Final Predictions for MLB's Most Hotly Contested 2016 Spring Position Battles
With Opening Day creeping up on the calendar, teams across Major League Baseball are getting close to resolving one of very few things that matter in spring training: position battles.
But rather than wait for official answers, we're going to pretend like we know everything and predict what the answers will be.
We have our eyes on 10 of the spring's most hotly contested position battles. These are the battles where there's not only an important position at stake but also more than one worthy contestant in the running.
Our predictions will be based mostly on spring performances but also on other factors such as contract status and service time. Step into the box when you're ready.
St. Louis Cardinals First Base
1 of 10
After the St. Louis Cardinals experienced an offensive quagmire at first base in 2015, they're hoping Brandon Moss, Matt Adams or Matt Holliday can provide some, well, hope in 2016.
According to the trio's spring numbers, this three-way contest is really a two-way contest:
| Moss | 35 | 1 | 0 | .257 | .278 | .457 | .735 | 8.4 |
| Adams | 28 | 1 | 0 | .250 | .333 | .464 | .798 | 8.5 |
| Holliday | 24 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .231 | .250 | .481 | 8.5 |
Moss was leading the charge, but he's now slumping with just two hits in his last 17 at-bats. Though Adams hasn't heated up in the meantime, he's been more consistent against the same quality of opponents. Holliday, meanwhile, would seem like the long shot in this race.
But despite his poor numbers at the plate, the Cardinals still like what they're seeing from Holliday at first base. So much so, in fact, that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that it's an experiment the club is "eager to try" as soon as Opening Day.
Plus, it's not like the Cardinals need a hot spring from Holliday, a .307 lifetime hitter, to know he can hit. Their primary focus is surely keeping the 36-year-old healthy. Stashing him at first base could do just that, and it would allow them to put Moss in the outfield and Adams on the bench.
Predicted Winner: Matt Holliday
New York Yankees Starting Rotation
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OK, so, this is a position battle that features two guys fighting to be the least bad solution. But since it's the New York Yankees and one of the combatants has a huge contract, we'll allow it.
It's Ivan Nova vs. CC Sabathia for the No. 5 spot in the Yankees' starting rotation, and it's going like this:
| Nova | 13.1 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1.35 | 4.05 | 8.3 |
| Sabathia | 7.1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 2.05 | 7.36 | 8.8 |
Things would look different if Nova had lived up to expectations in what Yankees skipper Joe Girardi called—per Fred Kerber of the New York Post—a "big start" his last time out. But, he fumbled that by allowing four runs in 4.1 innings against the Minnesota Twins.
As for Sabathia, he's not worried about his rough spring. In his mind, he proved his worth with his strong finish to 2015.
"I can lean on how I pitched at the end of the year last year," Sabathia told George A. King III of the Post. "I definitely made the transition from not being a power pitcher anymore and getting outs, and I am very confident I can do that."
Maybe the Yankees don't agree, but they can probably agree that a guy with a $25 million salary and finesse stuff doesn't fit in a relief role—not as well as Nova and his power fastball/curveball combination, anyway. Barring injury, Sabathia should hold Nova off.
Predicted Winner: CC Sabathia
Washington Nationals Shortstop
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The Washington Nationals are going to turn their shortstop gig over to top prospect Trea Turner eventually. But for now, he needs to earn the job over Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew.
Or, given the way things are going, maybe just Drew:
| Turner | 31 | 1 | 6 | .226 | .324 | .355 | .679 | 7.1 |
| Espinosa | 25 | 1 | 1 | .120 | .185 | .240 | .425 | 8.3 |
| Drew | 25 | 1 | 0 | .320 | .414 | .520 | .934 | 8.5 |
Espinosa's trouble with the lumber is nothing new. That's a reminder that he's probably best used as a utility infielder, a claim that's harder to make about Turner or Drew.
Between the two of them, Turner's slow spring confirms that, yes, he is still a prospect. That's why Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has promised nothing.
"He's got one full season of minor league baseball under his belt," Rizzo said on ESPN.com's Buster Olney's podcast, via Patrick Reddington of Federal Baseball. "He's a guy that could use some more at-bats in the minor leagues."
Turner isn't out of the mix just yet, as he's heated up with six hits in his last 18 at-bats. But with Drew hitting well and capable of playing a serviceable shortstop, there's no need for the Nationals to rush Turner. Expect him to begin 2016 in the minors, with Drew starting at short and Espinosa sitting on the bench.
Predicted Winner: Stephen Drew
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Toronto Blue Jays Closer
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Roberto Osuna was a breakout star as the Toronto Blue Jays closer in 2015, but he'll have to outperform Drew Storen this spring if he wants to close in 2016.
So far, that's proving difficult:
| Storen | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 8.7 |
| Osuna | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1.00 | 3.60 | 8.4 |
Storen has the ERA advantage, but Osuna's advantage in the strikeout column arguably holds more weight. As Mike Podhorzer found at FanGraphs, spring strikeout rates have much more predictive power than spring ERAs.
Whether that will matter, though, is a good question. Blue Jays manager John Gibbons hasn't committed to either Storen or Osuna, but he's been consistent with his opinion that Storen matches the description of a typical closer more than Osuna does.
"What makes the bullpen work best," Gibbons told Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today. "Osuna can give you more than one inning. Drew's probably limited to one inning. That’s kind of who they are."
This echoes what Gibbons said to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com at the outset of spring training, telling him that Storen was going into camp with the edge. He's held onto that edge while facing some solid competition, so it's a good bet that he'll go from "de facto" closer to "official" closer.
Predicted Winner: Drew Storen
Kansas City Royals Starting Rotation
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The Kansas City Royals may have as many as six candidates in the running for the final spot in their rotation. But realistically, it's between Kris Medlen, Dillon Gee and Chien-Ming Wang.
And so far, it's been a good battle:
| Medlen | 12.1 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 1.46 | 6.57 | 8.4 |
| Gee | 10.0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1.30 | 2.70 | 8.4 |
| Wang | 10.0 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1.10 | 2.70 | 8.3 |
That Gee's ERA is much better than Medlen's and right there with Wang's doesn't hurt his cause. But it may not help it too much either. Next to the hits he's allowed and his modest strikeout-to-walk ratio, Gee's ERA isn't overly convincing.
In contrast, Wang has been legitimately good. He's also looked the part. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reports that the veteran sinkerballer has his velocity back in the mid-90s after working with noted pitching guru Ron Wolforth over the winter.
But as things stand now, Medlen is the likely favorite for the No. 5 spot even despite his issues with the long ball. He's been just as good as Wang, and his $5.5 million salary for 2016 gives the Royals an extra incentive to put him in their rotation and see what he can do.
The Royals won't forget about Wang, though. It's clear they've stumbled into an intriguing reclamation project. He could help them in some capacity this season.
Predicted Winner: Kris Medlen
Arizona Diamondbacks Left Field
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When the Arizona Diamondbacks shifted Yasmany Tomas to left field at the outset of spring training, the conventional wisdom was that it was his position to lose.
Leave it to a guy named Socrates to upend the conventional wisdom. He's turned a foregone conclusion in left field into this:
| Brito | 42 | 1 | 3 | .381 | .409 | .548 | .957 | 7.8 |
| Tomas | 18 | 0 | 0 | .389 | .421 | .556 | .977 | 8.4 |
Brito's eye-opening performance isn't coming out of nowhere. He had a breakout season in the minors in 2015, culminating in a strong 18-game showing in the majors. And now, he has the full attention of Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale.
"He's really played well," Hale told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. "He really looks good. There's not a day he doesn't do something good, right? Defensively. Offensively. He's come here to make a team. It's impressive."
However, Brito's push felt stronger when Tomas was sidelined by a bad knee. Tomas has been quite good in his own right since returning and against better competition than Brito has faced.
There's also Tomas' $68 million contract to consider. Since the Diamondbacks are paying him that much, it behooves them to give him the benefit of the doubt no matter how good Brito looks.
Predicted Winner: Yasmany Tomas
Washington Nationals Outfield
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The Washington Nationals outfield wasn't supposed to be complicated. It was supposed to be Jayson Werth in left, Ben Revere in center and Bryce Harper in right.
Well, Harper is not going anywhere. But thanks to Michael A. Taylor, the other two-thirds of Washington's outfield picture have gotten interesting:
| Taylor | 33 | 3 | 3 | .485 | .514 | .848 | 1.363 | 8.2 |
| Revere | 32 | 1 | 1 | .375 | .375 | .531 | .906 | 8.9 |
| Werth | 26 | 1 | 0 | .192 | .222 | .308 | .530 | 7.9 |
Based on the numbers, the logical plan would be to bench Werth and play Taylor in center and Revere in left. But since Werth is owed $21 million this season, uh, yeah, that's not happening.
It's thus a question of whether the Nats want to ignore Taylor's spring and use him as a fourth outfielder or put stock in it and use him either as a regular or as a platoon partner with Revere. They may well choose the regular route. With good defense to go with his power/speed combination on offense, he'd be an All-Star-caliber player if his spring dominance carried over.
But Taylor as a regular doesn't seem likely. Revere's track record and hot spring are too good for the Nationals to disregard in favor of Taylor's breakout spring. It's more likely that the two of them will be platooned in center. At least until Werth inevitably gets injured, anyway.
Predicted Winner: Revere/Taylor Platoon
Boston Red Sox Third Base
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This is a spring battle that was on nobody's radar at the outset of the exhibition season. But as John Tomase of WEEI.com reported, Red Sox manager John Farrell effectively told Pablo Sandoval that he'll need to beat Travis Shaw if he wants to start at third base.
With a string of loud noises at the dish, Shaw is making that out to be a tall task:
| Shaw | 40 | 2 | 1 | .450 | .488 | .700 | 1.188 | 8.2 |
| Sandoval | 34 | 2 | 0 | .265 | .306 | .559 | .864 | 8.7 |
Shaw has done this sort of thing before, you know. Unheralded going into 2015, the 25-year-old ultimately opened eyes with an .813 OPS and 13 home runs in a 65-game stint in the majors.
However, there is that sneaking suspicion that just can't be ignored: Maybe Farrell gave Sandoval an ultimatum just to light a fire under him?
If so, it's working. Sandoval has collected eight hits in his last 20 at-bats and has also turned it around on defense. As noted by Scott Lauber of ESPN.com, Sandoval made a couple of nifty diving plays against the Miami Marlins Tuesday.
Shaw's numbers won't help him if Sandoval keeps this up. Whereas Shaw can be used as a left-handed bat off the bench at third, first and possibly left field, the Red Sox won't put Sandoval on the bench unless they have absolutely no choice. When you spend $95 million, you want your money's worth.
Predicted Winner: Pablo Sandoval
Houston Astros First Base
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Thought the Cardinals had a good battle going at first base? Wait until you get a load of the Houston Astros.
It's a four-way scrum between de facto favorite Jon Singleton and A.J. Reed, Tyler White and Matt Duffy, and White and Duffy are giving Singleton a challenge:
| Singleton | 44 | 2 | 1 | .136 | .191 | .318 | .510 | 7.8 |
| Reed | 36 | 1 | 0 | .222 | .237 | .361 | .598 | 7.1 |
| White | 35 | 1 | 0 | .371 | .452 | .514 | .967 | 7.0 |
| Duffy | 33 | 3 | 1 | .212 | .316 | .576 | .892 | 7.2 |
Singleton's $10 million contract is the elephant in the room. If he even so much as recovers a little bit, the Astros could use his deal as an excuse to give him the nod.
But with 16 strikeouts in 41 at-bats, Singleton stills looks like too much of a whiff-prone hitter. That should keep the door open for White and Duffy, the former of whom has been especially impressive.
"He just keeps hitting," Astros manager A.J. Hinch told Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. "He's a guy that's had to work for everything in his whole career. He continues to impress with a bat in his hands. He's better at first base than I anticipated."
White has made a believer out of the Chronicle's Evan Drellich, and the Astros could soon follow suit. As much as they'd love to get their money's worth out of Singleton, they're not paying him quite enough to prevent them from taking a chance on White.
Predicted Winner: Tyler White
Toronto Blue Jays Starting Rotation
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Toronto's closer battle is a dandy, but it has nothing on the battle for the No. 5 spot in the rotation.
Aaron Sanchez, Drew Hutchison, Gavin Floyd and Jesse Chavez are all vying for it, and they're not making it easy for Gibbons to pick a winner:
| Sanchez | 20.0 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0.90 | 1.35 | 8.5 |
| Hutchison | 15.1 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0.98 | 3.52 | 9.0 |
| Floyd | 12.1 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0.97 | 2.19 | 7.7 |
| Chavez | 11.1 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 1.24 | 3.97 | 8.7 |
Chavez comes the closest to being the weak link, and that could confirm for the Blue Jays that he's best suited to a long relief role. Sanchez has stood out the most between the other three, and not just because of his numbers.
"He's put on more than 15 pounds of muscle," Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin told Bob Elliott of the National Post. "He had excellent body control and has a fluid throwing motion. The big thing is the breaking ball is now his pitch. He's even throwing it behind in the count."
Because Hutchison and Floyd both have more experience as starters and are also pitching well, it's possible they'll force Sanchez into a bullpen role. But with the 23-year-old living up to the considerable promise he had as an elite prospect going into last season, his dominance this spring indicates that the time is now to see what he can do when turned loose.
Predicted Winner: Aaron Sanchez
Regular-season stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. Spring stats courtesy of MLB.com.
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