
NFL Offseason Scenarios That Could Change Everything We Think About 2016
We often like to believe we have a solid handle on the NFL world in general—that we know which teams are good, which players are set to emerge, which roster holes need to be addressed around the league. The reality, however, is that the NFL world is incredibly fluid and can change in a single moment, with one move or one development.
Take the Houston Texans' signing of quarterback Brock Osweiler in free agency, for example. That set the Texans up with a potential franchise signal-caller, left the Denver Broncos with a void at the position and changed how a run on quarterbacks might unfold during the 2016 draft.
In short, the NFL landscape looks a whole lot different after the signing than it did before.
Today, we're going to take a look at some potential offseason moves that could happen over the next couple of months that could dramatically change our perception of the coming season. How would the Broncos look with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback? What would happen if the Cleveland Browns put Joe Thomas on the trading block?
We're dealing in hypotheticals here—and we are going to have a little fun with these possible moves—but we'll try to keep things grounded in the realm of reality.
No, your favorite team isn't trading for Tom Brady.
Join us in the world of possibilities as we examine possible offseason scenarios that could change everything we think we know about the 2016 NFL season.
Tennessee Trades the No. 1 Overall Pick in the Draft
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The Tennessee Titans will head into this year's draft with the first overall selection and a plethora of needs. One of those needs, however, is not at quarterback. The Titans used their first-round pick on Oregon's Marcus Mariota last year and will presumably keep him at the top of the depth chart for the foreseeable future.
This is why there is a real possibility the Titans could sell the No. 1 pick to a quarterback-needy team in exchange for draft picks. The haul for such a deal would likely be significant.
"I would say that for us to move out of that pick, it's going to take a substantial amount of picks to do that," Titans general manager Jon Robinson recently said, per Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com.
Depending on the terms of a trade—say, something like 2016 and 2017 first-rounders and a 2016 second-rounder—the Titans could conceivably add two additional quality starters over the next two years. It is really worth it for the Titans to have their pick of prospects to bypass such an opportunity? Seeing as how this is a rebuilding team, probably not.
A trade at the very top of the draft could change how we perceive the coming year in a couple of ways. For one, it would create the impression that this new incarnation of the Titans is ready to build a young team with a volume of draft picks. If they land a large bounty in exchange for the first overall pick, we might even start looking at Tennessee as a team with a shrewd business plan.
Of course, we might think the exact opposite about whichever team moves up to make such a deal. We have the gift of hindsight on the trade that sent Robert Griffin III to the Washington Redskins back in 2012. Knowing what we now know about that deal, we could quickly use terms such as "overpaid," "swindled" or "stupid" when talking about the team that pulled the trigger in 2016.
Above all else, such a deal and the player selected with the pick would become major focal points throughout the 2016 regular season.
The Browns Put Joe Thomas on the Trading Block
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Already this offseason, the Cleveland Browns have allowed four starters—tackle Mitchell Schwartz, safety Tashaun Gipson, center Alex Mack and receiver Travis Benjamin—to depart in free agency. The Browns also parted ways with starting linebacker Karlos Dansby.
It's clear at this point that the Browns, who were just 3-13 a year ago, are beginning a slow and arduous rebuild. With a new analytics-driven front office calling the shots, this team will be built slowly through the draft.
This is why it would make sense for Cleveland to trade the one top-end commodity it has remaining—Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas.
Now, the Browns don't appear ready to move Thomas at this time. Team executive Sashi Brown said as much during the NFL annual meetings earlier this week.
"That's not our plan at all," Brown said, per Pat McManamon of ESPN.com. "I know it's been written about a lot. But that's as simple as I can say it."
However, the right kind of offer—possibly one shortly before or on draft day—could cause Cleveland to change its mind.
If Thomas ended up with a contending team like the Denver Broncos or the Seattle Seahawks, it could drastically change our opinion of this year's Super Bowl favorites.
The Broncos won Super Bowl 50, and the Seahawks made it to the divisional round of the playoffs. However, neither team boasted elite pass protection. Pro Football Focus rated Denver 19th overall and Seattle 30th overall in pass blocking for the 2015 season.
Thomas, who was rated second overall among all offensive tackles by Pro Football Focus for 2015, would immediately upgrade the offensive line of virtually any team that acquired him.
For a team with a legitimate chance of seeing the field in Super Bowl 51, he could even be enough to help secure a Lombardi Trophy.
A Contender Signs Greg Hardy
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Free-agent pass-rusher Greg Hardy is still available on the open market despite being a talented and productive player. He appeared in 12 games last season and produced 35 tackles, six sacks, one forced fumble and one interception.
Hardy remains available likely because of the domestic violence incident in which he was involved. His domestic violence charges have since been expunged. However, photographs from the incident do exist, Hardy did serve a four-game suspension last season, and the entire ordeal has a permanent residence in the court of public opinion.
Teams are likely wary of signing Hardy because of the potential fan backlash that could ensue. It's why Ray Rice is unemployed and why teams will likely wait to see how Johnny Manziel's current domestic violence issues unfold before taking a chance on him.
There is good reason for hesitation, of course. Domestic violence is a serious and sensitive issue. It could be easy for some people to interpret the signing of a player with a violent history as a sign that a team—whether true or not—condones that player's past.
The reality is that the NFL is a league where players with talent are going to receive multiple chances, and Hardy has talent at the all-important pass-rusher position.
According to Bleacher Report NFL Insider Jason Cole, multiple teams are interested in signing Hardy but wish to remain under the radar because of potential backlash.
What happens if Hardy lands with a Super Bowl contender? Teams such as the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals have shown in the past a willingness to deal with players who possess off-field issues. If Hardy lands with such a team, it could open up season-long discussions on a number of topics.
Though the move might not accurately reflect a team's own views, having Hardy on a competitive roster would almost certainly create dialogue on domestic violence, the league's stance on the issue and the lengths a team will reach to win at the pro level.
It could also cause us to think differently about Hardy's new team during the 2016 season.
Dallas Cowboys Sign Johnny Manziel
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After Johnny Manziel's latest off-field incident, the Cleveland Browns decided to part ways with the former Heisman Trophy winner.
Now, Manziel is a free agent and employing the services of superagent Drew Rosenhaus. According to Rosenhaus, NFL teams are interested in his client.
"I'm not talking much about him at this point publicly,'' Rosenhaus said, per David Moore of the Dallas Morning News. "I'm really just here talking to teams privately."
Could one of those teams be the Dallas Cowboys? It's certainly possible. Dallas owner Jerry Jones has spoken publicly in the past about coming close to pulling the trigger on Manziel during the 2014 draft, and Manziel did play his high school and college ball in Texas.
Of course, he will have to find some way to put his latest allegations of domestic violence behind him before any team is likely to take a chance. According to Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com, Dallas police are still undergoing an investigation into allegations that Manziel physically abused his girlfriend. Even if he is cleared, he could still potentially face league discipline and cause public backlash against a team that signs him.
This is likely why Dallas is still keeping its distance.
However, Jones still sounds interested in helping Manziel resume his playing career—if the quarterback can get his life back on track.
"What I'm really saying is," Jones said, per David Moore of the Dallas Morning News. "I would in any way offer to help him work to be where we all are rooting for him to be, which is having a successful life and football career. I would do that.''
If Manziel did wind up in Dallas for the 2016 season, it could change viewpoints in a couple of ways—depending on what emerges from the domestic violence case.
Some folks could view the Cowboys negatively the way many viewed the franchise for previously employing Greg Hardy. Others might see Dallas and Manziel as the ultimate reclamation project and a sports story to follow.
Depending on what the Cowboys do in the draft and how Tony Romo plays on the field, the move might even lead to some again look to Manziel as the potential savior of a football team.
The Denver Broncos Acquire Colin Kaepernick
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We know that the Denver Broncos are probably looking to add to their quarterback room this offseason. Their only real veteran option at this point is Mark Sanchez. We also know that the current free-agent options are limited.
What happens, though, if the Broncos decide to add a player who isn't currently available, particularly San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick?
For one, it could change how we perceive the Broncos as we move toward 2016. Denver is a strong team, and Sanchez is an experienced veteran, but adding the potential excitement of Kaepernick might change the entire personality of the Broncos and those who follow the team.
Sure, he had a down year and was eventually benched in 2015, but look up some past highlights and you'll understand why his potential is still intriguing.
If Kaepernick's potential is enough for the Broncos to take a chance on him, then it might also change our perception of the athletic, dual-threat quarterback.
Currently, it feels like the time of the dual-threat quarterback is already over. Johnny Manziel and Robert Griffin III are both unemployed, and Kaepernick is in some sort of San Francisco limbo.
The Broncos are ready to win now. They boast offensive weapons such as Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, as well as a defense that was rated first overall by Pro Football Focus in 2015. Adding Kaepernick to the mix would have the entire football world watching to see if a dual-threat quarterback not named Russell Wilson can take a modern NFL team to the promised land.
Former 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh appears ready to affirm his belief in Kaepernick.
"Anybody that talks to me is going to get a great recommendation that's going to knock their socks off," Harbaugh said of Kaepernick, per Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee.
Of course, the Broncos might have to wait for Kaepernick to become available—which could potentially occur before his 2016 salary becomes guaranteed on April 1. According to Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com, 49ers general manager Trent Baalke has made it clear the team is "nowhere near getting anything done at this point" in terms of a Kaepernick trade.
The Eagles Draft a Quarterback
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Shortly before the start of free agency, the Philadelphia Eagles reached an agreement with quarterback Sam Bradford on a new two-year, $35 million deal. Shortly after the start of free agency, the team added Chase Daniel, who played under new Eagles head coach Doug Pederson with the Kansas City Chiefs.
For now, it appears the Eagles are relatively set at the quarterback position.
So what happens, then, if the Eagles use their first-round pick on a quarterback such as Cal product Jared Goff? It's a realistic possibility, especially after the trade that sent Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to the Miami Dolphins and allowed Philadelphia to move up to the eighth pick in the upcoming draft.
If the Eagles were to draft a future signal-caller, it would immediately add fuel to speculation that they could soon trade Bradford and his two-year deal to another team. Daniel knows Pederson, likely knows his offense well and could be a stopgap while a young quarterback learns the nuances of the NFL game.
That speculated trade might even involved a team with playoff potential such as the New York Jets or Denver Broncos. This would certainly add excitement to the days during and shortly after the draft. If Bradford did eventually end up with another team, it would add an additional storyline to the coming season.
Of course, the big story in Philadelphia would then become this new quarterback of the future, his path to the starting job and everything in between. This would be the case whether or not Bradford remained with the franchise, though trade rumors would persist if Bradford were benched or played poorly in preseason and in the regular season.
Though this scenario might seem a bit unlikely—the Eagles did already add two quarterbacks this offseason, after all—it's definitely possible. Owner Jeff Lurie has already made it clear that he would like his team to draft a quarterback.
"We’re still looking for a third quarterback, somewhere in the draft, like we used to do," Lurie said, per Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com.
Of course, Lurie has given no indication that the team will draft a quarterback eighth overall.
The Jets Don't Reclaim Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick
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The New York Jets got their money's worth out of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick during the 2015 season. The Harvard product passed for 3,905 yards with 31 touchdowns and helped lead the new-look Jets to a respectable 10-6 record. New York narrowly missed the postseason by way of a tiebreaker.
However, the Jets haven't been quick to secure Fitzpatrick's services for the immediate future. Because the two parties appear far apart in negotiations, he is still a free agent—and New York doesn't seem too concerned about that.
"Obviously, we're going to try to sign Fitz back," Jets head coach Todd Bowles said, per Rich Cimini of ESPN.com. "But we have plans in place just in case it doesn't happen."
What exactly will happen if the Jets allow Fitzpatrick to sign elsewhere?
For one, the Jets will look at the prospect of starting Geno Smith, turning to Bryce Petty or chasing a quarterback in the upcoming draft. While New York fans would probably like a look at Petty, and the media would love to throw the Jets into the draft-a-QB grinder, none of these routes appears to make the Jets a better team than if Fitzpatrick were to return.
Allowing him to leave would also mean that another quarterback-needy team would get a seasoned, talented starter to either bridge the gap with a young quarterback or lead a veteran roster toward a championship.
According to Bleacher Report NFL Insider Jason Cole, several general managers around the league view Fitzpatrick as the best quarterback available and believe he would be a perfect fit for the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos, as you already know, are in need of a quarterback but otherwise have a roster built to compete for another Super Bowl. Fitzpatrick landing with the Broncos would almost certainly change how we view the team heading into the 2016 season. Even if he landed with a borderline contender like the Los Angeles Rams, it could flip playoff predictions on their head.
Either way, allowing Fitzpatrick to walk would affect the way we view the Jets and their chances in the coming season.
The Cleveland Browns Don't Draft a Quarterback in Round 1
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The Cleveland Browns will head into the 2016 draft armed with the second overall pick and a serious need at the quarterback position. The general consensus is that Cleveland will take a quarterback such as California's Jared Goff or North Dakota State's Carson Wentz with that pick.
What happens, though, if the Browns don't take a signal-caller at No. 2?
For starters, there's a good chance we'd spend the entire 2016 season talking about how dumb the Browns were for passing on a quarterback there—especially if Wentz or Goff lights up the league with another team as a rookie.
The move could also create a draft-day melee as quarterback-needy teams fight to trade up to a position where grabbing one of the top signal-callers is a realistic possibility. The Dallas Cowboys sit at pick No. 4 and could be looking for a quarterback of the future. Teams could end up clamoring to trade up to No. 3 for their choice of a passer.
This would be a potentially beautiful development for the San Diego Chargers, who own the third overall selection.
Depending on which team winds up with the quarterback that Cleveland passed on, we could head into the 2016 season with fun discussions about more relevant teams. What if the Cowboys snag Wentz at No. 4 to be the successor to Tony Romo? Every poor performance or injury scare for Romo would be filled with intrigue. If the 49ers grab Goff at No. 9 as the foundation for their rebuild? Plenty of eyes would be glued to them as the season approaches.
There is a chance that the Browns will pass on a quarterback here. The team is seriously considering adding former No. 2 overall pick Robert Griffin III as a free agent, according to Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports. This could mean the team isn't sold on this year's quarterback crop.
Cleveland could also skip over a signal-caller for a player it views as more of a can't-miss prospect such as Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey or Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott.
At any rate, our view of the approaching season could be quite different after the draft than it currently is, should Cleveland bypass a quarterback at No. 2.
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