What Notre Dame Pro Day Means for Jaylon Smith's NFL Draft Hopes
With the Notre Dame pro day looming on March 31, several notable Fighting Irish prospects will look to put on a show for NFL scouts and coaches. The 2016 NFL draft will take place less than one month after the pro day, so this final impression is important. The player with the biggest questions to answer is star linebacker Jaylon Smith.
The 6'2" linebacker was a mega-recruit out of Fort Wayne, Indiana. According to 247Sports, he was the second-ranked player in the country, and his composite score of .9986 was nearly perfect. It didn’t take long for him to prove recruiting services right about his talent.
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The Irish eased him in during his true freshman season. Smith immediately stood out in a limited role because of his athleticism and ability to find the ball. He finished his first campaign with 58 total tackles, three passes defensed and one forced fumble. 2013 set him up for a breakout sophomore season.
His first year starting at outside linebacker was a smashing success in 2014. In 13 games, he collected 64 solo tackles, 111 total tackles, nine tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. He made huge strides throughout the season in terms of his instincts and comfort at the position, and he became arguably the best linebacker in the country.
In order to maximize Smith’s talent in his junior season, head coach Brian Kelly made the decision to move Smith into the middle linebacker role. According to Tom Davis of the News-Sentinel (via the official NCAA website), Kelly said Smith is the most talented and versatile player he’s ever coached.
"I haven't coached a player like (Smith) before, period. (Smith) can line up with his hand on the ground," Kelly explained. "He can cover the inside receiver. He can play in the box. He can tackle in open space. There's not much he can't do."
Smith proved Kelly correct in his analysis, as he terrorized defenses in a variety of roles. Whether Smith was asked to be an edge-rusher, coverage linebacker, run-stopper or quarterback spy, he excelled. His senior season featured a career-high 69 solo tackles, 115 total tackles and five passes defensed, and he tied his previous high of nine tackles for loss.
Had he finished his career against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl, Smith would have been a surefire top-10 pick and could have gone higher. But he suffered an untimely knee injury early in the game. His ACL, LCL and possible nerve damage have every interested franchise worried he could struggle to regain his dominant form.
The reports that have come out since the injury—and, more specifically, the NFL Scouting Combine—have been all over the place. NFL Network's Mike Mayock (via Chase Goodbread of NFL.com) reported that at least five teams felt his knee looked bad in the medical portion of the event. And according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, teams think he’ll miss the entire 2016 season, which could further hurt his stock.
The negative news kept pouring in, as Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported that three teams have taken Smith off their draft boards until they can get another look at the knee at his pro day. But it’s important to remember that Smith was only seven weeks off the major surgery at the combine, and it can take up to a year to fully recover. Then, the process of getting back into game shape begins.
Every individual heals in a unique way because of genetics and the severity of the injury. And the fact is that teams simply didn’t know about Smith’s knee at the combine. But his pro day medical check will offer another look at how his knee has fared in the last month.
A positive prognosis from team doctors could completely change the conversation about Smith, even if there’s always a risk his knee fails to fully recover. An area scout told Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he believes Smith could still drop to the late first round.
To see if there was recent precedent for where injured players were selected in the draft, I dug back to the 2003 draft. Since then, only 11 players who had major knee injuries to end their collegiate careers and were considered at least fourth-round values by CBSSports.com were drafted. See the table below for their draft positions and injuries.
| Player | Position | Year Drafted | Team | Overall Selection | Injury |
| Willis McGahee | RB | 2003 | Buffalo Bills | 23rd | Torn MCL and knee fracture |
| Dennis Dixon | QB | 2008 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 156th | Torn ACL |
| Walter Thurmond | CB | 2010 | Seattle Seahawks | 111th | Torn ACL, MCL, PCL |
| Bruce Carter | OLB | 2011 | Dallas Cowboys | 40th | Torn ACL |
| Cornellius Carradine | DE | 2013 | San Francisco 49ers | 40th | Torn ACL |
| Marcus Lattimore | RB | 2013 | San Francisco 49ers | 131st | Dislocated knee, torn ACL, LCL, PCL |
| Dominique Easley | DE | 2014 | New England Patriots | 29th | Torn ACL |
| Brandon Thomas | OG | 2014 | San Francisco 49ers | 100th | Torn ACL |
| Todd Gurley | RB | 2015 | Los Angeles Rams | 10th | Torn ACL |
| Cedric Ogbuehi | OT | 2015 | Cincinnati Bengals | 21st | Torn ACL |
| Ifo Ekpre-Olomu | CB | 2015 | Cleveland Browns | 241st | Dislocated knee and torn ACL |
The returns on these players have been hit or miss. The best success stories were running backs Willis McGahee and Todd Gurley. Gurley’s long-term durability has yet to be seen, but his first-year production was fantastic.
Since the majority of those injured collegiate stars have had more injury issues or have yet to establish themselves, it’s easy to see why evaluators will take a cautious approach with Smith. Burning a first-round pick on someone who may deal with cascading injuries or might not fully recover won’t cost someone his job on its own, but it’s a risk that could turn up the hot seat or be the final straw for someone if it doesn’t pan out.
At some point in the draft, it is likely a general manager will decide Smith’s immense skill set and upside are worth the flier. Will it cost a premium first-round pick or Day 2 investment? Or will he slide to the end of Day 3 like Ifo Ekpre-Olomu in 2015?
Recent history suggests he’ll last no longer than the fourth round. The compensatory picks at the end of the third round could be the sweet spot since teams cannot trade those picks anyway.
As for his ceiling? The best-case scenario could be the middle of the first round.
Smith's stock depends on the medical checks he will undergo on March 31. Hopefully, the results will be promising and Smith can reclaim his status as an elite prospect.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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