Why Marshaun Coprich Could Be Next Late-Round Running Back Steal
The 2016 NFL draft is looking deep with potential impact players as April's mega event rapidly approaches. The big-ticket names are well-known by this point in the offseason. But it could be a late-round contributor who swings a playoff race or contest.
Every season there are numerous Day 3 or undrafted free agents who prove to be critical difference-makers at some point in the year. The running back position tends to produce an impact late-round rookie either as a rotational player or even a starter every year. This year’s late-round star could be Illinois State running back Marshaun Coprich.
The running back position has undergone a sharp devaluation over the last decade as the shelf life has decreased. Teams that lack an elite back have moved away from long-term investments in one single back and have preferred to replenish outgoing and aging talent with a young player on a team-friendly rookie contract. Once that first contract expires, it’s time to repeat the cycle.
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This strategy helps keep costs down, but it does come with risk. The difference between the great backs and the average replacement-level ones is sharp in terms of production. Over the last 10 years, 50 different running backs finished in the top 10. A whopping 37 were selected in the first three rounds.
That’s not to say the running backs found on Day 3 aren’t capable starters or role players, though. Seven of the top 25 active career yards-rushing leaders were drafted in the sixth round or later. Finding the next Alfred Morris or Arian Foster is difficult, but players of Coprich’s talent ooze that sort of potential.
It’s not just about the numbers for Coprich, although the 5’8”, 207-pound back has no shortage of accolades to rest his helmet on. The two-time FCS first-team All-America selection finished his career with 5,201 yards, 59 touchdowns, 5,800 all-purpose yards and 362 points scored.
Coprich led the FCS in rushing in 2014 with 2,274 yards and then followed that performance with 1,967 yards on 49 fewer carries in his senior campaign. He finished with 33 receptions, 233 yards and one touchdown receiving.
He was the main offensive cog for a Redbirds team that won 23 of 28 games in his final two seasons. His team nearly derailed FCS powerhouse North Dakota State in the 2014 FCS Playoff Championship, but it fell just short, losing 29-27. Coprich had 16 carries for 110 yards against the staunch Bison defense.
Coprich is short but a twitched-up athlete for his frame. He’s an explosive runner in a zone-blocking scheme, ripping off eight runs of 40 yards or more in 2015. Five of those runs went for 70-plus-yard touchdowns.
His blazing 4.47-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis is easily seen on the field as well. He effortlessly pulls away from defenders even after he bounces off contact. Once he hits the secondary, Coprich is a tough runner to bring down.
He’s not reliant on the big play, though. There’s a level of nuance to Coprich’s game and certainly an attitude that can be seen in the clip above. He’s fast, but his short-area burst is what his elusiveness is predicated on. His jump cuts are devastating because they force difficult ankle tackles.
Understandably, the juke is his go-to move. His lower-body muscles fire off in a heartbeat, and it allows him to be patient in the backfield. Illinois State ran a mixed-blocking scheme that utilized both zone and power concepts. When he was asked to attack down the heart of the defense, he was able to hit late-developing holes.
There will undoubtedly be concern from evaluators that Coprich’s production came against lower competition than FBS prospects, but he stands out like a legitimate FCS prospect should. He was always the best athlete on the field, and it showed the moment he found open space. He had few negative plays in his final two seasons thanks to his leg drive, vision and solid blocking.
Many backs are able to just take what the defense gives them. These are valuable pieces for an offense. But the backs who can create chunk yardage out of small crevices are the special and more valuable offensive weapons.
The manipulation of angles is all about setting up the defender before it’s time to execute on the move of choice. The move before the move can be as subtle as pressing the linebackers to bait them into overcommitting toward the line of scrimmage. Coprich does just that below, as he plants with his left foot before he reaches the hole:
Two defenders dive at his legs in a desperate attempt to grab him before he turns on the jets downfield. But they’re unable to disrupt his running motion because he had set them up for this moment. Coprich just had to outrun the far-side cornerback who had no chance to interrupt his sprint into the end zone.
He’s shown the confidence and attitude needed to be a game-changing back with the ball in his hands, but he also brings toughness in the passing game. Despite having a less than ideal frame for the position, he is unafraid to blast a blitzer in the chest. His high football IQ is also on display.
Coprich is alert and clearly did his homework to know when the opponent would blitz in the above example. He pointed out his assignment prior to the quarterback, and he bolted over to get in position post-snap. He greeted the slot cornerback with a violent explosion into his chest, knocking the defender out of the play.
The awareness and selflessness he exhibits in pass-protection situations are impressive and endearing. Most small backs coming from a spread offense are ineffective in this aspect of the game, rendering them useless in the NFL. Not Coprich—he’s a willing hitter and deterrent.
The impact of the collisions he forces with his blocks are bittersweet. On one hand, coaches will love the tenacity and effectiveness. There’s also reason to be concerned with his longevity and the fact he's opening himself up to the possibility of injury. He doesn’t have much other choice, though, as his sub-30-inch arms (29 ⅝") make it hard to block with traditional technique.
You may be asking why such a talented and explosive runner could find himself available on Day 3 of the draft. In terms of on-field talent, he’s a worthy third-round player who could be a high-impact second option. But he has some off-field demons that could cost him.
According to Edith Brady-Lunny of the Pantagraph, Coprich pleaded guilty to a felony drug charge in May 2015. He was caught trying to sell marijuana to an undercover police officer and took a plea deal to reduce the punishment to community service and a first-time offender program. He’s under probation through the draft.
The incident was a blip on his career, and he hasn’t been involved in any incident since the arrest prior to the 2015 season. This could still cause him to fall as general managers weigh the potential consequences of a slip-up by Coprich until his probation passes.
If the 21-year-old can continue to prove his past mistake was simply a one-time gaffe, he has the ability to carve out an excellent NFL career. His game is reminiscent of Maurice Jones-Drew and Mark Ingram. He brings three-down versatility and game-breaking quickness despite his stout frame.
If a zone-blocking team picks up Coprich and gives him a fair chance to earn playing time, don’t be surprised if he’s one of the top rookie running backs in 2016. He has one of the most explosive skill sets in the class and has all of the motivation needed to prove he’s more than just a small-school star.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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