Average
8 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Sonny Gray, OAK | 2.73 | 2.51 |
| 2. Chris Sale, CWS | 3.41 | 2.62 |
| 3. Chris Archer, TB | 3.23 | 2.77 |
| 4. Dallas Keuchel, HOU | 2.48 | 2.88 |
| 5. David Price, BOS | 2.45 | 2.95 |
Keep an eye on: Marcus Stroman, TOR (1.67 in 2015)
AL Leader
Entering the final month of the season, Sonny Gray was very much in the AL Cy Young race right alongside Dallas Keuchel and David Price.
However, he seemed to run out of gas in September, pitching to a 6.84 ERA over his final five starts and raising his season mark from 2.13 to 2.73 in the process.
One of the game's emerging young stars at 26 years old, there's a good chance we've not yet seen the best that Gray has to offer, and an ERA title could be waiting when the 2016 season comes to an end.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 2.13 | 2.22 |
| 2. Max Scherzer, WAS | 2.79 | 2.41 |
| 3. Jake Arrieta, CHC | 1.77 | 2.45 |
| 4. Madison Bumgarner, SF | 2.93 | 2.66 |
| 5. Jose Fernandez, MIA | 2.92 | 2.79 |
Keep an eye on: Robbie Ray, ARI (3.52 in 2015)
NL Leader
Before being unseated by then-teammate Zack Greinke (1.66) and Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta (1.77) last season, Clayton Kershaw was working on a string of four consecutive NL ERA titles.
That included a pair of sub-2.00 ERA seasons, and it's not as though he pitched poorly in 2015—his 2.13 ERA would have been good enough to take the crown in most years, and his 1.99 FIP was, in fact, tops in the NL.
He may have been bested last season, but Kershaw remains an easy choice for the title of best pitcher in baseball, and the smart money is obviously on him authoring the best ERA among NL aces in 2016.
Strikeouts
9 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Chris Archer, TB | 252 | 266 |
| 2. Chris Sale, CWS | 274 | 261 |
| 3. David Price, BOS | 225 | 237 |
| 4. Corey Kluber, CLE | 245 | 235 |
| 5. Carlos Carrasco, CLE | 216 | 228 |
Keep an eye on: Carlos Rodon, CWS (139 in 2015)
AL Leader
Armed with a mid-90s fastball and arguably the best slider in baseball, Chris Archer put together a breakout season on his way to striking out a Rays franchise record 252 batters last season.
Opponents whiffed a whopping 175 times against his slider, hitting just .189 with a .272 slugging percentage when facing the pitch, according to Brooks Baseball.
As good as his fastball-slider combination is, he's capable of being even more difficult to hit if he can continue to develop his changeup into a reliable third offering. We'll say the 27-year-old takes another step forward in 2016 and wins his first strikeout title after finishing second to Chris Sale last year.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 301 | 278 |
| 2. Stephen Strasburg, WAS | 155 | 255 |
| 3. Max Scherzer, WAS | 276 | 252 |
| 4. Jose Fernandez, MIA | 79 | 229 |
| 5. Noah Syndergaard, NYM | 166 | 221 |
Keep an eye on: Raisel Iglesias, CIN (104 in 2015)
NL Leader
He may not have won a fourth Cy Young Award, but Clayton Kershaw did become the first pitcher since Randy Johnson (334) and Curt Schilling (316) in 2002 to rack up 300 strikeouts in a season.
That marks the third time in the past five years that Kershaw has won the NL strikeout title, and he's now struck out at least 200 batters in each of the past six seasons.
His 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings were off the charts for a starting pitcher, as Max Scherzer (10.9) was the only other NL hurler in double digits and finished 25 strikeouts behind.
Scherzer should put up another big strikeout total, and a healthy Jose Fernandez is worth keeping an eye on, but it's hard to bet against Kershaw here after he rang up 301 guys last year.
Saves
10 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Wade Davis, KC | 17 | 48 |
| 2. Craig Kimbrel, BOS | 39 | 43 |
| 3. Cody Allen, CLE | 34 | 39 |
| 4. Ken Giles, HOU | 15 | 38 |
| 5. Shawn Tolleson, TEX | 35 | 36 |
Keep an eye on: Joaquin Benoit, SEA (2 in 2015)
AL Leader
For the first time in his career, Wade Davis enters a season as the unquestioned closer. After he went 17-of-18 on save chances while filling in for an injured Greg Holland last season, there's no reason to think he won't be up to the task.
Over the past two seasons, Davis has posted a 0.97 ERA, 0.818 WHIP and 12.1 K/9 in 140 appearances, establishing himself as arguably the most dominant reliever in all of baseball.
Beyond his experience as an injury fill-in, he also served as the Kansas City Royals' closer during their run to a World Series title. He made eight appearances in the playoffs, throwing 10.2 scoreless innings and going 1-0 with four saves in four chances.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Trevor Rosenthal, STL | 48 | 46 |
| 2. Kenley Jansen, LAD | 36 | 42 |
| 3. Mark Melancon, PIT | 51 | 41 |
| 4. Jeurys Familia, NYM | 43 | 39 |
| 5. Hector Rondon, CHC | 30 | 38 |
Keep an eye on: Tyler Clippard, ARI (19 in 2015)
NL Leader
Mark Melancon and Trevor Rosenthal both set the single-season save record for their respective franchises last year, and they should be right in the thick of things for the NL saves lead once again.
Rosenthal saved 45 games in 2014, but he also had six blown saves with a 3.20 ERA and 1.408 WHIP as he was far from a lights-out option in the ninth inning.
Those numbers improved across the board in 2015 as he blew just three saves while pitching to a 2.10 ERA and 1.267 WHIP. Those are still not elite numbers, but they're a significant improvement and plenty good enough to think he'll pile up saves once again for a Cardinals team that will be relying heavily on the pitching staff and could find itself in plenty of close games.
All standard statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while advanced stats come via FanGraphs.
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